Kind of Hypothetical

[sthief09]

amazingly I have reads, even though I'm using a hand converter. don't ask me how it's possible. it just is. UTG and BB are both reasonable. they have PFR's in the 6-7 range in the ~100 hands I have with them. while I was playing this hand, I asked myself on the turn, "if the board were rainbow, would I fold?" it's goign to cost 2 BB to call down, and the absolute best case scenario is a 3-way chop, even though I don't think BB would cold-cap with AK. in this hand I don't think I could've laid down because it was only 1 BB. if I had no flush draw on the turn, my effective odds would've been around 8.5-1



Party Poker 5/10 (10 handed)
Hero has K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif and is Button

UTG raises, EP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, UTG calls, EP2 calls, Hero calls

Flop(16 2/5 SB): K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, UTG raises, EP2 folds, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls

Turn(12 7/10 BB): 3/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls

River(15 7/10 BB): 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls

[btspider]

assuming you can put UTG on AK with 100%, there is only one combination of AA and two combinations of AK remaining (one combo of AKs perhaps). seems like more than enough overlay. i'd probably call the turn if the 3-flush was out there and I didn't have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif.

could UTG have played Q/images/graemlins/club.gifQx this way (up until your turn decision)?

i know this topic probably warrants a more mathematical breakdown.. I'm being lazy.

[ecooke]

Cool situation.
Since the BB and UTG are "reasonable" that 5 is not much of a concern. So the hands we're talking about are AA, KK, and AK. That said, I 3-bet the Flop and call down if it gets capped. Rainbow or not, the pot is large and you hit your premium holding. Even though you appear to be behind, I would not be certain enough (>95%) to consider folding.

[sthief09]

it reminded me of a hand that CDC posted last week. it's just so mathematically improbable yet logically so "obvious" that it's either AA/KK or AA/AK. it's hard to put people on hands that involve the other 3 aces and 1 of the 2 remaining kings in the deck, but certain actions are just so obvious.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Cool situation.
Since the BB and UTG are "reasonable" that 5 is not much of a concern. So the hands we're talking about are AA, KK, and AK. That said, I 3-bet the Flop and call down if it gets capped. Rainbow or not, the pot is large and you hit your premium holding. Even though you appear to be behind, I would not be certain enough (>95%) to consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

the only reason I would 3-bet the flop would be to make it an easier laydown on the turn. if I get capped, there's no way I could call it down. I'd have no chance of winning. you can't just think "oh I have top pair top kicker, I have to see a showdown." look at the situation. screw the pot size and screw what I had preflop. right now I have a pair of kings. given the board and the action, my hand is far from "premium."

[ecooke]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have no chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
screw the pot size and screw what I had preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to think I have no idea what I'm talking about.
You may be right, but these sentences are neither correct nor constructive.
Tell me then, why did you create this post? Perhaps I can look at the situation from your perspective - without consideration of your holding or the pot size. What would you have me consider?

[Trix]

Why not raise the turn if you are going to call the river anyway, dont think AA will 3bet it and dont think KK is out there as it looks like UTG has a K. I think they may check the river if another club comes, so you win more that way when you improve.

I think the absolute best you can hope for on the river is a split, so probably cry and fold.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd have no chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
screw the pot size and screw what I had preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to think I have no idea what I'm talking about.
You may be right, but these sentences are neither correct nor constructive.
Tell me then, why did you create this post? Perhaps I can look at the situation from your perspective - without consideration of your holding or the pot size. What would you have me consider?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I don't know what gives you that impression
2. they are correct and they are constructive. if I 3-bet the flop and got capped, I would have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of winning the pot. I wrote screw the pot size and screw what I had preflop because you seem to be thinkign too much in terms of the pot size and the fact that I have AK. well I don't have AK anymore. I have a pair of kings
3. I created the post because I want to know if I could've folded the turn without a flush draw. you suggested to 3-bet then call down if capped. that line shows absolutely no thought into the given situation. you're telling me that I have AK and I hit a K so I have a big hand and have to go nuts with it. that's wrong. that's what I don't agree with.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the turn if you are going to call the river anyway, dont think AA will 3bet it and dont think KK is out there as it looks like UTG has a K. I think they may check the river if another club comes, so you win more that way when you improve.

I think the absolute best you can hope for on the river is a split, so probably cry and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


wait, you want me to raise the turn for a free showdown, but fold the river given that I didn't raise? those two ideas contradict each other. I really like the idea of raising the turn though, assuming I would pay off the river. I didn't even consider it. it's a good way to make an extra BB when I make a flush.

[ecooke]

You didn't seriously just tell me that I'm over considering the pot size, right? I see your 5000+ post so I know that you know the size of the pot is right up there with the most important factors of every decision in poker. Let's agree on that.
That said, I didn't tell you go nuts with anything. What I said is that I'm not 95% certain you will lose this hand. If you believe you will make the correct play 19 out of 20 times, fine - you're a better player than I am.

[sthief09]

I meant screw the pot size when looking at your idea to 3-bet the flop. it has no bearing. I have nothing to protect, and a bigger or smaller pot shouldn't make me more apt to raise or not raise the flop. if the rake somehow took away 2/3 of the current pot, I would've just folded right there

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a good way to make an extra BB when I make a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean frush.

[sthief09]

right. crub frush

I flopped a frush at Rounders the other night against two LAGs and after they called the river I announced "FRUSH!"

[MAxx]

i started to do an analysis, and felt like you could go either way on this. feels like splitting hairs. i am rarely in pots with 2 other reasonable opponents and this kind of hand/ betting action anyway.

[sthief09]

I just saw that you've been posting here since last October. I thought you were new for some reason. did you not post for a while?

[sfer]

Pink chip?

[Sarge85]

Is it possible to raise the turn here? Especially since you have the Ace of trump, and the King is exposed. That being the case, it would seem like it'd be unlikely to get re-raised here, unless some one is holding KK. It could get you a free showdown at the river, and if your met with resistance, you still have outs.


Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Sarge85]

uh,...yeah what he said....

Damn I guess I should read the whole thread first.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[sthief09]

5/10

[MAxx]

when i picked my forum name... i went for the first thing that came to mind and sounded really anonymous. damn i am good b/c nobody remembers me.

while i joined in october 2003, i was more of a silent lurker for the first month or 2. i have been regular ever since.

sure i dont make a million posts a day (which i view as positive), but i view myself as a regular. i spend a little more time in the short forum now.

i even played at the table with you and chris daddy cool at party 3/6 last summer after yall had stayed up all night. you even pointed out my home city was mispelled (Ricmond vs Richmond).

ignor my previous post, it was a cop out.