A Moment of Clarity [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

HoldingFolding

11-11-2004, 10:11 PM

I was fairly convinced I was ahead, but perhaps there was a set out there...however, if there wasn't and these guys were going all in with rubbish...then I'd be better placed to win it in the long run by letting the idiots knock each other out. Especially since this was only the second hand and in the first hand other players had made massive overbets. So either way folding was correct. Any thoughts?

[Incidentally I was playing at about 7:00am est for the first time and on all my tables the play was excessive; all ins from the word go. I wondered it was due to Europeans on their lunch breaks needing to finish quickly. Just a thought.]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

BB (t1055)
UTG (t785)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t785)
Hero (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t790)
SB (t585)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to t75, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t65, BB folds, UTG calls t60.

Flop: (t240) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets t510 (All-In), UTG calls t510, Hero folds.

Turn: (t1260) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1260) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1260

Results in white below: 
SB has Jc Tc (one pair, tens).
UTG has 7s As (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: SB wins t1260.

SpeakEasy

11-12-2004, 01:52 AM

Without looking at your results yet, I call, and probably re-raise all in. You are getting 2 to 1 with the call. Nothing from their play indicates AA or JJ. Based on SB's play here (and being down about 300 after one hand already), I would assume that SB would re-raise you all in before the flop if he had AA or JJ. The SB all-in bet looks like a flush draw or the J hit him. The call looks like the flop paired UTG, and he thinks SB is on a draw and possibly steaming since SB is the short stack and down about 300 after one hand.

If SB hit the set, that's unfortunate. However, my guess is that UTG did not hit a set or he would have raised all in to spook you away in case you are on a diamond draw. I would assume that I am ahead on this hand and go all in. I would not be afraid of the diamonds -- this is the kind of flop you are looking for with KK.

SpeakEasy

11-12-2004, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was fairly convinced I was ahead, but perhaps there was a set out there...however, if there wasn't and these guys were going all in with rubbish...then I'd be better placed to win it in the long run by letting the idiots knock each other out. Especially since this was only the second hand and in the first hand other players had made massive overbets. So either way folding was correct. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree. I you think you are ahead, there is only one play to make, without any hesitation. Folding is not correct if you are ahead here. Relying on other players to accumulate chips, based on the assumption that they are knocking others out at the same time, is weak poker.

If you are going to RAISE with KK, and then FOLD when an A doesn't hit on the flop, you might as well fold the kings pre-flop and save the bet. Folding KK pre-flop would be the logical conclusion of the strategy to "let others knock each other out" and sneak into the money.