Mathematically correct?

[Yeti]

Party $100 6-Max, 4 handed.

I'm in the BB with KQh. Folded to the SB who makes it 8. I just call.

Flop is 863, one heart.

Villian bets $15, I raise to $50. He goes allin $41 more.

I'm obviously not too pleased with how this is working out. Lets say I'm now 100% sure he has 99-JJ.

Should I mathematically call?

[jt1]

no, don't call. 6 outs equal what? 7-1 ...ru going to win $280? i think you should bet $8 preflop, or at least that is where I am at in my game. Why such a high raise on the flop? A smaller raise would have done the trick, and the time to raise, again, is preflop.

[TheTimeIsUp]

You have a 28.28% to win this if you are up against JJ. You have to put in 41 to win a 159 pot, having you to put in %25.78 of the pot, giving you slight +EV. So yes, it is mathmatically correct to call.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say I'm now 100% sure he has 99-JJ.

Should I mathematically call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You're about a 3-1 dog or so, and getting more than that to play. In my mind it would be a huge mistake to fold after raising this much. In this situation, if I was going to raise, I would normally prefer raising allin on the flop rather than the pot size. Our opponent may then fold some marginal hand that they may have gone with if we raised smaller, and it stops some opponents making the mistake of thinking we may not be committed. Certainly much better than raising the full pot and then folding to a small allin.

[Yeknom58]

Preflop call was terrible.

Post flop...go to www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net) and tell me what you think about your call.

[amoeba]

preflop call and flop raise were not good.

don't try to rebluff short stack party players.

[TheTimeIsUp]

This was no doubt a bad play, but at this point, you DO have the pot odds to call.

[Yeti]

Thank you.

It was undoubtably a poor play, my question was simply whether by putting myself in this situation I now had to call.

I remember calling preflop in the hope of disguising my relatively strong hand (normally I would reraise). The flop raise didn't work out, obviously.

As it turned out, I was for some reason certain he had JJ (KK and QQ less likely due to my holding and I didn't think he'd play AA this way).

Turn and river were 99, and my opponent took down the pot, along with a '?' /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Just for the record, I don't think raising on a rag flop after calling a preflop raise is necessarily a bad play per se. It actually tends to work out quite a lot at $100NL - just not in this case.

Thanks again.