play this hand?

4 hands to go until the Big blind. I have T1800 and am the short stack. two tables left with approximately 56K in play blinds are 200-400 limit will double in approx. 7 minutes (just after my blinds) Table has been somewhat aggressive with bigger stacks quick to pounce on smaller ones.


dealt 3-3.


play or not?

Who gets paid and how much?


Is this limit or NL?


If you raise (to 800 in limit or all-in in NL), how often will they all fold? If you raise in limit and get called, how often will they fold if they don't flop a pair or a big draw?


Even if the blinds don't go up until after you post them, you'll be down to 1200 if you post and fold, which just isn't enough. You'll barely have enough to raise after this, and won't have any chance at making somebody fold. With 4.5 bets, you do have enough to make a blind hand fold unless it's a pretty decent hand, as they are risking 3.5 more bets to take you on. When you're down to 2 bets, this won't happen unless the blind is way too tight.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Who gets paid and how much?


top five get paid. two full tables left.


Is this limit or NL?


limit


If you raise (to 800 in limit or all-in in NL), how often will they all fold? If you raise in limit and get called, how often will they fold if they don't flop a pair or a big draw?


They were all big stacks (except me), and all seemed to love putting the shorter stacks in (that's how the shorter stacks had been building up to that point). It probably would have been heads up if I raised, but It probably would have been all in also. whomever felt like dancing would have come over the top, leaving me with ~600. As you point out below, that's far too little to work with if I muck on the flop, so playing this hand essentially commits me to the river.


Even if the blinds don't go up until after you post them, you'll be down to 1200 if you post and fold, which just isn't enough. You'll barely have enough to raise after this, and won't have any chance at making somebody fold. With 4.5 bets, you do have enough to make a blind hand fold unless it's a pretty decent hand, as they are risking 3.5 more bets to take you on. When you're down to 2 bets, this won't happen unless the blind is way too tight.


All agreed. So, what do you think of 3-3 now?

Unless, I have a read on the other players at my table, I muck this puppy.


Even heads up the only hand you are a favorite over is 2x. Every other hand on the table has a minimum of 6 outs to beat you, if you are not dominated by them already.


To top it off if you get two callers - now there are 4 overcards - one of them is going to hit!

It's a close call. With 33, you are likely ahead of the one person who puts you in, but not by much. If it's the big blind, you only have the little bit of dead money from the SB, while if it's another player, you've got 1.5 bets in dead blind money, which makes this hand look good.


The issue here isn't even if this hand has +EV, but does it have more than what you're likely to get if you wait? You're not likely to get another pair before the blind hits, but you will probably get at least one hand that's A high or K high. With 33, you're going to be just slightly ahead of the A9 or KJ or whatever that plays with you. If you catch a big A like AJ and get played with by A5, you're a bigger favorite.


Flip a coin here (mentally, no tells), or play it or not as your personal level of aggression dictates. Let me ask you this, if you knew you were going to pick up something like KK in the next couple of hands, would you rather play 33 so if you win you have more chips and can win even more with KK, or are you thinking the 33 is now an easy fold, because you can wait for KK to make your move? The more aggressive player will play the 33, while the more passive player will not. You're still very far from the money, so suriving an extra round isn't meaningful. You need to gather chips.


I would play the 33 most of the time. If it were down to 8 or so players, I would muck and hope to find a better hand in the next few before the blind.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I would muck and wait. I think you should do a better job of estimating stack sizes however. The average stack size should be $3000 if there are 18 players left. For you to be the small stack and many other large stacks does not make sense. You are only 1200 below the average. Nobody should be comfortable with this level unless they have about $10000 which means they have about 1/5 of the chips. I can't imagine there are short stacks being abused in this game.