Should This Be an Easy Fold? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

sthief09

11-11-2004, 06:24 PM

OK I had a read, but I'm not going to provide it yet. First I want to know how strong a read I need to fold this hand. Before I looked at his stats, I wanted to fold but felt unsure.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB raises, BB folds, Hero...

joker122

11-11-2004, 06:29 PM

against an unknown i'm definitely calling down. if you had the right read i could find a fold though.

blackaces13

11-11-2004, 06:30 PM

That's anything but an easy fold. I'd call it down.

Piiop

11-11-2004, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
against an unknown i'm definitely calling down. if you had the right read i could find a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

same. would need a very specific read to fold.

ode

11-11-2004, 06:34 PM

I don't think it's an easy fold, but that depends a lot on you'r opponent. Against very poor opponents I would often call, against good player, often fold.

If your opponent is decent, then you could be against a set of fives or nines, JTs or maybe a 76s.

If your opponent is loosey goosey then you could be against two pair, might be also a weirdly played AQ. If this is a ase then you would have at least 4-outs to improve.

Or hell, some people like to raise turn with just flush draw..

But blah, what do I know..

/ode

Richard Berg

11-11-2004, 06:36 PM

You have 8 outs much of the time, so the turn call is easy without a very specific read. The real question is whether to call again if he bets a river blank.

I'd 3-bet, but that's because I'm currently playing .5/1 tables that are easy to push around.

ErrantNight

11-11-2004, 06:37 PM

easy call down in a lot of respects... but a number of reads would make this a fold situation, although i'm usually trapped paying off here... particularly against passive players give this up... but i think you knew that... no, it's not an easy fold, but you should be willing to give this up

TripleH68

11-11-2004, 06:45 PM

I have a hard time laying this one down as it could easily be a semi-bluff with a hand like QJ or a four flush.

If the villain leaned strong to passive I would be blinded by the number of bad cards I could see on the river...and may fold.

blackaces13

11-11-2004, 06:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Against very poor opponents I would often call, against good player, often fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would tend to do the opposite but as usual, it depends what kind of "bad" player we are speaking of. However, most poor players err towards being loose/passive and have no idea of such concepts as the semi-bluff so it is much easier to take their actions at face value.

Against stheif's former (and current) self for instance, I'd NEVER fold this hand if he raised me on the turn. Most good players are much more aggressive than weak ones.

sthief09

11-11-2004, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time laying this one down as it could easily be a semi-bluff with a hand like QJ or a four flush.

If the villain leaned strong to passive I would be blinded by the number of bad cards I could see on the river...and may fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a protected pot, so the chances of it being a semi-bluff go down

BWebb

11-11-2004, 07:01 PM

I'd call the turn and fold the river unimproved, unless I knew the player was a maniac.

blackaces13

11-11-2004, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call the turn and fold the river unimproved, unless I knew the player was a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call the turn you're not folding the river.

sthief09

11-11-2004, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call the turn and fold the river unimproved, unless I knew the player was a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have enough real outs to make this a viable option. there's reverse implied odds on the outs that I think are outs but aren't

sthief09

11-11-2004, 07:08 PM

this doesn't really matter, but he was like 34/7/1.00 over 400 hands, and his c/r % was 0, so I just folded. he turned a set of 9s. the other player called him down with Q7

sthief09

11-11-2004, 07:09 PM

opponent is reasonable

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 6 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero...

easy fold right?

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:13 PM

This depends on the player doesn't it. If this player would never do this with a draw on the turn, then you can put him on turned 2 pair, set or a str8. It doesn't seem like a top pair play, but ya never know. What is does he c/r this type of turn with?

I'd call it and if i didn't improve on the river, then i'd consider laying it down. But without player knowledge though, i'd call 1 bet on the river for the info. I think you're beat, but i'm curious as to with what. Smells like a set.

b

ErrantNight

11-11-2004, 07:14 PM

small pot... if you aren't drawing dead already no more than 5 outs... and you hafta call on the river if a blank falls... i don't know if it's easy... but release

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Against very poor opponents I would often call, against good player, often fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many poor opponents have very tight turn c/r standards. Many good players have looser c/r standards in this spot.

b

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd 3-bet, but that's because I'm currently playing .5/1 tables that are easy to push around

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting line. Unless this player is tricky and maniacal, you'd have to fold to a cap though.

b

blackaces13

11-11-2004, 07:17 PM

Maybe I suck but I'd be seeing a showdown here as well.

