Bet all the money you have in the world on a 10 to 1 coin flip?

[A_C_Slater]

Would you wager all the money you have in the world on a coinflip with someone giving you 10 to 1 odds?

[daryn]

no

[Thythe]

Anyone who votes yes is just an idiot.

[daryn]

well that's not necessarily true. what if you only have like $100 to your name? hell even if i only had $1,000 to my name i'd have to do this. i can always make $1,000 back easy.

[DBowling]

Im only 20 years old. The net value of everything i own is not that much. Maybe $20,000. I have excellent credit. I have a job. I have the ability to make playing poker.

Given my age, available credit (at low interest rates), ability to generate new income, and relative low net value, i cannot pass up on this offer.

[NLSoldier]

I'm 18. My BR is under 10k. My college funds are in an account my parents control so I wouldnt be able to bet them. I have no car, no house, basically nothing of value except my computer. How could I not take this bet?

[mmbt0ne]

Same situation with me. If I had to throw my car in there, I might think a little longer and harder, but I'd still probably do it. I've got plenty of time in life to make the money back. And how many chances at this age am I going to have to get 270k like that.

[lastchance]

Yup, same here. ^^

[wacki]

And here ^^^^

I'm poor (grant money), but I love my job.

[astroglide]

just cash, not all belongings? i'd do it

[A_C_Slater]

In the book Super System Doyle tells a story where a millionaire says to him (rough quote) 'If someone offered me a coin flop giving 10 to 1 odds for all my money in the world I wouldn't do it. I've just got too much land and money invested now.'

Doyle replies that he would definetly take the bet claiming that if he lost he would be confident he could get the money back anyway.

I tend to accept the first guy's viewpoint, as I would be scared I would end up starving on the steet. Afterall, it takes money to make money.

[mikech]

a variation on this question: if you HAD to put your life savings on the line, which of these two bets would you take? a coinflip where you're paid 10 to 1, OR a wager where you're 10 to 1 to win but for which you're paid 1 to 1 (for example, a roulette wheel with 11 numbers and you just have to avoid 1).

[EliteNinja]

Yes, if I bust out, I can apply for a student loan to live off of. And there's Employment Insurance for a year, for when I'm not in school.

[nothumb]

This question hits home on the issue of expected utility vs. expected value. One well known function of expected utility in money is that the first million is the most important; or more generally, that the use value of money goes down (relatively speaking) as you get more. So you guys with 100,000 in the bank would not be wrong to decline.

But guys like me, with little or nothing in the bank and no assets, would be idiots not to take it. In fact, I would put my truck and my computer up as collateral, and gladly. Assuming a fair toss, of course.

NT

[GuyOnTilt]

what if you only have like $100 to your name? hell even if i only had $1,000 to my name i'd have to do this. i can always make $1,000 back easy.

I think most people should take the bet even if they're worth well over $1,000. I voted no, but after thinking about it for a bit, I think I should choose yes. 50% of the time I'd be absolutely dead broke, but I'm pretty sure I could find a stake for $20k or so and be back where I am right now within 12 months. A year out of my life working to get back would suck, but it wouldn't be the end of the world and not really a huge deal. The other 50% of the time, I'd be just shy of being a millionaire, which would be freaking awesome and would give me a lot of options and have a TON of benefits for me. So after rethinking it, I'm absolutely positive I should take the bet.

GoT

[ThaSaltCracka]

for some reason when I looked at this first I didn't realize it was 50-50 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif, anyways, I take this in an instant.

[tolbiny]

its all about how much better your life would become with the money compared to how much worse it would suck without the money right?
If i lost my house, 7K in the bank and was to be turned out on the street tomorrow with no real prospects of where to go, then hell no i wouldn't take the bet.
But knowing that my brother would give me a place to stay (and even approve of taking the bet in all likelyhood) and that once you have a place of residence and food to eat money isn't that hard to come by i would take it.
But i would be hella nervous.

