Standard semi-bluff? NL100 hand

[jslag]

Party NL100 Hold'Em, Blinds $1/$2

Stacks:
- Hero (Button) $133.15
- Villain (BB) $171

Two players from middle position limp in. On the button, I limp in with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB completes and BB (Villian) checks.

Flop is 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. ($10)

BB leads out for $8.

Folded around to me, I call. I like these types of bellybuster draws, they are very deceptive when you hit and can win big pots.

Turn is the 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. ($26)

BB bets $12. ($38)

I think for awhile and raise to $45. I think most of my outs are clean, as I don't put Villain on a bigger diamond draw here. Pretty sure he has a a pair of Jacks and not much else.

Good play? Should I have just called in hopes of hitting my hand?

I felt that I might be able to steal the pot right there so I took a shot. Curious what others would do here.

j.

[BobboFitos]

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Folded around to me, I call. I like these types of bellybuster draws, they are very deceptive when you hit and can win big pots.


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Thanks Doyle!

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Good play? Should I have just called in hopes of hitting my hand?


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I like it if he's willing to lay down just a pair of jacks here /images/graemlins/wink.gif

That said - if he has more than a pair of jacks, and choses to reraise you, you will of course call whatever he reraises you as you now have potentially 15 outs, (DBB straight + 4 flush) but you would've made an initial mistake of reopening the betting when he was giving you a great price to draw. So... Against a passive player I like it. Typical 6max party aggression is forefront, so Im not sure.

The thing is if he only has something like a pair of jacks if you hit your hand on the river you probably wont get paid off, and if you miss, you'll regret not winning it on the turn. So I like the semibluff - albeit it's not standard (a turn semibluff)

Actually, it really looks strong, a limp, flop call, turn raise, so well played.

[schwza]

i'd just call here. he's making it nice and cheap for you to draw - in the words of another 2+2'er, why negotiate? you'll also have more $ left behind if you do hit.

[BobboFitos]

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i'd just call here. he's making it nice and cheap for you to draw - in the words of another 2+2'er, why negotiate? you'll also have more $ left behind if you do hit.

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Schwza; I would like a call if he has any reason to suspect he could actually USE the money left behind for the river, but that's not the case... He said he thought BB only had weak pair of jacks, so I dont know how much value he'd ellicit if he made his hand on the river. Although he's being priced in I think the semibluff raise here is the more optimal play...

[BobboFitos]

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i'd just call here. he's making it nice and cheap for you to draw - in the words of another 2+2'er, why negotiate? you'll also have more $ left behind if you do hit.

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Schwza; I would like a call if he has any reason to suspect he could actually USE the money left behind for the river, but that's not the case... He said he thought BB only had weak pair of jacks, so I dont know how much value he'd ellicit if he made his hand on the river. Although he's being priced in I think the semibluff raise here is the more optimal play...

[soah]

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and can win big pots

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I felt that I might be able to steal the pot right there

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These two statements seem to be mutually exclusive... either he's willing to play a big pot, or he's not.

As for semi-bluffing, it depends on your opponent I guess. Some of them are not going to ever fold to a raise with any pair. Given that he has led out twice he must have something that he likes and trying to make bad players lay down decent hands is suicidal. Against a weak-tight player it's perhaps a better move if they'll fold their weaker holdings. And if they do call the raise then you can be pretty certain that they have a good enough hand to call a pretty large bet if you hit on the river.

[jslag]

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Schwza; I would like a call if he has any reason to suspect he could actually USE the money left behind for the river, but that's not the case... He said he thought BB only had weak pair of jacks, so I dont know how much value he'd ellicit if he made his hand on the river. Although he's being priced in I think the semibluff raise here is the more optimal play...

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To be honest, I can't be sure on the strength of his jacks, I just knew it was jacks. But since he's in the BB, I'm more prone to think he has a weak kicker and is trying to protect his hand here.

Bobby, I agree with you on the raise. I pondered a call, but I thought I could win the pot right there with a large raise. If he calls my raise (let's say he did hit two pair), then I have a lot of outs (unless he's got a bigger flush draw) against him and he would be almost obligated to call any river bet/raise I make.

I guess this isn't a "standard" semi-bluff, but I recall a semi-bluffing example in Theory of Poker about picking up a flush+straight draw on the turn and IIRC Sklansky points out that it's a great time to semi-bluff even on the turn.

Results: Villain goes into the tank. With about 1 second left on his timer, he folded. Afterwards, he said "argh, what did you have?!", "well, nice bet". So maybe he did have KJ or AJ there, who knows. Nice to know it made him squirm a bit. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DBowling]

If youre pretty sure the BB isnt on a flush draw, youve got a lot of bluffing outs. The turn gives you a ton of outs that will probably get paid off. Id probably flat call the turn, and then raise any heart/diamond/straight card on the river.

[soah]

Players at this level will pay off scare cards way too much. If you're going to bluff-raise, do it early in the hand when you still have outs (and when you can make them consider the possibility of facing more big bets on later streets.) A river bluff-raise against these players is a lot of variance without any decent EV.

[dmk]

Looks standard. Do you ever raise preflop in this situation?

[jslag]

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Looks standard. Do you ever raise preflop in this situation?

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I will raise suited connectors occasionally. Just depends on the table. I would less inclined to raise with 1-2 gappers than something like JTs. That said, it's not completely necessary at this level of play... I'd rather make that type of raise against opponents who know me well.

J.

[BobboFitos]

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Results: Villain goes into the tank. With about 1 second left on his timer, he folded. Afterwards, he said "argh, what did you have?!", "well, nice bet". So maybe he did have KJ or AJ there, who knows. Nice to know it made him squirm a bit.

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NH

[jslag]

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If youre pretty sure the BB isnt on a flush draw, youve got a lot of bluffing outs. The turn gives you a ton of outs that will probably get paid off. Id probably flat call the turn, and then raise any heart/diamond/straight card on the river.

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Excellent point, DBowling. Unfortunately, I didn't know for sure if he had some like Jd Td or Qd Jd, etc. However, I appreciate your comments, I'll keep that in mind next time. Might be able to win an extra bet from him.

Only issue I see is that a lot players will fold to turn or flop raises, but rarely to river raises because they get greedy when there's a lot of money in the pot. They will convince themselves to make crying calls, often defeating your river bluffs. Guess it really depends on the player. A lot of NL100 players cannot make big river laydowns even when the cards and their instincts tell them they're beat.

[BK_]

you shouldnt make this move unless you have stats or notes on the guy. many nl100 players wont even fold top pair there. so absent a read, play it safe and just call. if you do this, you will likely get paid off by both good and bad players. also, the problem with your raise is that it leaves you in a crappy position if he happens to have a big hand and raises all in.

if your stack was short enough to push, semi bluffing would be better since your implied odds if you hit would be smaller than if you had a big stack, and also since you are gauranteed to see the last card if he wakes up with a hand. i think stack size is an interesting point here.

so basically your decision on whether to semi bluff should depend on 2 things: his skill and your stack size. in general, the smaller your stack size, the better semi bluffing here would be (except at levels where you cant make a pot sized raise). also, the better your opponent, the better the semi bluff is. here, you have a large stack and an unknown opponent.

last, he is giving you great odds with his turn bet. if he didnt give you good odds but you thought he semi bluffing would be +EV, it would be the best move. however, even if semi bluffing is +EV here, it is likely that flat calling is MORE +EV.

all signs point to call

[BK_]

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Players at this level will pay off scare cards way too much.

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right.

except the rest of your post sounds like you thought he raised the river, though he actually raised the turn.