Foxwoods 10K event hand question

[Daliman]

OK, a friend of mine just played this hand at the foxwoods event. Going off of his description of the hand, what are your actions, opinions?

P.S. I will give actual results of hand tomorrow.

[SossMan]

I voted for fold to the reraise. If your stack was deeper (like 40-50k), I prefer flat calling and seeing a flop. If your stack is shorter, I would just push preflop.

If I call (?), I'm certainly pushing on that flop. A free card could prove disasterous.

I voted for the bottom distribution, just because it was the closest to mine, but it still wasn't all that close.

I would put a normal range of hands here for a big stack facing an EP raise to: AA-TT, AK/AQ.
There will be the random big stack who might splash around with 88 or AJs, but there are probably just as many who will only make this raise with AA-QQ/AK. So, i think that range is pretty good.
That puts the breakdown at about 33/10/57 (overpair/underpair/overcards) ignoring the lone JJ.

Vs. that range, I would fold. That's the crappy part of having the dreaded 13-20x stack. It makes for tough decisions with marginal hands.

[zaxx19]

Really hard lay but i let it down after a long long pause...maybe im being bamboozled but this reraise looks like a dare for me too move in at which time he is pot stuck and WILL HAVE TOO CALL since there isnt a ton in the pot otherwise i think this is what he wants.

[ZeeJustin]

FWIW, I voted fold.

[MLG]

I voted for fold. I can't imagine calling unless I was going to move-in on any flop, but I think the stack sizes aren't really right for that move. 10-20 BBs is the hardest sized stack to play in my opinion.

[bads33d]

Given his big stack, he can bully with a wide variety of hands here, specially small pocket pairs.

Given your stack size, I think he knows your committed, and would I most likely fold, as he either has ak aa kk qq.

I really like limping from utg with JJ, as a raise usually always gets called, and its hard to get a favorable flop with them.

[The Camel]

I am shocked how many players say they would fold preflop.

Against an agressive player you are giving up way too much equity.

Against a very tight player it *might* be a fold.

[Daliman]

Ty for your responses. FWIW, I said fold, and put %'s about 40/10/50, (yeah, i know that wasn't an option. But i been doing alot of thinking about it, and it's MY post, dammit.)

Also FWIW, as many of you may have been able to tell, the flop was seen. My friend reraised allin, and was insta-called by KK, and lost.

My take is similar to most. JJ just too vulnerable here, and from UTG+1, it seems to me that athe raise to 8500 is all too callable. Only about 2/3rd pot raise. If that's me on the button, I know that UTG+1 HAS to be a strong raise, and put him anywhere from TT-AA and AQ-AKs, almost all hands that can stand a reraise under normal circumstances. I personally think the raise size speaks volumes. He WANTED a call. So I fold, not wanting to have a likely 45% minimum chance to bust out, with a just as likely 4-1 against. THe fact that I said he had been pushing some probably factored(as it should have), but vs UTG+1 with 20% of his stack raised in is not the standard variety spot for a move raise.

[ricochet420]

[ QUOTE ]
Ty for your responses. FWIW, I said fold, and put %'s about 40/10/50, (yeah, i know that wasn't an option. But i been doing alot of thinking about it, and it's MY post, dammit.)

Also FWIW, as many of you may have been able to tell, the flop was seen. My friend reraised allin, and was insta-called by KK, and lost.

My take is similar to most. JJ just too vulnerable here, and from UTG+1, it seems to me that athe raise to 8500 is all too callable. Only about 2/3rd pot raise. If that's me on the button, I know that UTG+1 HAS to be a strong raise, and put him anywhere from TT-AA and AQ-AKs, almost all hands that can stand a reraise under normal circumstances. I personally think the raise size speaks volumes. He WANTED a call. So I fold, not wanting to have a likely 45% minimum chance to bust out, with a just as likely 4-1 against. THe fact that I said he had been pushing some probably factored(as it should have), but vs UTG+1 with 20% of his stack raised in is not the standard variety spot for a move raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted call then push, I guess that's why I suck.

[serling]

Am I too aggressive or does anyone else push preflop instead of open raise 3x? I don't want to see the flop, do I? And I'm barely average with ante/blinds coming up?

serling

[Che]

Pushing pretty much guarantees that you will only be called by AA-QQ/AK unless someone at the table has such a huge stack that they are not concerned about losing 19K or such a small stack that they have to call all-in with any decent hand.

If that range is correct, pushing may not be all that bad.

If you win the blinds 80% of the time (this is where I may be making an error) and face AA-QQ/AK the rest of the time (according to PokerStove, JJ is 36.2% against AA-QQ/AK), your EV is:

.8 (22600) + .2 (.36*41000) = 21032

22600=current stack + blinds and antes
41000=current stack + caller + blinds and antes - small reduction since caller will sometimes be in one of the blinds

This is better than 19K by more than 10% so pushing is a +EV line if my estimates are reasonable and I haven't goofed up the calculations.

Note: If players will fold AK to your push, your EV drops rapidly. While the EV of just winning the blinds 80% of the time basically gives you a freeroll when called, your profit will still be minimal if you aren't getting calls from AK. At a looser table where TT calls, your EV jumps to 43%. Add AQs as well and you're up to 44%.

Anyway, given the hero's current stack to blinds/antes ratio, pushing is probably better than raise/fold.

Later,
Che

Edit: I have never played live, but I guess that this would be a prime opportunity for throwing a reverse tell. You want to look weak when you push so that TT-88, AQo and whatnot will call. You get a big EV boost when they do. Of course, a lot of people get really nervous playing JJ strong so looking weak probably wouldn't be all that hard. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[MLG]

might not be as good as limp reraise though.

[zaxx19]

Im way too tight to move in here in a situation were im basically praying to be a 55% and could quite probably be a 23% winner. But then again i dont win alot of tourneys...make alot of final tables, cash alot , but dont win so if your going for the gusto and dont feel like not cashing or making a higher cash is important to you financially move in and gamble bc your gonna need to accrue some chips too make a serious run at the final table.

[Toro]

I played in this event last year. The big stack, Corkins who was the eventual winner was bullying a lot preflop. I had a similar situation except my hand was slightly better, QQ. We got it all in preflop and you know what he had? 48s. So I don't know how you can fold if he has as you say "been bullying".

Btw, I lost the race with QQ vs 48s. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, I lost the race with QQ vs 48s.


[/ QUOTE ]

ahhh, the classic holdem matchup, a pair vs. two undercards.....oh, wait...

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I played in this event last year. The big stack, Corkins who was the eventual winner was bullying a lot preflop. I had a similar situation except my hand was slightly better, QQ. We got it all in preflop and you know what he had? 48s. So I don't know how you can fold if he has as you say "been bullying".

Btw, I lost the race with QQ vs 48s. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You lost this "race"? WHat happened, did Zola Budd trip you?

[theBruiser500]

You raised UTG and he reraises. His reraise is small (IMO lowers chances he has overcards). Interseting situation, I'd fold.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Given his big stack, he can bully with a wide variety of hands here, specially small pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Competent bullies understand the small range of hands you can have if you are a tight player raising utg+1.