Folding the flop headsup

The other day I asked a specific question, which i could summarize as 'why call a flop of AK3r with JT when you are second (last) to bet? [and you had raised b4 the flop]. the answers all seemed to suggest that you should never fold a flop like this, and I had an impression that the people who answered (thanks!) would rarely fold any flop headsup. I have seen that a lot watching and playing online: People never ever fold any flop. I know agression is good, but I think that *never* (or 98%) folding the flop has to be wrong.


What do others think? Do you ever fold the flop?


I am looking for mathematical and psychological reasons, and even what people think is a correct approx percentage to fold flops...


...I know I am nuts, but humor me.


hehe


Mark

I am no way connected with or promoting a site here.


If you haven't already, open a free account at UB(www.ultimatebet.com) and watch some of the HU games played there. At the $20 and $50 tables I see plenty of pre-flop folding.


Hands like 23o; 27o; 38o; etc...what do I expect to get from these hands?


Although from experience, I find you can't fold to often though, because your over-aggressive opponents will steal you blind, pun intended :>).


Hopefully eric123 or some of the other successful HU players will comment on this one.


Good post!


KC50

Hey KC, thanks for the input, but I meant folding POST flop!!!! Not preflop. Of course no one would argue about folding preflop with 72o...but when you get a free ride, like with 53o in the BB, and the flop comes A2Q, I have the feeling many players would not fold, in fact they would not fold anything....and I see that when I watch UB or PP 1-1 or play PP 1-1 too. I know that getting any part of the flop or overcards MUST be played very fast 1-1, but I do not understand playing every hand after getting the flop, including ones where you are likely way behind. Are they too agressive or am i missing something?


thanks!!!!


Mark

Sorry Mark, I misread your post.


One reason for not folding most flops would be that it will only cost you 1 sb max unless you choose otherwise.


If my opponent folded every flop they missed, that would give me the license to bet almost every flop and it would profitable to me. It would also allow me to check behind with monsters to have them catch something on the turn to trap. My opponent would have no information on me but I would on him (knowing my opponent only calls when they have a piece of the flop, including draws.)


I still hope some of the more experienced (and successful) HU players will comment.


Hope this helps,


KC50

KC,


thanks for the post. Here's what I think, and I have been thinking a lot about this and I am surprised that no one else has commented, since this may be so important to 1-1:


If I miss completely, no pair, no single A or K overcard (or two minor overcards), no draws of any kind, then I think that it is wise to fold. Why?


a. This happens pretty infrequently.

b. Raising or checkraising enough has to keep the opponent honest.


So with 98s, on the button, I raise, the opponent calls, the flop comes KQ3r, they bet into me, I think it is wise to fold. If I had QJs instead he would get raised; or with KQ or KK or QQ or another monster I would wait to raise. The opponent cannot simply always bet into me with impunity, especially if I am aggressive when I have something (anything).


What do you think?


Mark

I would tend to check more with 98s but raise on occassion on the button and raise more with small to med pairs and broadway cards. The reason is that this is a medium suited connector that creates many situations that can be winning hands. If you can get in cheaply (for one SB) then it affords you the opportunity to call a flop when you miss.


When I spoke of trapping with monsters previously, I was referring to hands like top pair and a draw vs true monsters like AA, KK or QQ and you flop a set. Those may come once or twice in a session or may not come at all. Even middle pair is noramlly very very strong HU.


I agree with you on folding your 98 scenario often but only against the lesser aggressive type. Against the over aggressive type I would call often enough not to be man handled. Even the lesser aggressive type will become more aggressive knowing you will fold often enough for a bet to be profitable.


It's all about getting to know your opponent. In HU it may take more than one session with an opponent for me to realize to realize why I'm getting my brains beaten in. Most likely it's due to folding too often.


I do think it's better though (if I do fold to often) to fold early in the hands rather than later.


KC50

I by no means claim to be a good player but here's my opinion anyway. I created a hold'em computer simulation program that simply showed me the winning % of all starting hands. I collected stats for everything from heads up to 10 player. No hands folded, no betting. Just what the winning % is for any pocket cards.


I'm learning that the fuller the table the less I can use this information. However, at heads up the information is extremely valuable. I'm against one opponent and I know the mathematical winning odds of my hand. The basic guideline is fold anything with less than a 50% winning rate.


I don't play exactly that way but I think I do better in short handed games because of this information.

I misread your post also. First mistake I ever made.

No problem, I even mis-read my post. My writing style is sometimes obtuse. Check my last message in the list to KC50 where I talk about what I think the right move is in post flop play...


Mark

"The basic guideline is fold anything with less than a 50% winning rate. "


No! What about the blinds!

There are many times when I would fold the flop. With a hand like that you described, I would try to determine how far behind (if at all) I was, and how it related to the way the hand would play out. You should have at least 4 good outs, so your equity at this point is at least 16% (2 cards to come). A raise might be a better play, but much would depend on my opponent, but if you're far behind, it's not a good call.

It's wrong never to fold on flop headsup.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

"I don't play exactly that way.."


It just kinda helps to know that your hand wins 70% of the time when you are deciding how to respond to being raised. I'm actually relying less and less on the numbers, especially when I'm tilted and call with 94o cause I want a 9s full to kill the guy who just burned me! (p.s. 94o ain't even on the radar scope on my chart)

If a player is often betting into you on the flop you should sometimes just call with middle pair also and then be prepared to raise on the turn + check the river if unimproved. This works even better if they will fold middle pair to a raise on the turn.