A nice early AK hand

[zephyr]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

Hero (t790)
CO (t800)
Button (t865)
SB (t785)
BB (t855)
UTG (t785)
UTG+1 (t750)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t785)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises to t40</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t110.

Flop: (t340) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets t100</font>, Hero ?

Results to follow

[Benholio]

I would fold. Despite the strength you showed pre-flop, he is still coming out firing at this flop. Screams of medium pair to me. Making any kind of move here would put too much of your stack at risk without a real hand.

[pshreck]

I have a general rule to always fold AK when I miss AND it is bet in front of me. Heads up Ill almost always bluff at it when I miss, but if they guy bets in front of me (assuming not a 15 chip min bet or something like that) the pot is his.

On this particular hand.... it feels like he hit trips (I think if he just had a medium pair he would raise more... but players are bad so it could be a hand like 66). I think there is very little chance that you are ahead, and a player with an overpair at this level is simply not capable of laying it (even if you really put on a good show representing JJ or QQ).

Remember, the great asset of AK in position is that you get to see what your opponent does first. He shows strength, you have nothing, avoid losing any more chips on this hand.

[zephyr]

A set is possible but unlikely. I don't see why hands like AQ, AJ, AK, or KQs are out of the picture. He raises less than 1/3 of the pot on the flop, I think its possible that he's taking a stab at it with nothing. Thoughts?

If the flop were 236, then this would be an easy fold for me. But, because I have the extra 4 outs (5's) against a medium pair I think it becomes closer to a push. I'm only around a 3:2 dog against a pair of 77-QQ.

So I think that this hand comes down to FE. I agree that he's not going to fold any over pair, but how often does my opponent hold a hand like AQ, AJ, KQ? Enough to make a push a good move? Or is this just another case of playing it safe early and folding.

The reason I'm posting this is I've been trying to find places to get a little extra edge early on. Is this one of them?

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[tallstack]

[ QUOTE ]
A set is possible but unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. My first thought was that your opponent has a medium overpair here, and is looking to see if it is any good. Your could also be against a weaker ace like you have said.

You are getting 4.4:1 to draw for what I would say are likely 10 clean outs. The worst play IMO, would be to fold, especially early in the game and facing a bet that will not cripple you. The big question in my mind is whether an all-in reraise will win you the pot, or find you needing to hit your outs. You can't have much of a read yet, but your opponent called your double the pot raise PF so I would not imagine him folding with any overpair, and may call you even with a weaker ace (which would be nice). With about 12 or more outs I would push here for sure, but with 10 outs against a likely call of your push it is not an easy choice. I think that pushing is fine, but IMO it is likely to only drop the hands that you have beat already. Personally, I am leaning towards just calling with position against your opponent on the turn. He may even freeze up and check it to you on the turn. If I thought you had more folding equity then I would say push, but he really didn't put you to the test with his bet anyways. This early in the game, I think you can afford to see another card here.

Dave S

[zephyr]

Thank you for your well thought out analysis. After the fact the thought crossed my mind of calling and then playing the turn aggressively. If a A, K or 5 hits then I'm almost certainly ahead, and I have a lot more FE against a middle pair if a 10, J, or Q falls. The only problem with this strategy is if my opponent holds a hand like AJ, or AQ, or KQ and hits a J or Q on the turn, then I could easily be trapped.

I think folding is out of the question. It's either a push on the flop or a call with a plan for the turn.

Any other thoughts?

Results to follow,

Zephyr

[adanthar]

I've been playing weak/tight early on in tourneys so I probably just call.

The big concern is that hitting any piece of your hand is going to shut down the betting. A Q or J probably shuts it down, too, because if I have AQ/AJ on the turn and hit my kicker I'm going all in exactly to shut out the chop. In fact, a thinking opponent is going to put you on AK/AQ the minute you call, so the rest of the hand against a decent player plays itself.

Against a typical $30 SNG player, though, I'm not bluffing a blank turn. Right now I think this is a pot odds call.

[zephyr]

I push, he thinks for a long time and then folds.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
The big concern is that hitting any piece of your hand is going to shut down the betting. A Q or J probably shuts it down, too, because if I have AQ/AJ on the turn and hit my kicker I'm going all in exactly to shut out the chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reasoning exactly, but my conclusion was "push". You are almost certainly up against an overpair or another ace. If he folds, great, if he calls you have outs. If you call and don't hit an out, he bets again and you fold. If you call and do hit an out, it's too obvious.