check raised on river: call or fold?

[exist]

5-10 6-max party hand.

exist is dealt Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

CO has a V$IP of 64% and a PFR of 13%

UTG CALLS, MP1 folds, CO CALLS, exist (button) CAlls, SB CALLS, BB checks.

flop: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

everyone checks to CO who BETS. exist RAISES. SB folds. BB CALLS. everyone folds to CO who CALLS.

turn: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

all check to exist who BETS. BB folds. CO CALLS.

river: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

CO checks. exist BETS. CO RAISES. exist ???

it seems like almost everytime i payoff here i am beaten but i tend to call anyways. is he really trying a pure check raise bluff here? is this just money down the drain against a player who is not particularly aggressive? what do you guys think?

[Mr. Amanti]

Most likely you are beat in this situtation. the straight draw could have got there with the king, a missed king high flush draw is also now beating you

but there are now appoximetly 10 big bets in the pot, so for your call to his river check raise to be proitable you only need to catch him bluffing 10% of the time

but still looking at the nature of the hand, if your opponant is holding a reasonable hand he just out drew you on the river

[MAxx]

my thoughts on river:

I would be choosing between bet/folding to a raise, or checking w/ the intension of calling.

To me it is not a crime to call his raise on the river, b/c it is a big pot... and it would be a shame if you got bluffed off your hand. He could be be taking a shot at you with a busted flush draw, but I do not think your read really lends us to this conclusion as being real likely (specifically- real likely meaning w/n that 10% range).

smaller pot, I would lean towards a bet/fold to a raise. here, i would lean towards a check/call.

[Peter_rus]

I call here usually. Even if it's -ev move - it's very slightly -ev move. It's more important to prevent any moves on you on river cause they can cost you much. I would pay a raise.

[DrGutshot]

I agree with peter - even though you may lose a little EV here at least it shows you won't be run over.

-DrG

[ChessMan]

I'm a 1/2 and 2/4 player.

10:1 seems worth the call. If you do not call here, next time you are in a similar situation you'll be tempted to just check/call; costing you some profit.

I know at my level it's better to just bet on the river rather than try a check/call approach. At 5/10 it might be different.

Like someone said, you are probably beaten, and it may be that you are beaten more than 90% of the time making the call slightly -EV. However, if you consider the intagibles of calling, it is better to call:

* you get to see exactly what his cards are; so you know what type of draw he was on, and what he limped in with preflop.

* you avoid wondering if maybe you were just bluffed off a hand.

* you avoid people starting to take the occasional shot at you. If you always fold this situation, how will you ever know you are not being bluffed?

These intangibles make you a more informed, confident player.

I say calling is so close to being =EV that when you consider the points above, it's right to call.

[Scotch78]

Everyone else seems to be concentrating on whether to call the check-raise, so I'll look at your river bet: I don't make it. The CO's flop cold-call makes me think he's on the draw or else has you beaten already. If he's on the flush draw or a gutshot, he won't call a river bet. If he had an open-ender, then he has the straight now. While 64% VP$IP is loose enough that he might have called the flop with a made hand that your jacks beat, that's the only hand I see him calling the river with that pays you off. Since a loose player won't fold any hands that beat you, he needs to have a lower pair 55% of the time for your river bet to be +EV. I check behind because I don't think that will happen.

Scott

[exist]

thanks for the replies guys. like i said before, i usually call here and usually lose (maybe too often for the call to be +EV). this time i made myself fold. however, as long as i don't think it to be too -EV i will be paying off here since the reasons some of you gave have significant merit.

since i only knew the 64% V$IP and the 13% PFR of this player and not much else, important post flop play info was lacking (the penalty of 4 tabling i guess). it might seem that these particular stats make it likely he is just a loose maybe averagely aggressive player. but i notice that people with very high V$IP's often play very wierdly and illogically. since i don't have specific post flop play information on this player, this is another factor in favor of a call.

[ChessMan]

I like your analysis on this one. You're probably right. At 1/2 2/4 I don't think I can give my opponents this much credit, but when my BR is big enough I'm moving up. When should I start considering making more refined plays such as check/calling rather than bet/calling on the river? 3/6, 5/10?

[Scotch78]

I play that way at 1/2.

Scott

[Nate tha' Great]

I probably pay off too much, but I think I would fold in this case.