questioning SnG FAQ ROI Numbers

[bucci]

Hi Folks,
Quoting the FAQ:

What is a good ROI for SnGs

You need to play at least 200-300 at a given level to get a good read.

25% ok
25% - 35% good
35% - 40% very good
40% - 45% excellent
45% - 50% probably unsustainable
50%+ one of: unsustainable, your lying, you have hacked the poker room

------------
Ok. Right now, I'd love to have 25%.

I'm playing 105 +9 Turbo SnGs on stars. I've played 160 tournaments, and 45% in-the-money finishes with a breakdown of approx:

9.5% first place
14% second
22% third

Over this time, I'm beating the game for a pretty good sum (to me /images/graemlins/smile.gif) and getting about 12% return. While I know I can improve, (especially by winning more at the expense of 3rd place finishes) is it really possible to expect to get 25% or more ROI? The rake alone is 8.5%, meaning I'm beating the game for total of 20.5%

Pls clarify the ROI numbers. I'd be interested in seeing other samples of data (hopefully larger than 160) and if they differ from the FAQ.

thanks for the help!

ps. I'd also like to discuss a bit more intangible benefits of playing a lot of SnG, and maybe quantify their value. For instance, I rack up FPPs like mad, and use them to buy into the 500FPP sattelite to the weekly $215. When I win, I can unregister and use those T$ for SnGs, so don't they translate into real $$?

[rjb03]

These numbers are for the lower buy-in SNGs. Also, ROI includes the rake.

[Avgard]

A couple of thoughts.

First, turbo SNGs are different than regular SNGs. My feeling is that Turbos decreases some skill advantage you may have over other players. The slower the blinds increase, the greater advantage your skill becomes. With Turbos, your forced to loosen up and gamble. I feel your ROI would have to be less because speed tournaments force loose and gamble type situations.

Second, how many seats are in the Turbos that you do. Is it 10 seats with $525 for first, $315 for second and $210 for third. If so, I calculate your ROI as 21.5%. So your numbers could be better than you think.

Third, sometimes those ROI numbers include a rackback program. I read the thread that you quoted and I remember it talking about the rakeback being considered as part of those ROI numbers.

Hope these thoughts help.

[bucci]

Great stuff. Thanks.

they're 9 player SnGs, so the prise distribution isn't quite that good.

Agree on the turbo points. I do like to gamble a bit, and this is a better format for me to do that while still exploiting my advantages... From time to time, i'll play a normal (non-turbo), but I find it's got to be at least $200 buy-in or I can't maintain a good level of play. There are a lot of sharks playing $50 and $100 anyway. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

on another note, I read another post talking about 95% certainty of your expectations, and with only 160 tournaments, my range of error is 30% (3.8/sqrt(160)), so I could theoretically be a -18% loser! /images/graemlins/smile.gif will keep you posted.

[Avgard]

My numbers for 9 seats has you at 9.3% ROI. I would like to see your numbers to see which of us is making the mistake. Here are mine.

I estimated your finishes by the percentage and got this:

1st 15 x 472.50 = 7,082.50
2nd 22 x 283.50 = 6,237.00
3rd 35 x 189.00 = 6,615.00
19,939.50
less buyins 18,240.00
profit 1,699.50

ROI 1,699.50/18240.00 = 9.3%

[rjb03]

When you use your FPPs to buy into the $215 satellites, each fpp is worth $0.016 whether you play the 1 table SNG or the 3 table SNG, so in effect you're playing $8 3 table SNG or a $24 1 table SNG. The values of the fpps in the mtt satellites vary. Obviously, the 1 table SNG is shorter so I'd recommend playing that. Anyways, if you unregister after winning a seat you get tournament dollars to buy into SNGs and MTTs (you can't cash out this money immediately).

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Folks,
Quoting the FAQ:

What is a good ROI for SnGs

You need to play at least 200-300 at a given level to get a good read.

25% ok
25% - 35% good
35% - 40% very good
40% - 45% excellent
45% - 50% probably unsustainable
50%+ one of: unsustainable, your lying, you have hacked the poker room

------------
Ok. Right now, I'd love to have 25%.

