big draw against an all-in

[tolbiny]

10+1 party tourney- all players left.
I just doubled up through the LP player in this hand and i have T1600 chips. He has T125 left, and the other player (the sb) has a note on him that says "limps with garbage" i reserve this not for people who limp with offsuit unconnected cards, so he is officially welcome at my table. His stack is around T700.

Any way i am in the BB with K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif, and there is one limper to the LP player who pushes all-in for T125. The sb calls after a pause and i call as well, the ep limper folds.
Flop comes a gorgoues T /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif and the sb checks it to me....

[slickterp]

i'd bet about 3x the BB. he got in cheap, you have 2 overcards and a flush draw. good chance you get him out w/ a good sized bet. then you hope you hit a card and beat the all in.

[tolbiny]

"he got in cheap, you have 2 overcards and a flush draw. good chance you get him out w/ a good sized bet"

He didn't exactly get in cheap- he called a 115 chip raise.
But the question is "do i want the sb to fold?". I have a stong draw against a poor player- but folding him out doesn't automatically win me the pot (though it would improve my chances obviously).

[stillnotking]

If the SB limps with garbage, it's highly likely you have the better hand at this point. And even if you don't, he would probably muck a small pair or ace-high to a bet. I can't think of a single argument for checking here. I mean, what are you hoping for, Ac on the turn and he makes a Jack-high flush? If he's drawing to that he'd probably call the flop anyway.

[tolbiny]

There are several considerations i have here-
1. The sb has less than half of my stack, a mistake by me cannot cost me the tourney at this point so i am a little more willing to take a risk to try to a. bust another player out and b. give myself a big chip lead.
2. Because of the all in guy folding out the sb doesn't win me the pot, so building a side pot with a strong hand might be good, and it might not.
As far as hands that the sb could have- Ax and Kx and Qx are all possibilities, as would be a small-medium pair. I think he folds Ax to a bet most of the time, and the smallest of the pairs, but medium pairs he calls with frequently. Kx and Qx i want him to stay in with but he would fold to a flop bet, yet i may be able to take his stack if he hits the K or Q on the turn.

I am nt syaing the checking is correct but there are hands that he could have where it would be profitiable for checking, and i also don't know how much i should bet if i were to.

[stillnotking]

Let's say you check behind him, and then think about what will happen on the turn. Four possibilities here. (I am assuming his check on the flop indicates weakness; most people would bet a good hand rather than trying to be tricky, since you were not the preflop raiser.)

1) Your hand is helped and so is his, but yours is better. This is the best outcome for you but the most unlikely. As you mention, the only realistic possibility is for him to hold Kx or Qx and hit a face card where you have him outkicked. You may make some money here.

2) His hand is helped and yours isn't. Now he's going to bet; can you call?

3) Your hand is helped and his isn't. Even if you bet the turn he does not call.

4) Neither hand is helped. Now you're in the same position you were on the flop. Do you give him another free card or make a semi-bluff?

Overall I think betting the flop is the best play.

[tolbiny]

"This is the best outcome for you but the most unlikely. As you mention, the only realistic possibility is for him to hold Kx or Qx and hit a face card where you have him outkicked"

I also can hit a flush while he pairs one of his hole cards, and i can win some chips that way (though not to likely a ton)

2) His hand is helped and yours isn't. Now he's going to bet; can you call?

my read on him is a "poor" player- poor players tend to not be aggressive and the likely hood of him hitting a hand that is strong enough for him to bet me off my flush draw is slim. In my experience players like him tend to bet the minimum or double the min in these cases.



Again i am not 100% sold on either action, but leaning towards betting- the question is do i want him to call or to fold?

[stillnotking]

Depends what he has. You want him to call if he does not have the pot odds to call, and you want him to fold if he has the best hand (or does not have the best hand but does have pot odds to call). Sorry if that's stating the obvious but I'm not sure how else to answer. For any given hand it's easy enough to work out his odds of winning.

[tolbiny]

Doing it hand by hand is worthless...
Based upon what information you have would you rather he folded to your bet or called? In other words is your bet designed to get him to fold or to call with a hand he shouldn't? Both? More of one than the other?

[ThorGoT]

Pot is big enough to desire. Bet enough so he should fold out (say, half pot), get the money.