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it's a protected pot, so the chances of it being a semi-bluff go down

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's worth going for if you get the best hand out. Even if the other guy calls, it can greatly improve this players chance of winning if you're out and he has a lesser hand than yours but better than the caller.

A semibluff doesn't have to get everyone to fold to make it work. Just the key hands.

b

ErrantNight

11-11-2004, 07:20 PM

i could be wrong, but i'm thinking one of the reasons for folding this is that when you do improve you don't know when, so you can't extract maximum value, and you could be drawing dead, not to mention that there are a plethora of reasonable holdings that you're now ahead of on the turn that could improve to beat you on the river (including another K falling)

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the turn you're not folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can if you know this player isn't likely to do this with less than 2 pair. You have lots of outs to see the river. Then you know you have to improve and if you miss you lose.

b

joker122

11-11-2004, 07:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

small pot... if you aren't drawing dead already no more than 5 outs... and you hafta call on the river if a blank falls... i don't know if it's easy... but release

[/ QUOTE ]

against J9, which is very possible, he has 8 outs. i'm not saying i'd call though...i'm not sure what i would do.

bernie

11-11-2004, 07:24 PM

Yep. He's saying he can beat a set of Ks. Or at least he has TPTK buried.

b

MortalNuts

11-11-2004, 07:29 PM

Hi sthief --

I think this one's fine against most people. Your turn check-raise pretty clearly says you have AK or better most of the time, and his turn 3-bet pretty clearly says he can beat that. If by "reasonable" you mean that hands like J3 and 93 are ruled out, and that this will be a pure bluff only a tiny tiny fraction of the time, then you are up against KJ, J9, or 33 (or maybe 99) most of the time, and against those hands you don't have enough outs on average to continue, much less to call down. I'm not a huge fan of folding decent hands heads-up, but I would let this one go.

In the original hand, by contrast, you have neither defined your hand as well (so your opponent's aggression can mean more hands), and (as originally posted) you have no read that allows you to rule out wacky two-pairs (against which you have more than enough outs to call down). In that hand, your opponent has to be so passive and predictable that his turn check-raise in a protected pot means specifically a set like, all the time, for your fold to be correct.

just my 2c.

cheers,

mn

pudley4

11-11-2004, 07:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
opponent is reasonable

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 6 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero...

easy fold right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I swear I played this exact hand last night (and folded the turn)

MortalNuts

11-11-2004, 07:31 PM

or, of course, QT. blech.

-mn

sthief09

11-11-2004, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yep. He's saying he can beat a set of Ks. Or at least he has TPTK buried.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

I just kind of auto checked. under normal circumstances, I'd lead at the turn. I kind of like my line because it overrepresents my hand. I was about to fold, but then I got really suspicious. I played the hand just like a set, and only QT could beat a set. I didn't even think to myself that KJ could be pretty damn sure that I don't have a set, and that's what he had. I don't know why but I paid him off. he gave me a free showdown though when the river 9 paired. I guess he put me on AA

helpmeout

11-11-2004, 07:36 PM

The turn checkraise is an expensive way to see whether your hand is good or not.

I prefer betting out here, you only have TPTK.

Since you checkraised and he 3bet it is pretty obvious he has QT.

Richard Berg

11-12-2004, 12:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd 3-bet, but that's because I'm currently playing .5/1 tables that are easy to push around

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting line. Unless this player is tricky and maniacal, you'd have to fold to a cap though.

b

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, it takes a specific degree of attentiveness by your opponents. In 6 hours I showed down lots of big hands but only 1 total bluff. They seemed to notice, and responded. Obviously, we here all realize that's because I (1) stole a lot of pots that should have gone to showdown against a thinking opponent (2) folded when necessary, e.g. to a cap here. They didn't seem to notice, and didn't respond by firing back. Score.

Richard Berg

11-12-2004, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
small pot... if you aren't drawing dead already no more than 5 outs... and you hafta call on the river if a blank falls... i don't know if it's easy... but release

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you dramatically underestimate the percentage of times SB has a crappy 2-pair. I also don't think calling here compels him to call a river bet unimproved.

bernie

11-12-2004, 03:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't even think to myself that KJ could be pretty damn sure that I don't have a set,

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless my opponents show they're privy to thinking this deep in the hand, i don't give them credit for it. I think the greater percentage of the time it's at least a set or better. However, it's good to know he'll 3 bet this on the turn.

b