Four of a kind loss... what's the odds?

[subigo]

I am looking for some odds on this hand of mine. For the second time in a month I have had 4 of a kind lose. The first time was to a straight flush and then this morning to a royal flush (second one I have seen on stars in a week - not mine.)

This hand cost me $100 even, not big money to most of you, but enough for me.

I was at the .50/1 NL table on stars and get JJ for my first hand. I raise to $3 and get one caller. The flop comes: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif, J /images/graemlins/club.gif, 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif, - bingo... 4 of a kind on the flop. I am just dreaming of how much I will take from this guy. I bet $10 and he calls. Best I put him on a flush draw.

So the turn comes A /images/graemlins/club.gif and I bet $30 and he calls. He obviously has the flush... this makes me happy. River comes 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif I bet $25 and he puts me all in... I call.

He turns over a royal flush. This was the second time this happened to me in one month. What are the freaking odds?

*edit* Sorry, I meant to post this in the probabilty forum.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop comes: J , J , 10 , - bingo... 4 of a kind on the flop. I am just dreaming of how much I will take from this guy. I bet $10 and he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

what the [censored] are you doing?

[subigo]

I know.

Normally I would have slow played the hell out of it. But I had a note on this guy calling me with a King high on the river when I had two pair. He also had $400+ at the $100 max buy in table, so I knew he would call. He calls everything. Had it been someone I had not played before, I would have checked.

[fearme]

just a sick beat thats all

[rdu $teve]

[ QUOTE ]
what the [censored] are you doing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Some times its best to represent a smaller hand, as if you are afraid of the straight/flush draws. This would make your opponent more confident in his straight/flush, and he would pay you off. It just hurts when he hits the big one against your quads.

I assume this was not a jackpot table, ouch.

[MEbenhoe]

This is a handy little program:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=612662
pokenum -h jd js - kc qc -- jh jc tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 903 91.21 87 8.79 0 0.00 0.912
Kc Qc 87 8.79 903 91.21 0 0.00 0.088

Tough break, but there are a lot worse beats out there than this. Like this one that happened to me recently:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=612664
pokenum -h ac 9c - tc ts -- kc 8c 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kc 8c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 9c 962 97.17 28 2.83 0 0.00 0.972
Ts Tc 28 2.83 962 97.17 0 0.00 0.028

He caught runner runner Tens to beat my flopped nut flush with quads.

[Makata]

Flop flush versus tens is obviously a beat, but depending on the betting he might have thought his Tc would be good enough to win the flush. And he's unlikely to fold if he isn't all in by the turn.

I recently had a hand with the same overall odds (person had to run a boat / quad) but got it in on the flop. I don't claim to be the best player, and maybe it was my own fault for limping 56 in the first place early in a 20+2 SNG, but I did, and no one raises. Flop of 347 rainbow and I'm seeing dollar bills. Overbet the pot a bit, guy in late position (who had been recently been calling some attrocious hands and winning them, with most of the table commenting as such) shoves back at me. Although I forget the specifics as it's been a while, there was well < 250 chips (start 1k 10 way) in the pot and he shoved over 800 IIRC (put me all in). I comment, "thanks for raising into the nuts" and call. Cards are flipped, I see 78o.

Ran the 7, 7 quad. I was laughing too hard to be mad.