A7s, good line against someone who likes to bluff?

[Guido]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Guido is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Guido raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Guido bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, Guido calls.

I call to let him do the betting/let him continue his bluff.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Guido checks.

His flop check-raise was obviously a bluff because he would wait until the turn with an ace or bet out on the turn after check-raising the flop. Because it was a bluff it is very likely he will fold to my bet and there aren't any draws so I don't mind giving him a free card. Also by showing weakness he is likely to bluff the river again.

River: (4.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Guido bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Guido 3-bets</font>, BB folds.

Since he doesn't have an ace I have an easy 3-bet.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Thanks,

Guido

[Jeff W]

You played this hand very well. I would have lost some EV because of inappropriate aggression.

Did you have a read on this player to take this line? It takes a special player to check-raise bluff twice here.

[Guido]

No, I had no special read on this guy just that I had seen him bluff on a scary board a few times but it seemed logical to play this way although I've never used this line. That's why I wanted to know what the rest thinks of it and maybe others learn something from it when my line was good.

Thanks,

Guido

[vector]

It worked great, but I don't think I could have brought myself to check the turn after him.

Whenever I do that I seem to be punished by him turning over a rivered full house or flush.

Also isn't it possible he may often have a hand he wants to showdown anyway, in which case you get 2 bets by betting turn and river? The two aces on board make him less likely to believe you have one.

I realise you got two bets anyway, but it doesn't seem you could rely on that outcome very often.

I agree with just calling his flop raise, and waiting till the river to raise if he keeps betting.

[Guido]

Like I said he liked to bluff so he probably has Kxo or something like that. When he check-raises I know he's on a bluff and has nothing or maybe a pair of fours. When I bet the turn he will fold almost all of them. He could lay down a hand but he just liked to bluff on a scary board.

I don't agree that he wants to go to a showdown anyway. He could have J8o here and just fold to my turn bet. When he catches a pair on the river he's also likely to bet and call my raise.

I don't think a flush is very likely and I certainly don't think he has an ace.

Thanks,

Guido

[vector]

When I mentioned rivered fullhouse I meant if he had a small/med pair, not ace. But of course the chances of him having this then catching a 2 out are very small.

I think you are very often (usually) right he will fold to a turn bet, its just a matter of factoring in the fact that some non-zero % time he would have called down, and some non-zero % of time he will suck out with a free rivercard, and some non-zero % of time he will not put anymore money in the pot anyway.

Being totally unable to factor these things even after the fact, let alone in the heat of battle, I would have bet on the turn when checked too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Since the most important information was how often will he bluff again with nothing, and you had the read that he would clearly do this, I am happy to concede you played it right.

Perhaps this was just difficult for me to accept first time around because I play 5/10 and would always assume a reasonable chance of an opponent actually calling down with K high, 4s, or any pair. And you can't expect many of them to bluff for you in that game.

Luckily I'm not planning on hitting 10/20 for a while yet ...

[vector]

For some reason this hand is stuck in my head.

Ok, something just occurred to me: given your line and read, why did you three bet the river? It ruins your whole argument I think.

Here's why: you are convinced he's bluffing. You are also convinced he can lay down a hand, and isn't tied to a showdown. This is the whole reason for your checking the turn.

So the only time he is calling your 3 bet (or capping) is when the river has improved him. But its a 2. The only way that improves him enough is if he had 22 or 35 and is now ahead.

If you think he will now be prepared to showdown his medium pair / 9s / K high / or he had a (worse) ace after all, then these are all excellent reasons to bet the turn aren't they?

[Guido]

Very good point but you have to take into account what his read is on you. When you bet the turn he is likely to believe you have an ace. Now when you check he probably isn't that convinced that you have one. On the turn he might not be so sure whether his pair of fours, nines or pocket pair is good enough. After the weakness you have shown on the turn, a blank 2 might give him the idea that his pair is good enough and he tries a check-raise. He might be curious enough to see what I have. That's why I think a 3-bet is good.

1 Because it's 1 more bet for him to a showdown
2 Because he might think his pair is good

Thanks,

Guido