56s, Gutshot in large pot, raised flop...now bet turn??

[Lmn55d]

OK, I love my flop raise here. But I'm questioning my turn check. The plan was to take a free card, but I picked up an opeender and it looks like this guy is on AK or something. My thinking at the time was "theres no way this guys folding so just take the free card." But now I feel that he might have folded enough for the bet to be profitable (I did have the OESD adding value to it too). What do you guys think??

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (8.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 8.25 BB, won by BB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to BB.</font>

[Nick C]

I think the flop raise has some value, as it improves the chances you'll win by spiking a pair and it may get you a free look at the river, if you want it. On the other hand, everyone besides the Button and the preflop raiser has already folded anyway, and the Button might fold even if you don't raise (he probably doesn't like that flop). Still, it is possible that your raise will get the Button to fold overcards that he wouldn't have otherwise.

I would probably take the free card on the turn. I think BB will definitely continue with an overpair and probably will continue with overcards as well. (And unless he thinks you have trips or better, he should continue with overcards.) One advantage of betting the turn, though, is that it does improve your chances of bluffing BB off his overcards (if that's what he has) on the river if he again misses. If he'll fold an unimproved ace-high on the river, then I think the turn bet is good.

[Lmn55d]

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