Listening To Instincts On Big Laydowns

[gaming_mouse]

I often find myself in medium-large pots with only one bet to call. On the advice of SSH I call the bet down, even though I'm almost certain of my opponent's better hand.

It gets frustrating to keep making these correct calls when your instincts are right and you would have saved a bet by folding. I want to make sure I'm understanding this advice correctly, so here's an example hand....

Feel free to tear away on all streets (my play is pretty awful), but I'm mostly interested in the final call...

Pacific Poker 2/4 Loose Passive

Hero BB 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (8 handed)

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, LP raises, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls (too loose??), UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, LP raises (already I know -- high pocket pair), CO calls, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to LP, who bets. SB folds. I know I'm behind, but now I have odds to draw for a 2-pair or set, so I call. UTG+1 folds

River: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check-call, thinking I should check fold but hearing Ed Miller telling me not to (the pot is 11 big bets, and I suppose there is some off chance I'm being bluffed).

Comments appreciated on this hand in particular, as well as the dilemma in general.

gm

[Koller]

Hi gm,

Fold preflop.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but given that I am already in the hand, comments on the river?? Other streets??

[cnfuzzd]

Ed wasnt talking about blindly paying off on the river. Ed was talking about very specific situations where you think youve had the best hand all along, then someone bets into you, or you get raised and its one back to close and showdown.

At pacific, i dont mind your pf call, although it is VERY thin, but i think i would fold the turn unimproved without a read on the aggressor. You had a read, and it said it was time to laydown. How did those instincts work out?

peace

john nickle

[phillydilly]

Good subject, this is something I run into that drives me nuts.

I'll skip right to the river here
based on the preflop, assume you're looking at big pair or two big cards.

I could see his line with any two big clubs, QJ (if he'd raise preflop with this) and any pocket pair 8s or up.

Just a quick count, has you at 11 Big Bets, I think you have to call

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
but i think i would fold the turn unimproved without a read on the aggressor. You had a read, and it said it was time to laydown. How did those instincts work out?


[/ QUOTE ]

They were correct. He had QQ. Thanks for clarifying Ed's advice -- that makes more sense....

However, I think I had correct drawing odds on the turn (I was counting 5 clean outs). Am I wrong here? Then I should have folded the river when a blank hit.

gm

[MoreWineII]

I'm right there with ya, bud. Biggest leak in my game right now.

Next session, I'm going to start making a conscious effort to use a little more discretion when calling down.

[cnfuzzd]

whoops, sorry, im too reliant on the convertor. You did indeed have the outs to call the turn. Folding rivers like this though will save you tons of cash over the long run.

peace

john nickle

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding rivers like this though will save you tons of cash over the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what my instincts tell me too.

I would love to hear a more detailed discussion by you or another veteran about things to look for in telling the difference between this kind of hand (one you should fold) and the kind Ed Miller recommends always calling with.

gm

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding rivers like this though will save you tons of cash over the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what my instincts tell me too.

I would love to hear a more detailed discussion by you or another veteran about things to look for in telling the difference between this kind of hand (one you should fold) and the kind Ed Miller recommends always calling with.

gm

[/ QUOTE ]
Here's one of those situations from a long while ago. UTG+1 was quite a bit of a LAG (VPIP 33%, PFR 8.3%, Tot-A 3.86). I was 90% sure I was beat, but I'd have to be 93% sure to fold.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.70 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: (12.70 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.70 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 has Th Ts (two pair, kings and tens).
Hero has Jh Jc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.70 BB. </font>

[cnfuzzd]

Entity, just for the record, if you were a true chip-spewer, you would raise the flop....

peace

john nickle

[gaming_mouse]

Entity,

Interesting hand, but I feel like the results may be misleading. As a long term strategy, I think folding this on the flop is better. Especially at 2/4. I don't see this happening even 10% of the time at 2/4 (ie, you winning after similar flop/turn/river action). But maybe I'm wrong??

gm

[Koller]

[ QUOTE ]
Entity,

Interesting hand, but I feel like the results may be misleading. As a long term strategy, I think folding this on the flop is better. Especially at 2/4. I don't see this happening even 10% of the time at 2/4 (ie, you winning after similar flop/turn/river action). But maybe I'm wrong??

gm

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ and gutshot.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
Pacific Poker 2/4 Loose Passive

Hero BB 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (8 handed)

