eastbay
11-13-2004, 04:59 AM
http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/14-13-12.tif (http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/14-12-13.tif)
A sobering diagram showing the results of a simulated player who has a .14 .12 .13 breakdown of 1sts, 2nds, 3rds for an ROI of about 20%. Assumed 10% fee.
x-axis is # games. y-axis is # buy-ins. The player starts with 30 buy-ins, 'cause he's an educated, disciplined 2+2'er. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
The colors and contours come from a histogram of counting the number of times the player reached that spot as he progressed through the games. The process was repeated 100,000 times, and the results averaged.
As you can see, a 20% ROI player can expect one heck of a wide range of results over 100, 200, even 300 games.
The "jagginess" comes from the payout structure, so especially early on, there's only so many discrete possibilities you can hit with various combinations of wins and losses. This smooths out a bit over time.
eastbay
A sobering diagram showing the results of a simulated player who has a .14 .12 .13 breakdown of 1sts, 2nds, 3rds for an ROI of about 20%. Assumed 10% fee.
x-axis is # games. y-axis is # buy-ins. The player starts with 30 buy-ins, 'cause he's an educated, disciplined 2+2'er. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
The colors and contours come from a histogram of counting the number of times the player reached that spot as he progressed through the games. The process was repeated 100,000 times, and the results averaged.
As you can see, a 20% ROI player can expect one heck of a wide range of results over 100, 200, even 300 games.
The "jagginess" comes from the payout structure, so especially early on, there's only so many discrete possibilities you can hit with various combinations of wins and losses. This smooths out a bit over time.
eastbay