A J Carisse
11-15-2004, 03:03 PM
I'm an addict. There I've said it. Wht I'm addicted to isn't drugs though, but rather short term expected value.
This is fine in cash play, and it's served me quite well in fact. At least in terms of the probable hands I'm up against, I have the best of it pretty much all the time.
In terms of tournaments though, this has been an addiction that I've had some trouble breaking. It's not that I don't understand the different strategy needed - heck I could probably write a book on it. It seems that often I just can't help myself. The outcome is that I far too often enter into hands where I have the advantage but it's not significant enough to overcome the risk involved.
I'm getting better at this but the main problem is that I'm a naturally aggressive person and the testosterone takes over in too many situations /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Like yesterday. I'm sitting with JJ on the button and someone puts in for a small raise. Some callers, and I go over the top all in. I figure to have the best hand now - the raise wasn't indicative of AA, KK, or QQ, so I go to capture the pot and I figure the worst I could be up against is AK or AQ if I'm called. So, with the good chance I'll win right now, plus being the favorite if I'm called, I do it.
The problem is that I'm not taking enough time to think these things through. If I think about it enough I'll have second thoughts. What gets me into trouble is the relatively mindless clicking I do in these situations. The hand is quicker than the brain.
Now if I had aces, kings, or queens this move is going to make more sense. With aces actually a smaller raise would be preferable, because I just don't want the pot with this.
As it turned out, the opponent indeed had AQ, which if called was what I figured I was up against. And of course a Q came up, knocking me out of the tourney.
There are certainly times you want to make this move, but it's all relative to your situation, which is what defines tournaments. I had a good sized stack and there was no need to get involved in this hand. In other words, it wasn't worth the risk.
This sort of thing happens to me way too much. My brain knows the correct move but my stupid fingers get me in trouble. Sometimes it helps to write this stuff down so this is why I'm posting this.
In tournaments, short term expected value is often never enough. This is pretty much common knowledge, although it helps to think of this in a structured way. First, we're going to assume that you have a positive expected value in playing the tournament. A certain positive ROI. More specifically for our purposes, an average finish in the money. For simplicity, let's say it's 3rd in 9 or 10 seat SNG's.
So here's how this works. We'll define our game as being (a) normal mode, or (b) more aggressive mode. In normal mode, we're looking for significant advantages, and playing fairly prudently. In more aggressive mode, we're having to push our edges because the risk involved by not doing so and remaining in normal mode is higher than the risk involved in playing the hand more aggressively.
So, getting back to our example where we average 3rd place (which we'll call our general expected value), if my situation is such that this probably will not be the case unless I change gears, then I need to do so. And this is a matter of degree as well. The trick of course is to pick out the point where it's optimal to do so, and to the right degree, based on your expected outcome in not doing so.
At least as important, and perhaps even more so, is NOT changing gears when you don't have to. For example, say things are going well. I've accumulated some chips and let's say that there's a 65% chance to finish in the money. I'm playing a hand which gives me a 55% chance of winning. If I lose I am out. Obviously I should not take such a risk, because the expected value of the hand, while positive, is less than the expected value in general in not playing the hand.
This is a pretty complex calculus, but can be accomplished pretty simply by just asking yourself "is it worth the risk?" Doing so has saved me plenty of times. If I could only do it every freakin time, my life would be much better /images/graemlins/smile.gif
There, I feel better now /images/graemlins/smile.gif
A.J.
This is fine in cash play, and it's served me quite well in fact. At least in terms of the probable hands I'm up against, I have the best of it pretty much all the time.
In terms of tournaments though, this has been an addiction that I've had some trouble breaking. It's not that I don't understand the different strategy needed - heck I could probably write a book on it. It seems that often I just can't help myself. The outcome is that I far too often enter into hands where I have the advantage but it's not significant enough to overcome the risk involved.
I'm getting better at this but the main problem is that I'm a naturally aggressive person and the testosterone takes over in too many situations /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Like yesterday. I'm sitting with JJ on the button and someone puts in for a small raise. Some callers, and I go over the top all in. I figure to have the best hand now - the raise wasn't indicative of AA, KK, or QQ, so I go to capture the pot and I figure the worst I could be up against is AK or AQ if I'm called. So, with the good chance I'll win right now, plus being the favorite if I'm called, I do it.
The problem is that I'm not taking enough time to think these things through. If I think about it enough I'll have second thoughts. What gets me into trouble is the relatively mindless clicking I do in these situations. The hand is quicker than the brain.
Now if I had aces, kings, or queens this move is going to make more sense. With aces actually a smaller raise would be preferable, because I just don't want the pot with this.
As it turned out, the opponent indeed had AQ, which if called was what I figured I was up against. And of course a Q came up, knocking me out of the tourney.
There are certainly times you want to make this move, but it's all relative to your situation, which is what defines tournaments. I had a good sized stack and there was no need to get involved in this hand. In other words, it wasn't worth the risk.
This sort of thing happens to me way too much. My brain knows the correct move but my stupid fingers get me in trouble. Sometimes it helps to write this stuff down so this is why I'm posting this.
In tournaments, short term expected value is often never enough. This is pretty much common knowledge, although it helps to think of this in a structured way. First, we're going to assume that you have a positive expected value in playing the tournament. A certain positive ROI. More specifically for our purposes, an average finish in the money. For simplicity, let's say it's 3rd in 9 or 10 seat SNG's.
So here's how this works. We'll define our game as being (a) normal mode, or (b) more aggressive mode. In normal mode, we're looking for significant advantages, and playing fairly prudently. In more aggressive mode, we're having to push our edges because the risk involved by not doing so and remaining in normal mode is higher than the risk involved in playing the hand more aggressively.
So, getting back to our example where we average 3rd place (which we'll call our general expected value), if my situation is such that this probably will not be the case unless I change gears, then I need to do so. And this is a matter of degree as well. The trick of course is to pick out the point where it's optimal to do so, and to the right degree, based on your expected outcome in not doing so.
At least as important, and perhaps even more so, is NOT changing gears when you don't have to. For example, say things are going well. I've accumulated some chips and let's say that there's a 65% chance to finish in the money. I'm playing a hand which gives me a 55% chance of winning. If I lose I am out. Obviously I should not take such a risk, because the expected value of the hand, while positive, is less than the expected value in general in not playing the hand.
This is a pretty complex calculus, but can be accomplished pretty simply by just asking yourself "is it worth the risk?" Doing so has saved me plenty of times. If I could only do it every freakin time, my life would be much better /images/graemlins/smile.gif
There, I feel better now /images/graemlins/smile.gif
A.J.