Money Line

[Odogg]

Is the risk reward of the money line worth it? I am sure Philly can win tonight but the to win some you have to bet a ton. Any thoughts on tonights game?

[MicroBob]

I typically like the ML mostly for underdog bets.


For a favorite I think it's kind of iffy.
Philly is -300 on the ML and I just don't think a bet here has a lot of value. They have to win more than 75% on this matchup for this to be break-even.

I think it's close....PHI probably wins this matchup 75-80% of the time imo.

I got PHI at -6.5 (instead of -7 which I see now) and I'm more comfortable with that.

[WackityWhiz]

Well, it is a monday night game and philly should win... but if you are just going to bet the money line, my advice would be to parlay it with other things. Maybe hold off on betting this game and then look all the lines for next week before sunday. Make a 3-4 team parlay on teams that you think are going to win, just using the money line. Or you could try doing teasers. I don't think it's profitable to just bet one game on the money line that is in favor of one team so much.

If you need to bet tonight, you might as well do a teaser with Philly coming down to a pickem and take a shot at the total. Good luck

[PennDenn]

For my $.02, I would not touch this game. Philly lost to Pit., If Balt was at full strenght they would have beat Philly, and they just made it by Clev.
Dallas at home after thier coach told America how much they sucked!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Becarful.

[Odogg]

Nothing wrong with honesty. Dallas is horrible. Philly is where my money is going. How is another story.

[CCx]

Moneylines are only good for the + side...Michigan State this past weekend for example (CHA-CHING, WOOOHOO!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif) including the favorite on the moneyline in a larger parlay, although it gives you a few extra bucks is just adding in another game that may lose. Now if you really want to spice up your parlays, throw in a moneyline dog or two!

P.S. Philly wins by 341 tonight.

[Big Al]

MB:

I am with you, I like ML bets mainly on dogs. I have talked about this game in a previous thread so I wont re-hash it here (my advice is to stay away from this game). Actually, if someone wants to make a ML bet on tonights game, then you have to go with Dallas. Philly will either blow the Cowboys out or the Cowboys will win straight up, I dont see a close Philly win in this one.--Big Al--

[sublime]

its pretty simple, what "line" offers the most value. this chart should help, its pretty accurate:

Favorite
Pointspread Corresponding
NFL Moneyline Corresponding
NCAA Moneyline
-2 -130/+110 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135 -155/+135
-3.5 -175/+155 -175/+155
-4 -200/+170 -185/+165
-4.5 -220/+180 -200/+170
-5/-5.5 -240/+190 -220/+180
-6 -270/+210 -240/+190
-6.5 -300/+220 -270/+210
-7 -330/+250 -300/+220
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280 -330/+250
-9/-9.5 -400/+300 -360/+280
-10 -450/+325 -400/+300


sorry i just copied and pasted from my file, but im sure you can decipher it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ed Miller]

Ok, we've reached the critical mass of misinformation in this thread such that I feel compelled to step in.

There is nothing inherently risky or "unprofitable" about betting the ML favorite... even a big ML favorite like -400 or more. If you can find a team that will win 90% of the time, and you can bet it at -700, that bet is most definitely PROFITABLE in every sense... and furthermore, a bet on the dog at +500 or whatever is most definitely UNPROFITABLE.

Betting a big money line favorite is no different than hoping your opponent will call you with a weak draw in a small pot. For instance, if your opponent has a gutshot on the turn (four outs), and you bet $20 into a $120 pot, you are hoping that he calls. He is getting 7-to-1, but he is 10.5-to-1 to hit his hand. If he does call, you are doing the equivalent of betting the favorite at -700... you are betting $140 (the size of the pot) against $20 (the size of his call) that he'll win.

There is absolutely NOTHING about parlaying several ML favorites together that makes it an inherently "better" or "more profitable" play. In fact, if you find a particularly soft ML favorite line, you can turn it into a loser by parlaying it with too many games on tough lines.

So if you happen to see Eagles -300, or whatever, and you think the Eagles will win more often than 75% of the time, then you have a good bet... and you should probably make that bet unparlayed with any other game.

The reason you guys perceive these bets to be "not worth it" or "too risky" is that you inherently appreciate how close NFL teams are in strength. You understand that if the Eagles played the Cowboys in Dallas repeatedly on Monday night, that Dallas would win a decent share of the games... perhaps 25% or more. THAT is what makes betting the Eagles at -300 a bad bet, not laying the chalk itself.

Where you delude yourselves a little bit is that you underestimate the expense of giving points. You say, "Wow, -300... I don't think the Eagles will win 75% of the time... but look, I can bet them at -6.5, and I have to win only 52.5% of the time. That looks much better." Well, the fact is that about 23% of the time (number from a table on p. 234 of Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong) the winning team (likely to be the Eagles) will win by 6 points or fewer... and your 72% winning Eagles team looks more like a 50% winner on the -6.5 line.

Put it this way... say you saw tomorrow a line on a college football game next week.... Kentucky at Auburn. Kentucky is +400 and Auburn is -500. Which side would you bet?

Hopefully you jumped all over the free scratch that is Auburn -500. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
Michigan State this past weekend for example (CHA-CHING, WOOOHOO!! )

[/ QUOTE ]

im curious what the ML was for this.

[MicroBob]

I know Wisc was -7.5.....so I'm guessing the ML for MSU was around +300 or so??

[MicroBob]

Thx for the input Ed.
Does this mean I can get you to respond more quickly to a specific thread by just posting a bunch of nonsense crap??
Oh wait....that's what I already do anyway.


I KNOW that the ML is usually theoretically equivilent to the value that one gets on the spread.
But I'm still leery of laying that much for a favorite...especially in the NFL where I feel very few teams are 75% or better to win on the road.

But I don't have a problem giving 6.5 points for some reason if the matchup justifies it.

I guess I need to be more game-specific in my selections of spread or ML.

In this situation I'm happy with my selection because I thought that a PHI win was more likely to be of the blow-out variety.

But I'm glad you pointed out the frequency with which teams win by 6 points or fewer and how that really doesn't give the bettor as much value as he thinks he =is getting (as opposed to the ML).

I am an admitted square at this stuff (with occasional 'sharp' tendencies but not often enough) and need to get Wong's Sharp Sports Betting book to learn all of this stuff.

Thanks again for the input and corrections.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I know Wisc was -7.5.....so I'm guessing the ML for MSU was around +300 or so??

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet it early in the week (wednesday) at +280 when the line was still here and there between 7 and 7.5....

[sublime]

Spread NFL CFB
-2 -130/+110 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135 -155/+135
-3.5 -175/+155 -175/+155
-4 -200/+170 -185/+165
-4.5 -220/+180 -200/+170
-5/-5.5 -240/+190 -220/+180
-6 -270/+210 -240/+190
-6.5 -300/+220 -270/+210
-7 -330/+250 -300/+220
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280 -330/+250
-9/-9.5 -400/+300 -360/+280
-10 -450/+325 -400/+300


again this is pretty accurate and should help

[Odogg]

I appreciate the replys. I did take Philly on the ML and won. Wish I would have just settled for the 7.5 to cut down the risk portion. However if anyone watched Dallas against Cincy you would understand why I thought they would lose.

Good luck.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Wish I would have just settled for the 7.5 to cut down the risk portion

[/ QUOTE ]

That would have been horrible. We both know now that PHI would have covered. But, to take a line when it has moved not in your favor across a key number will be disastrous to your bankroll.