all-in on a draw to the nuts?

final table 9 players, top 5 are paid. i have 3,400 there are 3 other players with similar stacks and then 5 with 6,000 plus. blinds are 150/300


dealt AcKc UTG.. rise 300... two caller including agressive big stack on the button...


flop QcTx?c... i have draw to nut staight and flush.. I check.. other player (solid -with slightly less chip than me bets 300.. big stack at button raises 300.. i call .. other player goes all-in... button goes all-in then i go all in....


results do not matter.... should i have gone all-in in this situation on a draw? Should you ever go allin on a draw?..


comments are most appreciated

while it might be nice to allways have a made hand to play, it is likely someone will win the tournament because they did make a draw.


you do not have any chip advantage, in fact you are among the smaller stack group of players, therefore no reason to think you will gain standing thru waiting for others to bust out


and that to the very good draw which you have...9 flush cards plus three 10s...12 outs twice=24 which makes your odds about even money to win, AND they are paying you 2 to 1


that's about as good a drawing situation as you could ever hope for....YES, draw..you may not make it, but what a great chance to become chip leader

Gatorman,


Based on your post, here's what I see:


1) Your raise BTF is too small IMO, here you need to make it T1000 or so to go. Wait a minute... is this a no limit tournament? I assume it is. You need to charge these marginal hands to play. You might have less players to contend with... 3 at most including the chip leading sheriff on the button.


2) Seeing that flop, I shove in the rest of my stack and make your opponents make the difficult choice to call. Not only do you have 12 "clean" outs (flush and Jacks) but also 6 more that can possibly win for you (As and Ks) if they hit. 18 possible outs with 2 cards to come and a chance to become chip leader at a crucial time in the tournament, I'd shove the stack in 99% of the time if not more.


You will not hit every single time, but the odds are clearly in your favor to make an aggressive (but intelligent) move here. On those times that you miss... dem's da breaks. It just doesn't get much more favorable than that in NL He.


One great point that you make... the results don't matter. The point is that you got all your chips in with the best chance to win.


I hope it worked out for you in this instance. Getting there almost guarantees you go deep into the $$$$, which is the overwhelming motivation in my game.


Mike

I say yes draw, odds are with you. If you had flopped nut flush and 2 of your opponents had flopped a set, would it be correct for them to try and draw out on you?

I don't mean to throw monkey wrenches into the works but there's more to this than the others have pointed out.


How many places are they playing? What is the breakdown? How's your read on the rest of the players here? Can you best the field from here on all things being equal?


First, If they are only paying 8 or 9 spots, I would not risk my entire stack here. You clearly have a reasonable amount of chips to last a while. Lots of thinks can happen. In just a couple of small pot takedowns, you could be chipleader or close.


Second, you DO have one of the better drawing hands we get in these situations, but it is STILL JUST a draw...you are more than likely behind. There are more ways to miss this hand than there are to make it.


Third, and most importantly, look at the previous action. If there was a $300 bet and 1 call, sure shove it in. You may win it there and if you get called you then have the draw to the nuts. But it was a bet, then a call, a raise all-in and another call. You can't move anyone. Someone is on a big hand here. You are drawing to catch up and pass but still could hit and lose to a full house.


I'm not saying that it was a terrible call. Far from it. You can be the chipleader if you make your hand, as the others have pointed out. But folding would not be a bad move either. You move up one spot as one of these 2 is probably knocked out here. And you have a reasonable amount of chips to continue on and pick your spots.


I went out 10th once before on a str8 flush open ended draw. I think I figured it out later and I had 21 outs x 2 and was getting 4 to one. I still busted out on the bubble as they paid out 9 spots. It still haunts me to this day, what if!


Keep playing hard!

"I went out 10th once before on a str8 flush open ended draw. I think I figured it out later and I had 21 outs x 2 and was getting 4 to one. I still busted out on the bubble as they paid out 9 spots. It still haunts me to this day, what if!"


I hope you mean what if it had come in, not what if you had folded :-)


Keep playing hard yourself !


Andy.

thanks for comments... FYI the results --- i missed the draw and busted out...i was up against a set and the button made a set on the river.. therefore didn't have 2 of the outs... my thinking was ...I didn't have a skill advantage (my short stack play has a lot of weaknesses) and that i needed to double-up to get into the $$$ and that this was my "best chance" to double up ..If my short stack play was better.... i probably would have folded... thanks again....

Actually, I did mean what if I had folded. I probably would have finished mmuch higher than 10 and could have won it.

Here is a simple rule you should follow until you practice more and learn when to break the rule.


If you're the first one in, and have a raising hand, always make it 3x the big blind in NL or PL. So, if the blinds are 100, 200, then you should make it 600 to go. Until you have specific, clear reasons to raise some other amount, do this every time. If someone has limped in before you, make it 4x. If 2 limpers, make it 5x.


Finally, anytime the raise mentioned above requires half or more of your stack, raise all-in instead.


On the given hand, a better raise preflop would've been 900. Then, when the flop came, you have 12 to 18 outs as others have mentioned, making you a favorite most of the time even when you're called, so bet the flop, and bet it all-in. Even against a set you're not much of a dog, and when they only have no pair or 1 weak pair or the like, they will often fold, giving you an immediate win.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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