Back into stocks

It's here. There should be the chance for some real upside in the market. I'm going long with a lot of this money in tech which should bounce hard.


Back to the races!

What happened to the September 21 low?


Didn't meet your schedule?


You were a seller at 1070, 27 points below us.


I am bearish, there is yet little reason to expect stock prices to be higher a year from now.


And if somebody asks "why" I am inclined not to say.


eLROY

"I am bearish, there is yet little reason to expect stock prices to be higher a year from now"


so what why cant he make money on long positions? you are in and out of the market all the time why cant he be?

He could very easily have said "I expect the S&P to break the low before I get new information."


What good is a prediction, if you fail to predict you will get new information, and that the information will cost you 25 points?


A day trade is simply a prediction about how soon you will know to exit.


eLROY

"He could very easily have said "I expect the S&P to break the low before I get new information."


right but aren't you nit picking? nobody would fail to change their mind if they werent presented with new information. thats a given i think.


"?What good is a prediction, if you fail to predict you will get new information, and that the information will cost you 25 points?"


how do you figure it necessarily cost him 25 points? ok it would have been better to be in 25 points ago but who the hell can pick all the inflection points in the market flawlessly? if he is right and the market moves in his direction and he makes money the issue becomes was the risk worth taking. as far as the information that changes his mind how can he predict when he will get it? ok his system may or may not be very good. it may be good enough to make him money though.


"A day trade is simply a prediction about how soon you will know to exit."


sure.


your comment to him was that in a year stocks would be lower not higher is probably irrelevant to him since his indicators seem to be more sensitive than a one year time frame would indicate.

"how do you figure it necessarily cost him 25 points"


Based on prices at the first opportunities to trade after he made each of his two calls.


"his indicators seem to be more sensitive than a one year time frame would indicate"


Also more sensitive than a two-month timeframe would indicate.


"right but aren't you nit picking?"


No. A price and time prediction should be a prediction of the price and time at which you expect to get new information. He never gave the impression that this was anything but a two-month trade, where the passage of time, or reaching the low, would invalidate the trade. He has completely changed the distribution of returns, and the appropriate level of capital to commit to the trade.


"comment to him was that in a year stocks would be lower not higher is probably irrelevant to him"


He said "It's here." That implied something long awaited. People do no long await things which are over in a week, or even in a month or two.


eLROY

"No. A price and time prediction should be a prediction of the price and time at which you expect to get new information."


are your predictions always right? he made a wrong prediction or the scenario didnt quite work out exactly as planned. why are you so hung up on the predicibility of when he gets new information. how can you tell when you will get it? his indicators are telling him something else now.


"He never gave the impression that this was anything but a two-month trade, where the passage of time, or reaching the low, would invalidate the trade."


im not sure thats true about the impression he gave. that was your impression not necessarily anyone elses. his indicators have obviously invalidated the trade. again youre nit picking. anybody is going to invalidate a trade when theyre indicators tell them that they should change.


"He has completely changed the distribution of returns, and the appropriate level of capital to commit to the trade."


how do you figure that one? his indicators tell him to do something else, hes doing it.


"He said "It's here." That implied something long awaited. People do no long await things which are over in a week, or even in a month or two."


it implied something to you not necessarily anyone else.

There is nothing wrong with changing your view... often its better to do so than holding on to losers. But when you do so, you should first take losses on your previous positions. Everyone tends to trumpet their winners and forget the losers but thats not a good way to earn credibility

Well, the best I can say is I changed my mind. The market is vastly oversold at this point. There should be a nice up movement from here on out.


As usualy Elroy you are thoroughly confusing and rambling. I have no idea what your beef is.


I changed my find because of a variety of factors. I've been bearish for almost 1.5 years and yes I have been waiting for this. I doo not anticipate this being a short term "trade" though it may end up beind less than a year long. I don't really like to trade much.


I'm going aggressive on tech. Hooray for tech!