River Raise or go for an Overcall?

[MAxx]

This is my first hand at a table of unknowns, Party 5/10 6max. Therefore no reads this time.

I'm in BB with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Preflop: MP open limps, CO raises, SB Calls, I Call, MP calls

Flop(8sb): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, I check, MP checks, CO Bets, SB Calls, I Call, MP Calls.

Turn(6bb): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (7 /images/graemlins/club.gif)
SB checks, I check, MP checks, CO bets, SB raises, I call 2 cold, MP folds, CO calls.

River(12bb): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif (6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif)
SB bets, I call, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15bb

I was in that position on river, where I thought for a milli-second: Should I raise or go for overcall? This time I quickly decided to go for overcall, but I had some thoughts that I should be raising here. I could say why, but do you have any golden rules that you follow in this spot?

[boncher]

I like the overcall. It saves bets when you're beat and picks up the same bet like it did here. Of course you ahve to expect your opponent to call a decnet amount here.

[Alobar]

I fold the turn here facing 2 cold. You've got the double gutter, but it isn't to the nuts, and you've got 2 outs tainted by the possible flush.

I go for the overcall on the river as well.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the turn here facing 2 cold. You've got the double gutter, but it isn't to the nuts, and you've got 2 outs tainted by the possible flush.

I go for the overcall on the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your logic on the turn, but I disagree:

While it is certainly possible that SB could have a better made straight or better straight draw, I do not think it is very likely. He could have a made 56 or some higher straight draw, but I think it would be some what unlikely. The flush is back door, so again while it is possible that someone is now on a flush draw, it is not quite as likely as a flopped 2 suited flush draw. I thought about a range of hands, etc and came up with what I am basically trying to say that: I have the odds to call 2 cold on the turn and think I should contine on my draw in this big pot without any significant discounting of my outs.

I thought that the first 3 streets were properly played, but I definitely am interested in your views or anyone else's. I would like some more opinions on that. Other than that, I was more interested in the river decision and any thoughts on why to go for the overcall vs why to raise.

I went for the overcall because (while I was very confident that my hand was good) I felt that it minimized the damage if some actually pulled off a better straight and I felt in all likelyhood I would probably win the same amount if I raised.

However, it is hard to judge: I think that I should have very little to fear here on the river, and by raising I could have potentially gained several more BB's if SB really liked his hand and especially if CO came along for the ride. Probably more likely that after I raised, CO would fold, and then SB would just call. But you really don't know. CO could have something like an over pair and doesn't want to let go and/ or sb could get agro with 2 pair or a set. Anyone care to share their SOP?

[Scotch78]

The turn call is thin, but okay. On the river I definitely raise. Given the pre-flop action, I'd be extremely surprised if one of the villains has 95(s). You have every reason to believe your straight is good. As to whether raising will make more money than smooth-calling . . . raising definitely will. I doubt the SB will be able to let go of his hand, so you'll get that second bet from him. If the CO cold-calls or SB 3-bets, you make more by raising. The only time I see you making more by calling is if you're splitting the pot with the SB and the CO will call one and only one river bet.

Scott

[Rounder041]

I deffinetly agree with raising the river, like he said, overpair could easily be there, and call two , as well as the fact that 95 is highly unlikely to be out there. If you raise, it opens it up for more raising and for surely the SB calls, which garuntees you to make what you do if you cold call and you get that cold caller behind. Raising seems to have more potential for profit.