Folding AK 3 handed, trying to squeak into 2nd

[borisp]

OK so here is the situation. 3 handed, 200/400 blinds, 10$ Party SNG. I am in the small blind with AK, having posted 200 of my 300 so it is 100 for me to call. Button has 500. Button limps leaving him 100. I fold hoping to watch the BB bust the button and squeak into 2nd place. Of course this doesnt happen and I would have won the pot (otherwise why would I be posting? hehe). So the question is was my move correct? This hand is immediately after making a similar move in the BB, where the button (huge chip leader) had raised and the SB had called (which is how he was left with 500 and me with 300 going into the next hand). So even if the other players are morons it is obvious I have given up on 1st and am hoping to watch my way into 2nd. But in any event even if I triple up with AK I still have only 900 which is not competitive. On the other hand if I beat the button but he still beats the BB he is all in next hand in the BB, and maybe he goes all in and loses anyway. So thanks in advance for replies.

Boris

[Chief911]

I think this was an incredibly foolish fold. Now if the button had pushed, then it MIGHT be acceptable to fold here. Yet if you triple up (Which is likely) you leave the hand with 900 chips, and a decent shot at making something happen (Not to mention the Button would have either 0 or 600 left at that point, and posting a SB.

In a situation like this I think you have to push (Call).

Now if we are talking about the difference between 4th and 3rd, that's a whole different ball of wax. But you have made the money, play for first (YES, you could win this if you had made the call).

Nick

[ChrisV]

This is a very close decision. BB is forced allin, either this hand or next hand, and essentially has a 50% chance of losing the hand. If this occurs, you come second automatically. If you call with AK, you have a 48% chance of winning vs two random hands. However BB wins the side pot 50% of the time, so you only auto-second 24% of the time. BB is forced allin the next hand if he wins the side pot and if you and the chip leader both call only wins 1/3 of the time, which gives you another 16% chance (overall) or so of coming second. You get additional chances when BB wins that hand but you beat the chip leader for the side pot. Also you have (relatively) quite a good chance of coming first should you go allin with AK and win 900 chips. Your chances are probably about 10%. You get double the gain for 2nd->1st as you do for 3rd->2nd, so that equates to an extra 20% or so.

Alternatively if you call allin, BB may fold. But then you have AK vs a random hand and will win 65% of the time and BB will be in deep trouble, forced allin three times in a row before you are forced allin again.

If you followed those rather scrappy thoughts, calling with the AK comes out on top. It's fairly close though.

[A J Carisse]

I wouldn't call this incredibly foolish - in fact it's close enough to deserve some real thinking. I disagree that when it's 3 handed you necessarily play for first. In fact you're throwing money away often times when you do. A case like this is an extreme example. You've got no business thinking about first with 100 chips /images/graemlins/smile.gif However there's some real money available in finishing 2nd. This needs to be your ONLY concern here.

So is folding the AK the right move here? We have to look at what your chances are with the fold first.

Button has the option here. If he's raised by the BB, he can fold it (after he's seen you act), or he can fold to any bet thereafter, and stay in. This isn't good. If he goes out, great. If he loses and hangs around though, he's going to be on the BB next hand, putting him all in with 100. If he wins, he's going to double up probably, and you're in deep crap.

We'll assume you use the same strategy next hand though if he loses and keeps the 100. If he wins that, he's got 200 now and you've still only got 100. You're both in with a 1/3 random chance of staying alive.

This isn't a good predicament to be in. From this, we can see that not only do you have to go for it now with the AK, but probably should with any kind of good hand - anything that gets you the favorite 3 way.

Here's a case where you might want to fold the AK. Same situation, but you're on the BB and have 100 extra. 2nd place stack, with 1000 goes all in. Huge stack calls. Your best chance to move up in this case would be to hope the big stack takes him out.

A.J.

[borisp]

OK so re-evaluating my original post it is stupid to say 900 chips is "not competitive". Thanks for the number crunching... it makes it clear that calling is the best play. Backing up one hand, I had folded for 300 more in the BB, getting 6:1 vs two hands, with 9-5o. As I mentioned, SB had called the button raise leaving him with 500, then they checked it down (argh). So I guess my play was unduly influenced by this previous fold, seeing as how I was irrationally tied to this strategy of "watching" my way into 2nd. I think I was getting odds to call with the 9-5, if not pot odds then the prize equity makes up for it since a 2100 stack puts me in serious contention for the top prize. Unfortunately in this case two wrongs did not make a right. Thanks again,

Boris

[rachelwxm]

I am not good at English reading, having some trouble understanding your post. Do you care to elaborate? I think your analysis is interesting and maybe I am too lazy to guess what you implied. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

This situation happens so rare but it is helpful to know the right move. I would not fold here and I am curious as to see why this is close. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think botton has a pretty strong hand and would like you to complete. No matter what you do, he would call allin PF if necessary. If bb check, botton would fold if flop miss him badly and bb bet out. And if I am chip leader, once you complete, I would push any two.

[ChrisV]

Well it doesn't end up being particularly close, but the reason there's a case to look at is because if you fold, button is forced allin either this hand or next hand when he posts up his 100 as BB. Assuming he has an ordinary sort of hand, this puts you straight into second about 50% of the time. If you call, you only win the hand 48% of the time and 50% of that time button wins the side pot and has 400 chips to your 900 and a decent chance of stealing second from you. I'd estimate your chances of coming better than third are only 40-45% if you call. What makes this a call is the vastly improved chance of coming first.

You shouldn't assume button has a good hand just because he limped in. He's just trying to get you into a 2-on-1 situation and maximise the chances of you busting.