I'm playing 105 +9 Turbo SnGs on stars. I've played 160 tournaments, and 45% in-the-money finishes with a breakdown of approx:

9.5% first place
14% second
22% third

Over this time, I'm beating the game for a pretty good sum (to me /images/graemlins/smile.gif) and getting about 12% return. While I know I can improve, (especially by winning more at the expense of 3rd place finishes) is it really possible to expect to get 25% or more ROI? The rake alone is 8.5%, meaning I'm beating the game for total of 20.5%

Pls clarify the ROI numbers. I'd be interested in seeing other samples of data (hopefully larger than 160) and if they differ from the FAQ.

thanks for the help!

ps. I'd also like to discuss a bit more intangible benefits of playing a lot of SnG, and maybe quantify their value. For instance, I rack up FPPs like mad, and use them to buy into the 500FPP sattelite to the weekly $215. When I win, I can unregister and use those T$ for SnGs, so don't they translate into real $$?

[/ QUOTE ]

On first thought, I dont think FPPs should be included only because it is not a constant variable that we all use. Furthermore, converting FPPS into tournament dollars consists of placing in top 9 in a satelite to the Sunday...so for pure consistency's sake, Id say this $ should not be included.

I play stars 15+1 and 25+2 turbos and would probably kill to have your ROI at the 105s. Mine is around 35-40% at 15 level but down there you can always count on half the table being gone by the 100 blinds...well not always, but it is a common occurrence. Our distributions are different in that I have many 4ths and 1sts and not as many 2nds and 3rds. I dont play for first as people advocate but at the same time I am not afraid to get in with the best of it on the bubble but things will happen (i.e. sucked out or it didnt turn out to be the best).

anyway, nice post

pooh

[eastbay]

Those numbers are misleading. They should be graduated per buy-in.

eastbay

[Shanemex]

So every dollar you spend in rake gets you about 8 cents back? (You get 5 FPP per dollar I think). The party poker rake back program is better which gives you 20-25% of the money you spend in entry fees back and you don't have to play a play a tournament to convert it in to real cash.

[bucci]

Hi,
My spreadsheet wasn't in front of me at the time. You're right. My data has some 55+5's in there. Indeed, I'm seeing less ROI at the 105 level, but the $$/tournament is still higher. I've got a big enough bankroll to keep playing at 105, so i'll stay up there and take another measurement once I've got a few hundred more under my belt.

Still, 9% if sustainable is a great ROI!

Thanks for all the posts, guys.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
When you use your FPPs to buy into the $215 satellites, each fpp is worth $0.016 whether you play the 1 table SNG or the 3 table SNG, so in effect you're playing $8 3 table SNG or a $24 1 table SNG. The values of the fpps in the mtt satellites vary. Obviously, the 1 table SNG is shorter so I'd recommend playing that. Anyways, if you unregister after winning a seat you get tournament dollars to buy into SNGs and MTTs (you can't cash out this money immediately).

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think the FPPs are worth more, since If you beat the game then you cash more than average in the freerolls. And people are often pretty impatient in the freerolls.

I find the 9 player satellites particularly soft. Definitely soften than a $50 or $100 S&G.

As to incorporating them into ROI, here's what I do.
First I use Pokertracker:
I don't include it in each tourney, but every time I win freeroll dollars, or 20% bonus $'s for that matter, I add a "fake" tourney into Poker Tracker, or a freeroll tourney that I did not participate in and I edit it to add my winnings. Net, al these freeroll dollars - and they sure addup at Stars appear in my overall ROI, but not my game specific ROI - except as infinite ROI in the freeroll column.

Just my 2 cents and god bless FPPs.

[bucci]

Actually Pooh. I wish I had your ROI at the $25 level.

0.4 * 27 = 10.9

0.09 * 114 = 10.26

You're making more $$/tournament than me, your bankroll requirements are way less, and from what you say, your tournaments take less time! If I can get myself to play well enough down there, I may do just that...

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually Pooh. I wish I had your ROI at the $25 level.

0.4 * 27 = 10.9

0.09 * 114 = 10.26

You're making more $$/tournament than me, your bankroll requirements are way less, and from what you say, your tournaments take less time! If I can get myself to play well enough down there, I may do just that...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry that was misleading though...I was just quoting my PT stats with both 25 and 15s combined. I think my current ratio is about 10-1 15turbos/25turbos so with such a small sample of 25+2 turbos (maybe 20 or 30) I certainly am NOT a 35%+ ROI player at the 25 level but I feel pretty safe to say I am at the 15 level (300+ tracked). So you actually make more loot than me and furthermore I only single table and I work 8 hours a day and only play 4 or 5 a day so its fun money...But point taken...BR requirements IS a consideration in this discussion given that NET profits are not that divergent. I play my BR about 40-50 buyins deep usually so I am definitely a more conservative player than most here as far as buyins and BR (not conservative as far as hand selection at times /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).