Raising the turn with OESD and flush draw, stinky or clinky-clinky?

[MoreWineII]

UB 3/6, Loose game, aggro varies, no particular reads.

Hero is button with J /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. 4 limpers to hero who calls. SB folds, BB checks.


Flop: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets, hero calls, BB calls, UTG folds, MP calls.


4 players to the turn, 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB now bets, MP calls, CO calls, hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP calls, CO calls, hero calls.

Eh?

[ErrantNight]

clinky clinky.

sorry about the reraise.

[Nick C]

I would most likely raise the turn, thinking I have 3 opponents and probably 15 outs.

When I get three-bet and there are two cold callers, I have to start worrying that better flush draw may be out there. (And I don't want someone else to be holding J9 or KJ either.) But I continue to hope that my flush and straight outs are good and that the 3-bet followed by two cold-calls worked to my advantage.

[ElSapo]

MoreWine... I'm not usually a math guy, but it seems to me that if the turn raise is right then a cap is in order. But it isn't, which is why I don't really like the turn raise.

With 15 outs, you're getting almost exactly the right return on your investment here, 3-1 and 3-1. But seeing as you may get three-bet and lose customers, and sometimes you'll make your hand and lose/chop, I think I'd just call the bet.

ElSapo

[Nick C]

If the 15 outs are good, isn't he getting 2:1 (or 31:15, to be more exact)?

[ElSapo]

Not a math guy. Like I said. Crap.

Ignore the moron please.

[MoreWineII]

Yah, I wasn't all that excited about the 3-bet. The two cold-callers made me happy though.

FWIW, I put BB on a set at that point & crossed my fingers for the 7 of /images/graemlins/spade.gif to hit.

[MoreWineII]

River: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif woot.

BB bets, MP raises, CO folds, hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP calls, hero reluctantly calls.

And I didn't even have to split. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

For the curious, BB had ATo for the flopped two pair, and MP had A7o, yes A7o, for the rivered two pair.

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
For the curious, BB had ATo for the flopped two pair, and MP had A7o, yes A7o, for the rivered two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I had no idea I was drawing dead there.

[Jeff W]

I like the turn raise, but I think you have enough equity to cap the turn with 3 opponents in for 3 bets.

Assuming the Ac and Tc are dead, you have 13 outs out of 46 unseen cards: 2.5:1 odds. You cannot be certain that you are up against dominating or counterfeiting hands often enough to call here instead of capping getting 3:1.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
River: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif woot.

BB bets, MP raises, CO folds, hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP calls, hero reluctantly calls.

And I didn't even have to split. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

For the curious, BB had ATo for the flopped two pair, and MP had A7o, yes A7o, for the rivered two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think these players ever considered what holding you were raising? After you chose not to raise pre-flop on the button!

[TripleH68]

If the AT had raised preflop would you have played this hand from the button?

[MoreWineII]

AT was the BB, so I'd throw in another small bet if he raised, yah.

I wouldn't cold-call with that hand on the button unless there were X number of cold-callers (admittedly, I don't know what X is). /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[MoreWineII]

Doubt it. I made notes, especially on the A7o guy. /images/graemlins/wink.gif