what is the best BB/100 you can expect

[kirisim]

For all PokerTracker users - What is the best BB/100 you can expect over a significant period of time, i.e. 10,000 hands?

Right now I am running very hot after 1,500 hands, but I suspect I've just been really lucky, and there is no way I can sustain it.

[ode]

10,000 is not significant.

Also, it depends. Fixed, NL, full-table, shorthanded, heads-up?


/ode

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
For all PokerTracker users - What is the best BB/100 you can expect over a significant period of time, i.e. 10,000 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're missing a zero there. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Depends on the game. For limit holdem, 3BB/100 is generally a good goal.

[kirisim]

So if I am running at 8 BB/100 after 1,500 hands in 6-handed limit hold 'em, then I am just getting insanely lucky lately? And I should expect the inevitable losing streak or breakeven period?

[ode]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I am running at 8 BB/100 after 1,500 hands in 6-handed limit hold 'em, then I am just getting insanely lucky lately? And I should expect the inevitable losing streak or breakeven period?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

I've run over 8BB/100 for over 10k hands in full-ring.
I've also broke even for 10k hands in full-ring.

I think somewhere around 100k hands you can have some
kind of estimation of your long-term winrate.


/ode

[illunious]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I am running at 8 BB/100 after 1,500 hands in 6-handed limit hold 'em, then I am just getting insanely lucky lately?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what they were trying to say is 1,500 hands isn't enough to say. You could be getting lucky, you could be getting unlucky, you could be running averagely.

That said, 8BB/100 is probably too high to maintain.

[MicroBob]

Yes...you're running well....and it's over an EXTREMELY short period.

I've won 13BB/100 in a 1500 hand stretch before.

1500 hands is a typical total for a single-day of multi-tabling for many players btw.


10k is not uncommon for 7-10 days for some players. This is not a significant amount of hands (not even close).


I've had great streaks of 10k hands (7BB/100) and lousy streaks of 10k hands (-3BB/100).

After 100k hands, if I'm somewhere around 2BB/100 then I'm pretty content. If you're at 3BB/100 after 100k hands then you are almost definitely doing something right.


I recently had a couple of stretches where I would log-on, play 200 hands or so, and be up 50BB or more.
Now that was fun.....but at no point did I entertain any notion that I was going to beat the limit-clowns for 25BB/100.


Anyway.....make sure you understand that 1500 hands is a tiny blip and 10k hands is a pretty small sample too.
This is really important and there are a lot of players out there who just don't get this.

[kirisim]

Thanks for the responses. Yes, I realize that I've just been running extremely hot.

It is nice, but it is a little off-putting that I need to expect a bad streak. In fact, it sort of makes me want to pull out all my winnings and play a different game a while. I know that is a gambling, "take-the-money-and-run" mentality, but it is hard to resist that sort of thinking.

I usually play 1 or 2 tables of 6-max 5/10 limit for only 2-3 hours a day, so it took me a week to get to 1,500 hands. It will be a while before I get to 10,000. I might not even have the patience to make it that far.

[JinX11]

Buckle up...as is often said around here:

"Variance be thy friend."

The wheels *will* come the wagon occasionally, I can promise you. Just be sure that you are playing at a limit that your bankroll supports (300 BB or more). This will help allow you to mentally separate short-term performance from long-term goals when you run bad.

Best of luck to you.