[GuyOnTilt]

for some reason when I looked at this first I didn't realize it was 50-50

Yeah, being dead broke 50% of the time sucks, and that's why Iinitially thought no way. I'd have no car, no furniture, no computer, no clothes, no money for food, rent, phone, NOTHING. 50% of the time! Sucky. But when I thought about how I'd go about building money back up, I realized it wouldn't be that hard provided I could get a stake for $20k-$30k, which I'm almost positive I could. I'd have to change my lifestyle for a few months, but I could deal. So the pro's far outweigh the cons for me and I should take the prop. If getting staked wasn't an option and I'd have to get a job and/or live to with Mom and Dad and/or go back to school, I'd probably go back to not taking the bet.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

But i would be hella nervous.

No shit. Another thing I factored in was how bad/long of a depression I might experience if I lost. I'm positive I would to some degree or another, but I have no clue how much.

GoT

[ThaSaltCracka]

eh, I would take it because I am basically living pay check to pay check and have a steady job. But losing would suck, cuz my car would be gone /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[GuyOnTilt]

But losing would suck, cuz my car would be gone

Good thing Seattle has such a great mass-transit system. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

GoT

[pudley4]

Do you mean just cash, or all assets (car, house, retirement savings, etc)

I have a wife and 4 kids. If it's just the cash, then yes. If it's all assets...probably not.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
But losing would suck, cuz my car would be gone

Good thing Seattle has such a great mass-transit system. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]true, I may have to reconsider then /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a wife and 4 kids.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you intend to estimate their value?

[Porcupine]

I voted yes. Basically because if I lost all my money (and assets), but kept my job I could continue my current lifestyle w/o too much change, although it would suck to lose my stocks, bank accounts, etc. that I've built up over the years. However, increasing everything 10x would allow a significant upgrade in my lifestyle.

[ilya]

I would take 2:1. I don't have a lot of money, I'm single, and I'm young.

[BeerMoney]

I have about 20 grand. I would do this in a heart beat. If I win, I change my lifestyle. If I lose, I just lose what I have, but my lifestyle would remain the same. I would absolutely do this. If anybody would like to give me this opportunity, please let me know.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]

I have about 20 grand. I would do this in a heart beat. If I win, I change my lifestyle. If I lose, I just lose what I have, but my lifestyle would remain the same. I would absolutely do this. If anybody would like to give me this opportunity, please let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why the hell would anyone give you 10 to 1 odds on a coinflip? Cause you're so friggin' special? This is purely a hypothetical situation that occurs in the bizarro world.

[DeezNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who votes yes is just an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who make blanket statements like this to "prove" how smart they are is an idiot.

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to accept the first guy's viewpoint, as I would be scared I would end up starving on the steet. Afterall, it takes money to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it is true that poker players have no other marketable skills. I would do this in a heartbeat and I have what I consider a decent net worth. The upside to taking a few years off and buying some nice income properties to set you up even further is easily worth more than a couple years of working and playing cards to gain it all back.

For me, you would have to get down to around 3-1 for me not to seriously consider it.

DN

[tolbiny]

Who calls the coinflip?
The added stress of calling it myself and losing might just push me over the edge.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
Who calls the coinflip?
The added stress of calling it myself and losing might just push me over the edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

The coin designation is decided before the flip and written down in various offical documents with elaborate looking scrolls surrounding them.

[Cyrus]

: fucking Kelly.

A Kelly FAQ (http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm)

E. O. Thorp on Kelly (http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/paper.htm)

Kelly Calculator (http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/DSROR.htm)

...OK, some more words: You never, ever, ever bet all your money in any bet anywhere if it is not probability 1.0 that you'll win. Anyone who advises you any different (A) has a vastly erroneous idea of what is "life time bankroll" --think PV of all future inflows, man--, (B) does not understand at all the risk concept, or (C) is Bill Gates.

Note, please, that even with probability 1.0, you should not wager all your lifetime's worth in a bet, because of the inherent instability in the cosmos. Probability 1.0 is never truly 1.0, sorry.

[Cyrus]

"In the book Super System Doyle tells a story where a millionaire says to him (rough quote) 'If someone offered me a coin flop giving 10 to 1 odds for all my money in the world I wouldn't do it. I've just got too much land and money invested now.'

Doyle replies that he would definetly take the bet claiming that if he lost he would be confident he could get the money back anyway."

Doyle is a world class poker player and a colossus of the game but his ideas of optimal betting are way off.

(For instance, the bankrupt player would have to have a bankroll to start his climb anew. Being staked is an answer but then the time factor, for "getting it all back", becomes even more of a cramp.)