10-20

5 handed


I raise in the cut-off with AQo, solid SB three-bets, BB folds.


Flop: A K Q rainbow. Yikes. . .


He bets. I call.


Turn. He bets . . . Do most just call him down here, and bet if checked to on the river? Would anyone raise the flop? What if you are three-bet? Fold, peel one?

If he has Slick your drawing slim...If he has Kings your drawing slim...If he has Aces your drawing almost dead(running queens)If he has Queens your drawing slim...To answer your questions i would never bet unless checked to on river. Just play this hand passive. Call, Call, Call. This is a tough hand and more often then not your paying off a better hand or the same hand. But if he has small pair you are inducing bluffs on everystreet! Tell us what he showed down!


3 2 1

Against most opponents, I think calling down is the best option (maximize your wins when ahead, but minimize your losses when behind). A river bet seems in order when checked to.


If the SB is a real rock who would require a quality hand to reraise preflop from the blinds, you micht raise the flop and fold if he 3-bets or bets the turn. If he just calls your raise and checks the turn, check behind him but call a river bet.


> Would anyone raise the flop? What if you are three-bet? Fold, peel one?


IMO, raising the flop only makes sense if you decided beforehand to laydown when he 3-bets.


cu


Ignatius

. . . he showed AK

The game is 5 handed and you raised from the cutoff. If SB is solid, and you are playing somewhat correctly he knows you will raise many hands here. Furthermore, if SB is a good player, he will 3 bet with most hands he is going to play to get the BB out. There is no reason to think you are beat on the flop unless SB is actually not a very good player and does not raise enough. You need to raise on the flop. He WILL call with worse hands. Again this is based on the assumption that the SB plays well. If he is weak tight it is better to just call.

This is 5-handed after all. He could have 3-bet w/ a ton of hands. AJ, JJ...88, KQ, KJs. You beat a ton of hands he could have. Folding is not an option. Raising is IMO better than calling to add money on what is likely best hand and to narrow what your opponent has.


Mojay

Thanks for the comments, but I'm still not convinced of raising the flop. It's true that he could have a wide variety of hands. Let's say for example, I raise the flop and he has 88, he would probably fold right there rather than bet again on the turn, which he may do if I just call. If he has AJ or ATs, for example, and I don't raise, he may continue to bet, thinking he has the best hand. If he has AA, KK, QQ, or AK, then he will probably check-raise the turn, and if I call it down I lose an extra 1.5 BBs. Would you fold in this situation to seemingly solid player. (I onlt played with him for about 20-30 minutes at the time.) Since he's leading the betting, I don't think I lose much by playing it passively . . .and I won't get worse hands to pay off. What do you think?

I would smooth call the flop. If my opponent bet again on the turn, I'd raise. If a solid player reraises me, I would still NOT fold unless I thought they would only reraise with a set, straight, or top two pair. I don't think such a player would be described as 'solid'. Maybe if I had a very very good read on the player...but I don't think I could bring myself to fold.


Critical Factor: Hand Distribution

Let's assume our opponent is solid and would only 3-bet with the following hands: AA-88, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs, QJs, JTs.


There are only 5 holdings that beat you. AK, AA, KK, QQ, JTs. Since you hold both an Ace and a Queen, it is far less likely your opponent holds a combination with ace or queen. If you assume your opponent would have 3-bet any of these from the Small Blind, here is a breakdown of how many possible combinations exist for each hand type.


AA(1),KK(3),QQ(1),AK(6),JTs(4). AQ(4). AJ(8),ATs(2),JJ(6),TT(6),99(6),88(6),KQ(6), KJs(3), QJs(2).


So, that's 15 bad combos. 4 where it doesn't matter. 45 where you're winning. Collectively, you will be winning a vast majority of the time and need to (a)make yourself $$$ (b)charge the thin drawing hands and (c)get some hands to fold that might hit a miracle card.


So, why raise the turn rather than the flop? To charge the draws sufficiently. You must hurt the opponent's odds. If you raise on the flop, they're still getting 10 to 1 for a call, sufficient for a gutshot straight. A raise on the turn forces your opponent to take 7.5 to 1 odds, insufficient for a 4-outer. Of course, they'll still call w/ AT, KJ, QJ, etc, but now it will be a mistake. And they'll fold with 88 or 99, saving you the pot the 5% of the time when they hit their rank on the river.


What if your solid opponent reraises? Well, you have a bit of a dilemma. It is true that there is a significant chance you are losing. But it's certainly not guaranteed. Wouldn't most opponents reraise with KQ? I would believe a lot would also reraise with AJ or AQ also. But even if they would only raise with KQ, there are 6 combinations where you are winning, 15 combinations where you are losing. And for all holdings except AA, you will have 2 or 4 outs. So, with 9.5 Big Bets in the pot, you have a 30% chance of winning and a further 5-10% chance of drawing out if you are losing. Clearly sufficient odds.


BTW...I'd just call it down if a T or J fell, since you're now going against a completed hand or lesser holding with little hope of improvement.


Obviously, it is impossible to do all this analysis at the table, but the point is just that I believe my instinct is backed by mathematics.


Last but not least...I set several assumptions including the idea that an opponent would not 3-bet with hands such as A9s, A8s, QTs, KJo, KTs, 77-22, etc. Most solid players I know would raise some of the above, which swings our decision further towards raising.


Please let me know if my math or analysis is wrong.


Mojay

wow- well put!


3 2 1

While all the above points are well-taken, I believe Glenn may still be right about raising on the flop. Raising on the flop doesn't mean much, since the bet is cheap, and a solid opponent should not be deterred and should still bet on the turn with virtually the same distribution of hands you analyzed above. So not raising costs you a bet. If the opponent is not solid, then I agree with you about smooth calling.


A solid opponent should not be deterred by a raise on the flop because he's giving up too much if he is.

caling down is possibly the worst, second only to folding