Hand Analysis: QQ Facing a River Raise

[jslag]

Stars $1/2 NLHE (9 handed)

Stacks:
- Hero (UTG) $252.20
- Villain (MP1) $303.15

I am dealt Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG. I open raise to $12.

MP1 calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop is 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. ($27)

I lead out with a bet of $18. MP1 calls.

Turn is K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. ($45)

I check. MP1 checks.

River is a deuce for a final board of: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($45)

I lead out on the river for $20. MP1 thinks for a bit and then raises me $40 to $60. The pot is now $125.

Your move and why? Results and my analysis will follow after some replies are in.

Thanks,

jslag

[kuro]

This is a really tough hand. I think you need more information to come up with what to do. Is the villain tight or loose, passive or aggressive? Does he slow play alot? Would he call your raise with AQ? Does he care about pot odds or does he chase?

Preflop: You raised utg and got a caller. He's got to put you on a big hand to call your raise here. He smooth called you so it's probably not Aces. Your raise is about 3% of his stack, so he could be playing speculative hands against you like any pocket pair or suited connectors looking to crack a big pair. AK is pretty automatic call for most players as well. AQ less likely but possible as well.

Flop: You raise 2/3 the pot and he flat calls. He thinks he's ahead. I'd guess that he flopped a set, a straight, or he has kings. In all of these cases you're beat.

Turn: You both checked. If he was chasing with AK he made his hand.


River: You bet 20 and he raises you. Why did you lead out? There is a really strong chance that you are up against a set, TPTK, or a straight. Those aren't hands that most people lay down to such a small bet. By betting here you're trying to induce him to do what? You're probably behind so why not just check and reluctantly call a small raise. Now the bet is bigger and you're probably going to reluctantly call because of the size of the pot and lose more money.

[ClaudeX]

I would fold!

And I'd put him on having hit a set on the flop or having QJs. Those are the only hands which allow him to play like that. Calling the flop with 88-TT could be justified, though I doubt many will call 6BB with QJs. With that flop there really aren't many hands that he can call with - and fewer that he should not raise on the turn with. KQ and JJ-AA really can't check on the turn. Call, call, check and reraise smells of very powerful hand. Get out.

ClaudeX

[Tilt]

Well, I'd be willing to bet that he has not made a set. He'd have played that with more strength against that board, fearing that you have JJ or QQ and you will hit a straight on him before he gets his money in.

I'd also be willing to rule out that he has AK. I can't see why he would check behind that on the turn, again against a connected board.

So, the only hand that you can beat that could make sense given his betting to me is JJ, and that is a stretch. There are some poorly played hands I can conceive that beat yours, but they indicate bad play. KJ? makes sense postflop, though its an awful preflop call. A flopped straight is possible but id be surprised at the preflop call again.

So - is he a good player? If so I'd say hes bluffing AQ cause you showed some weakness - call. If he is not a good player, fold. With no reads, its tough, but i would fold. By the way, if I am him, its pretty easy to spot your hand by the river... this is a good place for a bluff.

[okayplayer]

Your play has to be pretty read-dependent, but I think I'd fold. I agree that it doesn't look like a set here...but maybe QJ? I think your bet would've served a much better purpose on the turn. Though your bet looks pretty weak (screams QQ/JJ), and is almost asking for a raise - that would be the reason to call.

[jslag]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'd be willing to bet that he has not made a set. He'd have played that with more strength against that board, fearing that you have JJ or QQ and you will hit a straight on him before he gets his money in.

I'd also be willing to rule out that he has AK. I can't see why he would check behind that on the turn, again against a connected board.

So, the only hand that you can beat that could make sense given his betting to me is JJ, and that is a stretch. There are some poorly played hands I can conceive that beat yours, but they indicate bad play. KJ? makes sense postflop, though its an awful preflop call. A flopped straight is possible but id be surprised at the preflop call again.


[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much nailed my thought process before I made my decision on the river.

What can he beat me with? I only played an hour with this player, and he was fairly solid preflop. Here's what I figured:

1) Why would anyone play a set like this? It'd be a waste.
2) Why would he check the turn if he had AA, KK, AK, or KQ? No, of course not. Unless he was a REALLY tricky player, and I didn't read him as being that sort of player.
3) I didn't really believe he had QJ or 76. Again, my read here. I also didn't care if he had this, because I love the fact he'd call me preflop with QJ, 76, T9, 98, etc.

Many of those advocating a fold said they thought he hit a set, had an overpair, or maybe paired a K on the turn. I just don't see any of those hands played the way he played them.

Perhaps I missed a bet on the turn, but I felt AK was a strong possibility, so I checked thinking he would bet. He didn't.

So, I called. Villain turns over A/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, and proceeds to tell me I made a "dumb call", but "nh anyway".

I really enjoyed making that call and being correct on my read and analysis of his play. If I were more confident, I might have been able to make a raise on the river.

Thanks for the responses, this was one of the tougher hands I'd played in recent sessions.

j.