How to stop losing money with top pair hands?

[aces_full]

I have recently started using Poker Tracker and after a little more than 4000 hands, my biggest money loser is hands where I end up with one pair (usually TP/TK or an overpair). This seems like a leak in my game I need to plug.

The problem is I play .10/.25 NL and for the most part the players are awful, so I find it very difficult to know when I'm actually beat or when I'm just up against some moron who is either overplaying a lower pair or TP/weak kicker or is outright bluffing. On one hand, I feel that if every time I folded TP/TK or an overpair when somebody gives me action it would be negative EV, but on the other hand I have been stung enough times that it seems like Poker Tracker is telling me that calling is -EV.

Here are a few scenarios I have encountered:

I have AA and get three callers who I have position on. Flop is 9-rag-rag. I bet the pot on the flop, and get one call. Turn is another rag, I bet the pot again, he calls again. River is another rag, he checks again, I check behind, he shows 99 for a set and I lost 2/3 of my stack on this hand. Is there any way I could have known I was beat here?

I have AK and raise pre-flop. I hit TP/TK. I bet out and get raised behind me. The pot is pretty big already so I decided to push and he insta-calls. Lucky for me he shows ace-rag and my pair of aces is good.

Another AK hand-there is a raise in front of me and I reraise and we are heads up. The flop is K4X and the PF raiser bets. I reraise and he reraises again. I have him covered and I put him all in. He calls and turns up K4 and I am beat.

AK again and I flop top pair. I get all in with a player who shows A-rag for a flopped two pair.

AA with one caller on a T high flop. He leads at the pot and I put him all in. He insta-calls and shows QT soooted.

QQ with two callers. Flop is K-rag-rag. UTG goes all in, I fold , button calls. UTG shows K7 for TP/crap kicker!!!!

JJ one caller-flop is three rags. He checks, I bet pot, he calls. I fire again on the turn and he calls again. It is checked through on the river, and he shows 88 and I take it down.

KK vs two calllers flop comes A-rag-rag. A pleyer in EP makes a weak bet and I push trying to represent something like AK,AQ,or AA. He insta-calls for his entire stack and shows A4 and wins with a pair of aces. Although I was beat here, it does illustrate the difficulty in dealing with players who never even consider that I might have their hand completely dominated.

What confuses me is that from the examples I have given, and I'm sure I have more, that fish will often play the same way with hands that beat me as well as hands I beat, so how do I know when I'm truly behind or when I am ahead?

[jtr]

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What confuses me is that from the examples I have given, and I'm sure I have more, that fish will often play the same way with hands that beat me as well as hands I beat, so how do I know when I'm truly behind or when I am ahead?

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OK. First thing to note is that of course reads are important. I'm sure that in many cases it's not the same people playing these strong and weak hands the same way, but different people that you are not differentiating between (perhaps because you are multi-tabling; fair enough).

But let's assume for convenience that you play against a new bunch of faceless fish every hand and no notes or reads are possible. Yes, it's true that often you can't tell from their action whether or not they have a hand that beats (say) an AA overpair when they move in after your flop bet.

The answer is easy: in this case you would simply use your experience and/or Pokertracker hand histories to get a rough measurement of the times when such an all-in raise indicates real strength and the times when it comes from a crap hand. Then apply straightforward pot odds calculations to figure out whether you can call all-in. If these people are such fish, for example, that they will have junk 50% of the time, you have to call them down. If it's more like 20% of the time then your decision will depend on the size of the pot, depth of stacks, etc.

Just make a decent estimate of the proportion of bluff all-in moves for this game and run with it. Or better, concentrate on reads so that your estimate is opponent and situation specific.

PS: in my experience of Party $50 and $100 NL, I'd say the proportion of all-in moves when the raiser can't beat an overpair AA is low, maybe 10%, but your mileage seems to vary. And I've been away from these tables for a while so maybe I'm out of touch.

[Tilt]

There are a couple of options for changing your play with TPTK and increase your return in 25NL full ring. I've had the same problem there before.

First option: Tighten up with TPTK, wait until it improves. In a full fishy ring TPTK doesn't stand up all that well. There is a good reason for this - the implied odds that the fish give when you hit a big hand makes drawing more profitable. Since you are having trouble with reads, etc., at the river and making your early round bets pay off, you could just stop trying to squeeze alot out of TPTK and wait for the nuts.

Second option: You could pound the hell out of TPTK. Make bigger bets, often overbet the pot, isolate players, and make the draws pay like hell to get you after the flop. The conceptual problem is that you are inviting calls from hands that are ahead. But in fishy 25NL, I think you get compensated often enough by bad calls that this works. It also contributes to a maniacal image, and draws players to the felt with you with hands like 2 pair when you make your draws.

I have used the first option and improved my win rate from it when I play 25NL. The second option I haven't tried but I have seen alot of players using it with success.

[carlo]

Agree with option#1-playing weak-tight in these situations may bring in less dough but your losses will be greatly restricted.

As Doyle says " with A's or K's you'll either"

1)Win a small pot
or
2) Lose a big pot

regards,
carlo