Splitting SnGs

[stupidsucker]

Maybe I am out of my gourd but...

Wouldnt it be best to split the prize money in a sng when you hit 5 or 6 people? even if you did it at the 6 man mark, you would each make a 51.5% roi AND it would take half the time as a normal SnG.

Even a good chip lead at this point would be worth sacrificing for the 51% roi, and the short time it took.

BUT

are you even allowed to split sngs? Why not, it means more $RAKE$ for them.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I am out of my gourd but...

Wouldnt it be best to split the prize money in a sng when you hit 5 or 6 people? even if you did it at the 6 man mark, you would each make a 51.5% roi AND it would take half the time as a normal SnG.

Even a good chip lead at this point would be worth sacrificing for the 51% roi, and the short time it took.

BUT

are you even allowed to split sngs? Why not, it means more $RAKE$ for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing something important: if that was the deal, and everyone knew it, they would play tremendously differently, and the results (as far as your likelihood of making it into the top 5 or 6) would not at all be the same as they are when only 3 get paid.

eastbay

[stupidsucker]

I already thought about that.

If a group of people (say 2+2) started asking at tables for this then maybe it would start to catch on a little. As it grows for a while it will get easier and easier. It would peak for a while, then the tables would start getting too passive. Ride it out untill it seems too pasive. Then start picking and chosing your tables. If one is obviously too passive trying for the split method then start stealing hands.

Just for fun I started saying to everyone.. "hey lets split it 5 ways." They all think im joking.


I dont see this as ever working, just a stupid thought to occupy my mind. Besides I am 90% sure that pary skins wont alow it anyways.

[eastbay]

Yeah, there's no way to split on party, even in the big tournaments. Only way to do it is via trust. That wouldn't last in the SnGs.

eastbay

[dogsballs]

It just works to reduce variance. I believe my advantage over most others increases as the table gets shorter. So I'd hate it.


edit: I often got asked to chop and did so; mostly to be nice and get on with the next one. Now I refuse unless its someone I know is tough or a regular I'm friendly with.

[stupidsucker]

For fun I kept asking at my tables to split it last night. I had like 3 people that actualy understood the concept, and why it was a good deal. One table I was chip leader by a long shot and was asking. People wouldnt even respond to such madness.

I got into a pissing contest with one guy. "Pro poker players dont split anything, they go for 1st always!" I replied that a good pro poker player will always make the best EV choice. "Doyle didnt get where he is by spliting anything" I stopped talking when someone else said "LoL , I think he means Hoyle"

I think I busted in 4th on this one :/

[BigHobo]

I think the biggest problem (besides the fact that the sites don't provide for it) is that when you're down to 5 or 6 guys there is usually one guy who has 30-40% of the chips at the table. No way he's taking 1/6 of the prize money.

[viennagreen]

I think that I might have been at a table with you last night--- but your screen name wasn't stupid-sucker...

There was a guy at one of my games who kept suggesting to split it. Even to give the big-stack a double portion. Then he busted out 4th or 5th and said "I wish we had split it"...

Anyway-- maybe that was you? I just ignored him/you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stupidsucker]

Viennagreen are you one of these people?

jackthemall
SpekaEngrish
MrSweets28
lulu76
EddieFic
KobeNguyen

If not then it must have been another table, but I am fairly sure that was me. Vrel_sz is my empire handle.

I was in a goofball mood that night. I kept saying "Arrrrrr", and "Im a pirate". Not a normal thing for me.

[OneStuckFish]

In single tables, the 3 way chop is the way to go..everyone is guaranteed better than second place money. No problem in offering this is a.) we are all good players and the money is close, b.) the blinds are sky high, or c.) you need to book a good solid win for whatever the reason may be.
1stuck

[Benholio]

*derail*

Ah, I thought maybe that you were Vrel_SZ. You berated me after busting you with a pot odds call 3-handed the other day. By the way, 86o versus roughly top 40% of hands (any ace, any king, any pair, any broadway, suited queens) is about 36% to win, so I did have the odds to call!

Sorry for busting you with 2 underdog hands, though.. :P

[stupidsucker]

It took me some time, but I found the HH. I remember the hand well, because I have been thinking about it a lot. I did the math and your call with 68o was indeed good pot odds for chip EV.