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, LP raises, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls (too loose??), UTG+1 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think it's too loose, but depending on your opinion of the raiser and the relative weakness of your opponents (are they likely to pay off all the way to the river if you flop big?), it's not terrible. You're getting about 8 or 9-to-1, but I'd rather be suited when making this call. By the way, I think it's an easy call if suited.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, LP raises (already I know -- high pocket pair), CO calls, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out seems wrong because LP is likely to raise you regardless of his hand, and now you're in a tough spot. I think I would have checked this flop, and waited to see how the CO and SB respond to the likely LP bet. If it's 2 bets back to you, it's an easy fold. If one of the two (let's say CO, because that's how it looks like it would have gone) just called, you're getting 12-to-1 to see the turn with what amount to roughly 4 outs against an overpair (not 5 because of concern that your 9s are not clean outs), and I think you've got to peel one off.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to LP, who bets. SB folds. I know I'm behind, but now I have odds to draw for a 2-pair or set, so I call. UTG+1 folds

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 10-to-1 here (and now it looks like you've got 5 clean outs, plus the remote possibility that LP is pushing overcards), so that is probably correct, but this is another reason why misplaying a hand earlier in a pot can lose you more money later. Your flop bet essentially tied you to the pot with a likely second best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
River: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check-call, thinking I should check fold but hearing Ed Miller telling me not to (the pot is 11 big bets, and I suppose there is some off chance I'm being bluffed).

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, early mistakes cause you to lose more money than necessary.

[slogger]

I think you had the odds, but they were created by your earlier mistakes. See my response to your initial post:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1246567&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=93&amp;vc=1

[gaming_mouse]

slogger,

very nice analysis. thanks.

gm

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ and gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's very unlikely a gutshot would have played the hand the way the villain did. I actually think the villain's line (with the hand he did have) is fairly atypical (though not extremely atypical). Same goes for JJ.

gm

[cnfuzzd]

entity had the gutshot. that why i told him to raise.

peace

john nickle

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JJ and gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's very unlikely a gutshot would have played the hand the way the villain did. I actually think the villain's line (with the hand he did have) is fairly atypical (though not extremely atypical). Same goes for JJ.

gm

[/ QUOTE ]
He's saying that on the flop and the turn, I've got odds to call on my gutshot. Folding this on the flop or the turn would be a mistake, and on the river, it's REALLY REALLY close, but just close enough that a call is warranted, I think. I was really confused by it at the time, and posted the hand, and the consensus came back that calling the river was the only marginal part of the hand, and it was just close enough (especially w/a read of an opponent with high aggression).

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
entity had the gutshot. that why i told him to raise.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]
That was back in my weak-tight days. If you were villain, I'd raise the flop, turn, and river, and lose to your turned set of 5's. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Rob

[cnfuzzd]

at least you recognize....

peace

john nickle

[slogger]

I think you've got to raise that flop, or fold. Very unlikely he would continue to push a hand you're ahead of after that. If he 3-bets, or bets the turn, you can fold the turn unimproved.

[Edit: just saw the gutshot. no folding the turn. Maybe just calling down is correct now - instead of raising the flop, but not sure.]

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
entity had the gutshot. that why i told him to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad.

gm

[Sarge85]

Outside of the PF call - which has been commented on already - what I'm more curious about is the flop action.

Why has no one mentioned CR'ing this flop? Especially if it gets check to LP who bets and then CO folds.

I think you need to do that here. There are too many times when AK, AQ - 99? will autobet here.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Why has no one mentioned CR'ing this flop? Especially if it gets check to LP who bets and then CO folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. Now, if you are 3-bet (as you likely would be in this case, given his queens) do you call it and then check-fold the turn when a blank hits? Would have saved me 1 or 1.5 BB.

gm

[ZZZ]

gaming_mouse,

The problem with folding this river is that many players will play AK (or a hand like 99) like your opponent did in this hand. And against a player who might fold top pair on the river, they are perfectly correct to do so. So I think the correct action on this river is player dependent, and you should probably call against an unknown since the pot is big.

Perhaps a better line would be to check raise the flop and give your opponent credit for an overpair if he 3 bets the flop and bets the turn, or calls your flop raise and raises the turn. You can be a bit more sure of your read there, and it might save you some bets unless he just calls you down with an overpair (which would cost you an extra SB).

Edit: (Mainly just elaborating on what Sarge said)

ZZZ

[slogger]

It's one thing if CO and SB both fold. But are you going to follow through with the raise if one or both call? If so, why? To protect your hand against MP1 in case he's got overs?

It's not sexy, but I think check-and-call one bet is the correct line on the flop. If CO and SB both fold to LP's bet, I admit it's closer, because then you definitely don't want MP hanging around. The problem is that many of his likely holdings have 8 or or more outs, if he's even behind at this point (and I doubt he's folding a better T).

[Sarge85]

Lets remove the fact we know a 4 is coming on the turn.

If you CR this flop, and he pots it for a third bet - your going to have odds to chase down a 9 or a T. If a card falls to help you hit your straight you'll have odds to chase that as well.

