smelling quads here -EV?

[fimbulwinter]

I'll get it out of the way, my read was right, however, long term should i call this river bet?

200NL, 2/4 blinds

me: 88
him: complete fish, has all the fish betting patterns. this is his third buyin and he's going to "play until he wins it back"

he has ~300 i have him covered.

I'm in bb, he's in sb

Preflop:
he raises to 10, i call.

Flop (20): KK4
he bets 12, i raise to 30, he calls.
whoops.

Turn (80): K
he bets 10, i call.

River(100): 2
he pushes in for 200 more, I fold.

this is a folder, right?

fim

[illmatic]

you have to either fold the river or raise the turn significantly to take it down or find out for sure where you're at. I like your play, firing a bullet on the flop and then shutting down. The likelihood he has a hand that beats you (K or higher pair) having raised pre-flop is relatively high.

later,
illmatic

[Triumph36]

Read?

All you beat here is a bluff, and he bet 2X the pot. If he's willing to bluff at it like that, more power to him. You'll stack him some other time.

I think raising the flop was a mistake, especially making such a paltry raise. You had no idea where you were when he called that, especially if he is such a fish. I'd think about smooth-calling the flop and raising the turn. If he's on a bluff, you can get him off it there, if he calls your raise, you know to drop it or check behind on the river.

[DBowling]

I think you played it fine. Him calling your flop reraise pretty much tells you that youre behind the whole way. The only possible hand you might have beat is AQ, depends how big of a fish he is. I fold river too

[amoeba]

its the turn underbet that worries me.

Hes either doing it with a K or hes doing it with 44.

The river all in rules out 44.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Read?

All you beat here is a bluff, and he bet 2X the pot. If he's willing to bluff at it like that, more power to him. You'll stack him some other time.

I think raising the flop was a mistake, especially making such a paltry raise. You had no idea where you were when he called that, especially if he is such a fish. I'd think about smooth-calling the flop and raising the turn. If he's on a bluff, you can get him off it there, if he calls your raise, you know to drop it or check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post makes no sense to me.

[Triumph36]

Uh, it made sense to me.

All you beat on the river is a bluff. Your hand is not particularly strong. The bettor bet 2 times the pot, I believe. You can't call there with such a weak hand, especially when he's feigned weakness with a bet of 10 on the turn.

The problem with the hand is that you don't really know where you are. You raised the flop and he called. If he is a fish, he could've called with several different hands, some of which you are ahead of, some of which you are behind. I suggested calling on the flop and raising/betting on the turn. If he re-raises that bet, you know you are beaten, and can confidently fold.

[shadyfin]

This is a problem with getting involved in marginal situations with fishy players. One thing I have noticed is that a lot of these players don't understand making a bet on the end that another player can call when they have the nuts - I've seen a lot of players make boats,quads,flushes, etc and go all-in at the end only to have the rest of the table fold (sometimes some other fishy player will still call). So... against a good player, this looks like they are trying to buy the pot (or they try to make you think they are) - against fish, they want to get a lot of money in one shot when they can't loose - and since you said the guy was on his third buyin - I give him credit for the hand and move on. In fact you should prob thank him for moving in at the end. you would have had to call some nice size bets on the end otherwise.

In the long term - I would stay away from getting too involved with a flop this dangerous. Wait for better prospects.

[LokiV]

Well, Triumph is half right... which is still a failing grade. There are plenty of hands you can beat, and what you can't beat is a higher PP or a king. In order to decipher this, yes a turn reraise/fold is in order.

If he calls the reraise then pushes all in next time or pops all in right after your reraise, let it go down.

What is so neat about a super fish is that you can min-raise on the turn and he'll think you're representing a king for sure or will go to the felt right then and there 90% of the time.

So Triumph, yes he can beat more than a bluff. Yes, he should reraise on the turn.

[Triumph36]

If someone says bets are split into two categories, value bets and bluffs, this bet of Villain's, if called by Hero, must fall into that of bluff from Hero's perspective. For Villain to lead out at the flop as he did, and bet the turn as he did, it must've been a bluff from the very beginning. I don't see Villain "value-betting" (whatever that means for a "fish") 77 or lower the whole way, or a 4. This is either a K or a higher pocket pair, or a straight bluff.

Hero never found out whether or not it was a bluff, and must fold the river. I don't think getting involved in marginal situations with fish is +EV.