Anyays, I didnt exactly berate you.
Acording to the HH I said exactly this

3rd man: What a call
ME: ok, now that one I don't understand
ME:Thats horrible
You: Do the math
You: 68 vs top 30% of hands
Me: Ok I will
You:is better then 33%

hehe if you think this is beratement then you are missing out. I think I was incredibly calm for that string of events. I had just lost 9 in a raw. FINALLY I am ITM . I push with A7 you call J7 I lose. I push A9s you call with 68o.. I go out in 3rd. I didnt understand the call, and my first reaction was that it was horrible. I understood the J7 call because of the BB and your low stack.

By your logic here you should be calling a lot of all ins once ITM as long as the pot odds are around 33%ish. I would still thenk the FE you gain by staying out of it may be better. Not to mention that more often then not you lose a healthy stack, and now you are on the defensive.

You may be right. Normally I would fold 68o here in a heartbeat. Anyone else care to comment, or should we move this to another thread. I am truely interested.

Sorry I said it was horrible. It appeared very bad to me at first, and I can be a sore loser.

[Benholio]

Bah don't apologize man, I was really just giving you a hard time. Your response after those two hands was completely understandable. I just couldn't resist the obligatory "I told you so", since obviously I gave the hand some thought too. I was pretty confident with it at the time, but I knew you were a solid player so I had to back and do the numbers after the fact.

I do call often when I am getting better than 2:1 (was something like 2.3:1 this time), but I have never considered the implications of staying out of the hand for FE, etc. I imagine it would be pretty hard to quantify the value of different stack sizes in relation to what kind of fold equity they give you, and it would depend greatly on your opponents. Probably not something that we will ever be able to pot into a number to make these kind of things clear winners or losers.

[eastbay]

Ben,

If you are playing on pure chipEV, and wondering where your holes must be: that's it.

eastbay

[Benholio]

I understand the difference between CEV and $EV for sure. I certainly don't play on pure ChipEV.

If you think the type of call mentioned in this thread is incorrect, though, I'd love to see the analysis behind it.

[stupidsucker]

***** Hand History for Game 1170872236 *****
400/800 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7143313) - FRI NOV 12 19:11:43 EST 2004
Table Table 11646 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Saden (2900)
Seat 2: Vrel_sz (1180)
Seat 6: kcpk911 (3920)
kcpk911 posts small blind (200)
Saden posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Vrel_sz [ As, 9c ]
Vrel_sz: im not down that much
Vrel_sz raises (1180) to 1180
Vrel_sz is all-In.
kcpk911 folds.
Saden calls (780)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6h, Js, Kc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Creating Main Pot with $2560 with Vrel_sz
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2560 |
Board: [ 6h Js Kc Jc 4h ]
Saden balance 4280, bet 1180, collected 2560, net +1380 [ 6d 8c ] [ two pairs, jacks and sixes -- Kc,Js,Jc,6d,6h ]
Vrel_sz balance 0, lost 1180 [ As 9c ] [ a pair of jacks -- As,Kc,Js,Jc,9c ]
kcpk911 balance 3720, lost 200 (folded)

[stupidsucker]

acording to the ICM using these stats

win 34%
tie 1%
lose 65%

Your $EV is almost exactly even. In your favor by about $1

now look at the circumstances. I only have 1200 in chips, I am UTG I can push with a lot less then premium hands. As a matter of fact I would push with almost anything. Especially suited connectors like 89s.

If you throw these hands into the mix you win rate goes up slightly but the tie rate doubles, actually leaving you with less $EV then if it were premium hands.

1200 is still better then 1/3 your chips. I cant see calling based solely on chip ev here to be wise. You still have a very nice stack for FE, and you will be in great position to take back the 600 chips the next hand with no contest.

To your defense. even if I do win the hand, from now on I am going to be a lot more cautions with what I push against your BB. (cept now I would have the chips to make all those rags bad pot odds)

[Benholio]

Based on a 36% chance of winning the hand if I call, I get the following $EV numbers:

$EV if I fold: .3299

$EV if I call and win: .407
$EV if I call and lose: .2933

$EV for calling (.36)*(.407)+(.64*.2933)= .334232

Based on that, it is indeed a +CEV and a +$EV move.

The point that I was really asking about, is about how much future CEV (or $EV for that matter) you gain by having (potentially) higher FE on future moves.

[Benholio]

Since you are to my left, you will be in my path in any future steal attemps. If you are to survive this hand (by winning a showdown or by my folding), then ONE of us will have ~1700 chips, basically making ~1700 chips the "ceiling" for any of my raises against you.

