3 handed 22

[citanul]

Friend and I are having a debate on the following hand:

We've just busted the 4th place player.

Hero is on the BB, which is about 4 hands into 250/500 blinds.
Next hand Hero will be the button. (short stack will be sb, big stack will be bb.)

Button has 5550, UTG has 2200, Hero has 2250.

UTG folds, button pushes, Hero has 22.

Hero?

citanul

[ThorGoT]

Fold. Next hand, open raise all in. You have folding equity next hand. You have none this hand.

[The4thFilm]

you're ahead of 32o and that's about it

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
you're ahead of 32o and that's about it

[/ QUOTE ]

your post is both an amazing waste of yours and your reader's time, and incorrect.

post when you have something more insightful than "i learned to tie my shoes today" to say.

citanul

[Jman28]

This can be figured out mathematically. I really don't wanna do it though.

You'd have to put him on a range of hands (which shouldn't matter much cuz your usually against 2 overs). Then you get the chip EV, which is almost certainly positive, and convert it to $EV.

Hope someone does the calculation there. It should be pretty close I think.

-Jman28

[jrm]

Your opponent most likely has over cards. So with 22, you're pretty much in a coin flip. If you call, you lose half the time, and take 20% of the prize money. If you win, you get about a 37% share (according to ICM). This gives you an EV of about 28.525% of the prize pool. If you fold, you get a 28.45% of the prize pool (again by ICM). This is definitely a close one.

I don't think calling is a bad play here. If you fold, you're left with 1750 and the big stack is getting 2:1 odds to call your push from the button next hand, so you won't get too much fold equity there.

[karlson]

If it really is dead even according to ICM then the fact that you have the button next hand (3-handed) should push you to fold.

I originally thought the answer to this problem would be to call (and it's not that close) but if these ICM calculations are right, I stand corrected.