Open ended str8 flush flop, push with no folding equity??

[Burno]

Party 25NL. Hero has $47, villian is loose, weird, and fishy. He is just to my right and has me covered($220).

Hero is dealt T /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP

UTG limps, villian limps, hero limps, some folds, BB checks, 4 to the flop for $2.25.

FLOP 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked around to me in MP and I bet $2.00. Blinds drop, UTG calls $2.00. Villian to my right now check-raises to $14. So it's $12.00 to me in a ~$20 pot.

My read on the villian is that is almost certainly two pair, probably 80% of the time. 10% of the time here he has a set, and %5 AK and %5 of the time he has nothing. Now, I love to push on str8 flush draws, I love to gambool it up with thin +EV edges. But my read here is that if I push, he is definitely calling.

Now against the range of hands I have him on we are nearly 50/50, almost exactly that if he has 89 or A9. So do I still push here without any folding equity? Do I push because there is no other +EV way to play it? Or am I missing something?

[Klak]

why not just call? you are 50/50 and you will know if you improve on turn. if there is no chance he would fold, the push doesnt accomplish anything.

[amoeba]

and if hero doesn't improve on the turn? does he check fold?

[Burno]

I just replied but the post didn't show up, so if this gets two replies from me I apologize.

Just calling feels wrong to me. Do I check/fold if I miss? What I am trying to avoid is the situation that would come up if I call and I miss. My stack and the pot will both be around $32 and my draw will be ~2:1 with one to come. So unless the board pairs, I may get stuck calling off my stack on a draw, which makes me sick. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Spelling edited

[amoeba]

alright, so this decision is pretty easy.

you can't fold.

calling doesn't seem that good.

push and he won't fold.

So what about raising but not pushing? if he comes over the top, you call and its just like a push, oh well. If he flat calls, he might just check the turn on a blank.

Of course his propensity to check the turn influences your decision.

[JaBlue]

Come on now, this is a very simple situation. You are 50-50 to win, but are NOT getting 1:1 on your money. You are getting much more than that because of the money all ready in the pot. Pushing is HUGE +EV.

Just to show:
Pot is 20$ you have 27$ left, right?

Expected Value = (you win - you lose) = .5(47 [his call+the pot) - .5(27 your push) = EV of .5(20) or $10.00. Also note that with you as a slight favorite it gets better: .53(47) - .47(27) = 12.22$

So pushing makes you 10-12$ in the long run, which is awesome.

[gergery]

I’d call, hoping to give UTG enough odds to come in as well.

You have odds to get all your money in (even discounting a couple outs that UTG might have), so the question is how? Villian might put you on a set or just play strange and check the turn, in which case I’d take a free card, and if he pushes the turn then you’re still getting correct odds to call. The only way this would be worse than pushing now is if you think he might fold if you hit your turn card, but it doesn’t sound like that’s the case with this guy. Net, if he won’t fold no matter what then pushing doesn’t accomplish anything – it just takes away from your EV in the scenarios where you miss your hand but could have folded without getting all the chips in.

So pushing is EV+. But calling is more EV+, if you assume he’s not folding this hand period.

--Greg

[Burno]

Your point is dead on I think, but your numbers are off. There is 6 in the pot when he raises my $2 bet to 14. So it's 12 to me with 20 in the pot and I have ~45 remaining.

[Burno]

Is the reward of letting UTG in worth the risk of him having a bigger flush draw when an all-in would make him lay down? What else would he come along with in the face of such a big raise?

If I call, what do you estimate the chances are he checks to me on the turn?

[carlo]

I'm lost in this--you need to hit and he apparently has something or is bluffing to get your $2. If you hit your flush there's a strong possibility he won't pay you off but if you hit your straight he will only pay off if he's strong and possibly not seeing the board. You on the other hand are up against a total loss of stack to win$12 with 2-1 odds and he may have the nut flush(anything is possible).

Why not fold, don't fight the big stack until you have the nuts or real close. Also, you have to deal with UTG--you are in the squeeze--Fold and fight another day.

regards,
carlo

[Burno]

Thanks for all the responses.


So I was unsure what to do. I called, which seems like a donk play. My donk play was contagious however as the villian checked the turn card of T /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I happily checked behind him and was delighted to see the 7 /images/graemlins/club.giffall on the river.

Villian checks, I push, he doesn't even hesitate to call with his 89 and MHIG.

[okayplayer]

You're not serious about folding are you? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
On the flop he's AT MOST a 3:2 dog, but if he pushes here, he's getting better than that on his money, so that's why I'd push. I can see the case made for calling and hoping he checks a blank and calls when you hit, but I think he might check fold if you hit your card, and he could force you into making a -EV call on the turn if a blank hits and he pushes.
I think pushing is the best way to get the money. Plus, a call would entice a higher flush draw to stay in if the other guy has Kx /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[carlo]

Ok, its true /images/graemlins/frown.gif--I'm squeaky tight--not prepared to lose a stack on a draw. Been playing PLO high where the nuts is important and I can see that it's a little different with NLHE and I've carried that thinking here.

I'm learning and appreciate your approach and it is dutifully placed in memory for furthur use/consideration. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

regards,
carlo