This means you will have roughly the same pot odds to call my allin on the next hand no matter what I do. Maybe I would have more FE 2 hands later against the BB, but thats not enough of a guarantee of future value for me to pass on some extra value on the current play.

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see calling based solely on chip ev here to be wise

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it isn't just chip ev, its $ev also, thats what we just showed.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
$EV if I fold: .3299

$EV if I call and win: .407
$EV if I call and lose: .2933

$EV for calling (.36)*(.407)+(.64*.2933)= .334232

Based on that, it is indeed a +CEV and a +$EV move.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok with a 36% chance to win like I said you are right, acording to the ICM it IS indeed $1.30 $ev from the $300 prize pool. but everyone agrees that what the ICM cant do is add in FE acording to the blind structure. I was to your left indeed, and the third man was being rather tight. which means you actually get more chances to steal from me then I do from you.

with the $EV being so low, I personally think that the FE is worth more then $1.30.

I am willing to be wrong. I want to know the true answer, (or majority opinion) so I can start making some "pot odds calls".

Until then, I will be mucking 68o every time that the bet is over 2BBs given that average stack size.

[Benholio]

I see what you are saying about the ICM not taking into account blind sizes, and would also like to see any kind of good analysis in this area.

If all players were equal, though, I don't think it would change your $EV at all.

Take 3 equal players, give them 2500, 1500, 4000 chips, and make the blinds either 10/20 or 300/600 and you will have the same $EV for each player, I think. The only difference would be who currently is about to have to post the blinds, since they will usually be losing chips there (giving a little bit of extra $EV to the button and SB at the expense of the BB I guess).

I think when it does change your $EV is when you run into players who will fold too often during this stage, but will call you more often (and maybe more correctly) when your stack is lower in relation to theirs or the blinds. By staying above that level maybe you are able to get them to make the bad folds more often.

This is part of the reason I didn't hesitate to call you in this spot, because I can't count on having an edge on you in future pots, so I am willing to take the slight value now. If this same spot comes up and I am playing with 2 players that seem terrible, maybe I don't call here, since I can count on getting more +EV moves later on.

[stupidsucker]

the ICM can figure in blind sizes and FE, if you do it manualy.

Ill give you an example.

Lets say next hand you get a random hand. We will just give you 68o again to make the example very comparable. 68o is a bottom 50% hand, so chances are the next hand would actually be better.

moving on.

Here you are in the SB with 68o. I would be the BB(This is assuming you fold the 68o in the previous hand)

Button will push with top 30%
70% of the time you will be faced with push or fold the 68o here.

Lets set my calling standards pretty low at top 27.6% hands (I am much tigher then this)

Push or fold?

pushing gives you a $16.94 edge acording to the ICM...

so if you consider the fact that 70% of the time IF you fold your 86o chip ev/$1.29 ev move you will be in the position to steal for $16.94 EV.

70% * $16.94 = $11.86

$1.29 - $11.86 = <font color="red"> -$10.57</font> for calling with 68o if you consider the next hand possibilities.

[Benholio]

But wait, if I call and lose, won't I be faced with a very similar situation on the next hand? You'll be faced with almost the same raise on the next hand as you would be if I fold.

By calling I get my $1.29 right away, PLUS (.36 * my EV for next hand if I win + .64 * my EV for next hand if I lose). Your example assumes that if I call and lose I get absolutely nothing on the next hand.

Your pot odds to call the next hand are going to be almost the same if I call and lose or if I fold, which I imagine would mean you would call with a similar range of hands?

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Your example assumes that if I call and lose I get absolutely nothing on the next hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutly correct. Lemme give that a look.

chip stacks would then be.
1720(SB/you),2560(BB),3720(button)

if you give yourself 86o once again in that situation it is now only $10.26 to push 70%*$10.26 =$7.18*64.6%

The chip EV the next hand if you win is 70%*$18.54 * 34.6%

So the above formula should have read.
($1.29+$4.64+$4.49) - $11.86 = <font color="red">-$1.44 </font>

I would rather someone else other then the two of us put some thought into it. I honestly dont want this to look like two kids bickering over a hand from a few days ago (I would be the one to look bad since I am the one that lost).

I am seriously just in seacrh of the truth so I can impliment it in my game if it is the right move.

EDIT:: My equation is still not perfect because it doesnt take inconsideration if the button does push the 30% of the other time, but that shouldnt change the numbers much at all.