Pushed with flush+belly buster. + -ev?

[kongo_totte]

$50 NL Hold'em Full ring
I´m in SB with As Kc. I have about $107. JoGrams7 (villian) has $37

jwcobb1202 calls
tuomari folds.
poyas folds.
tnhockyfan calls
aiwix folds.
theswami folds.
skrumplever folds.
VanVeen folds.
Kongo_Totte raises to $3
JoGrams7 raises to $5
jwcobb1202 folds.
tnhockyfan folds.
Kongo_Totte calls

2 players see the flop

Flop ($12) 8c, Tc, 9c

Kongo_Totte bets $6
JoGrams7 raises $12
Kongo_Totte calls $6.

<font color="white"> </font> Turn ($36) Qd (villian has $21 left)

Kongo_Totte pushes
JoGrams7 calls all-In.

River 7d

Showdown in white:
<font color="white">Kongo_Totte shows [ As, Kc ] high card ace.
JoGrams7 shows [ Ks, Kh ] a pair of kings. </font>

Is pushing stupid? I really don't see how I can get away from it. Villain just sat down and no PT stats on him.

[Raiser]

I don't really like it. At the time, your opponent is basically pot committed.

For this to be a good play, IMO, you have to have a shot that your opponent will fold. He pushed you on the flop so he likes his hand. I don't see him folding getting ~2.7:1 on the turn.

Just my $0.02.

Edited to say: Plus you don't even have the nut flush draw. That makes it even more questionable IMO.

[kongo_totte]

Ok. But let's say I would check, or block bet the turn. He would probably raise a check and call a block bet, and then I don't know where I am anyway. If he bets I have to call, unless he pushes, consedring the odds I'm getting. If he calls my block bet, say like $5, I'm just deeper in the [censored]. The only other outcome, as I see it, is checking he pushes and I fold, but then there's still the posibility he is bluffing or semi bluffing, and I don't want to give him command of the hand. Am I right?

[amoeba]

you already know where you are.

you raised preflop, he reraised. that to me already narrows his hand down to AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ if he was really aggressive.

you bet the flop, he minraised back. Now, I narrow his hands to AA, AK with flush ace, KK, JJ.

at this point you should think push or fold. I would lean towards fold as you don't have the flush A only the flush K.

"If he calls my block bet, say like $5, I'm just deeper in the [censored]."

what do you mean? thats the point of a blocking bet. That he just calls an amount you are willing to pay to see the river with instead of him betting out an amount which forces you to fold.

you are basically paying $5 to catch your flush/straight.

as it is, your turn push is pretty bad. the entire range of hands which villain can be on will call here. JJ will call with straight, qq will call with set, KK will call, AA will call.

What do you think about a check raise all in strat on the flop?

[Tilt]

Check fold the turn IMO. Sometimes you are just beat and need to limit the damage.

[Sifmole]

Note -- I started this a while befor I finished it and got interrupted while typing. I see someone else beat me to a similar analysis. Mea culpa.

So re-raised you on the flop --

Given a total lack of information, probably has a high pocket pair or high suited cards:
AQ, AJ, AK, QQ, JJ, and less likely AA and KK, KJ, QJ.

You bet out on the flop to see where you were at right? And he raised you again!

So what does he have? Three to a flush on the board, perhaps those AQ, AJ, AK, KJ, QJ suited hands. Of course not the AK or KJ because you have that K; and of course still the QQ, AA, JJ, KK hands -- so 6 likely hands that have you beat. One of which is the top straight flush, and another the nut flush. Both of which you are drawing dead against. He obviously wasn't too concerned ( or at least representing that ) about the flush board.

No flush Q comes down and you Jam $21 more into the pot vs. an opponent who has said he isn't afraid of the flush and has a made hand?

Not my play that is for sure.

I don't like the PF raise with a drawing hand to collect 3.5 bets out of position. You can probably see the flop cheaper. If he still raises to $5 and no other callers -- why play a drawing hand? You are going to win a max of $37 with a $5 PF bet, a best bet of 1:1 because you have one other guy. I fold, not enough payoff.

Say I call, flop isn't too bad I probably take a shot just like you did -- but I fold to the re-raise. I have to figure him for a made hand that isn't afraid of the flush.

The the Q comes down, no way I push-in here. I check, and fold to a significant bet.

Core problem I think:

You were always looking for a reason to bet and continue in the hand. You should be looking for more reasons to fold. Strength like that from an unknown player -- not for my chips.

[kongo_totte]

Thanks amoeba for breaking it down. You are right of course. I guess I had temporarily lost my faith that reading any PP $50 player was possible, since so many players make moves I just can't believe. I don't know how many times I have put opponents on AA KK QQ AKs when they show 87o or even worse. It's really dangerous loosing that belief that there really are some who know how to play.

Well. I don't know about the check push on flop. As you said, his betting tells me AA KK QQ or AK. A PP $50 player would seldom fold AA or KK, add to that the possibility that he may have Ac. I should have block bet, folded if raised, on the turn I think. Or perhaps just check fold, but that seems mighty weak.

[amoeba]

what about a check on the flop.

call a bet if villain underbets the flop and you don't think he will fold to push.

fold if he overbets the flop.

raise all in if you feel he will fold to the push.

of course the flop push is much more useful if you can widen his range of hands to include QQ that he would make that preflop reraise with.

Although JJ with J flush and AA with A flush will call you here.

[gergery]

When you pushed on the turn, what hands did you put him on that you thought you were ahead of? What hands did you put him on that you thought would fold?

[kongo_totte]

Well, When I played the hand I PF put him on AA or KK, although, I think most players would have re-raised slightly more, maybe to $6-7. I would say he is more likely to have AKs or any PP down to 10's (alot of people overplay these hands on NL $50). The fact that I had no info on him makes that I cant really rule out AK AQ AJ KQ or even KT. Alot of players @ these stakes can make that raise w/ any of the above (here is where I make alot of mistakes, I generally consider a random player an idiot, when it's in fact better to overestimate than underestimate unknown opponents, IMO.)

His re minraise on the flop should concern me more than it did. I was stuck in holding him for an idiot. Here I really should be able to put him on a made hand(+ draw). AA w/ flush card, JJ, any set, perhaps QQ w/ flush Q. Although, I with out Ac or Qc I would raise more than min. raise. With a set, I might have min. re-raised. After my flop call, he has to put me on a draw. Maybe A J or either Ac or Kc. The push on the flop I´ve realized was stupid. I obviously didn't make a flush If I was drawing to it. So, the only situations he would fold is:
If he has nothing, just bluffed all the way.
IMO he should consider folding w/ AA no flush card and KK no flush (which he ended up having).

Let's say he put me on a made hand 50% of the time. If he has AA no flush he is drawing dead to any of my obvious made hands. KK no flush card gives him 3 cards to the straight, which would be a correct fold. For all he knows I could have a made flush (Ironically, one of the two hands he could have had and folded, he actually had, but called, wrongly IMO. Although this doesn't in any way excuse my play.

He would call the turn w/ the following hands:
any set
AA w/ flush
AQ w/ flush
KJ
AJ
JJ

Bottom line, I admit the move was bad, and I realize I did it as a result of wrongly underestimating random opponents.

"Core problem I think:

You were always looking for a reason to bet and continue in the hand. You should be looking for more reasons to fold. Strength like that from an unknown player -- not for my chips."

You're correct about this. It's something I'll have to work on.