If he doesn't pop back at you -(pushing AK. AQ. or 99 etc...) you may well have the best hand and may have protected a very vulnerable top pair.

The 4 falling was a pooey card, - especially when/if your three bet - it probably means your 9's are no longer outs - and your not helping your straight.

I hope someone comes and tells me I'm way off, cause that is making to much sense to me.....

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[slogger]

The problem if he is 3-bet is the same predicament he found himself in by betting out on the flop to begin with. He is tied to this pot. If he is three-bet, he cannot fold without seeing the turn (he's getting about 18-to-1 to call the 3-bet).

Then, he'd getting better than 10-to-1 on the turn, with 5 outs. A must call.

Also, what happend if LP decides to punish Hero and just calls the flop checkraise, planning to raise a bet on a safe turn card. Now look at the trouble we've gotten Hero into!

I have to emphasize that these types of plays (the flop checkraise, not the pf call) are ones that I make often, and I think it is a big leak in my game. The problem can be avoided by fold preflop, but once you get yourself in a tough spot, it's important to think about what play has the greatest EV. And unless you have a chance to get it heads up with LP, I don't think the checkraise is it.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing if CO and SB both fold. But are you going to follow through with the raise if one or both call? If so, why? To protect your hand against MP1 in case he's got overs?

It's not sexy, but I think check-and-call one bet is the correct line on the flop. If CO and SB both fold to LP's bet, I admit it's closer, because then you definitely don't want MP hanging around. The problem is that many of his likely holdings have 8 or or more outs, if he's even behind at this point (and I doubt he's folding a better T).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% - however I still think you need to check - see what happens, and then make your decision when it gets back to you. I don't think I can automatically say once the flop hit's - Ok I'm CR'ing this flop.

I think I wait and see. Obviously if MP bets, and LP raises - I'm done. If it goes check check, LP bets, fold fold back to me - 9 times out of ten I probably risk two bets to pick this pot up.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
The 4 falling was a pooey card, - especially when/if your three bet - it probably means your 9's are no longer outs - and your not helping your straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does it mean your nines aren't outs any longer?

Also, assuming he does not pop back at you, do you come out firing when the 4 falls?

gm

[Sarge85]

Edit:I should have clarified, if he three bets you on the CR and then the 4 comes out...that's when your nines are no good.

Think of the types of raising hands out there...

Think of what happens when the board pairs...

Think of how that effects your hand.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
If you CR this flop, and he pots it for a third bet - your going to have odds to chase down a 9 or a T. If a card falls to help you hit your straight you'll have odds to chase that as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, this is a reason not to check raise the flop. Remember, a checkraise is only protecting your hand against one of 4 opponents (UTG+1). As I mention below, this may be a good thing if CO and SB are already gone, but if they're coming along, then the checkraise is only going to tie them to the pot. Also, UTG+1 may have tons outs at thi point, if he's even behind Hero's top-pair weak kicker.

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't pop back at you -(pushing AK. AQ. or 99 etc...) you may well have the best hand and may have protected a very vulnerable top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are you going to bet the turn then? What if UTG+1 and CO are still in the hand?

[ QUOTE ]
The 4 falling was a pooey card, - especially when/if your three bet - it probably means your 9's are no longer outs...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I see that Hero no longer has hopes of a runner-runner straight, but that's the only thing the 4 changes. I'm sure I'm missing something, but how the heck does the 4 falling mean his 9's are no longer outs?

[slogger]

So we basically agree then.

Cheers!

[gaming_mouse]

If he is three-bet, he cannot fold without seeing the turn (he's getting about 18-to-1 to call the 3-bet).

However, I can now safely check-fold the turn.

Also, what happend if LP decides to punish Hero and just calls the flop checkraise, planning to raise a bet on a safe turn card. Now look at the trouble we've gotten Hero into!

That's a good point. But... I can now safely fold the river. So I have spent the same amount as I would have calling down, but I might get overcard to fold when I bet out on the blank turn. Doesn't that make this a better play?

gm

[slogger]

The only time the 9 outs are an issue are on the turn.

No need to figure out whether a 9 woudl improve Hero's hand enough when there are no more cards coming. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[ZZZ]

Sarge,

You are mistaken in thinking the board paired on the turn.

ZZZ

[gaming_mouse]

Think of the types of raising hands out there...

You mean 99? But that's just one possibility he could be raising with (many more overcard combos).

Think of what happens when the board pairs...

9 doesn't the pair board

[Sarge85]

Aye you are correct...

I thought the board had paired on the turn...my bad.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is three-bet, he cannot fold without seeing the turn (he's getting about 18-to-1 to call the 3-bet).

However, I can now safely check-fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't. You've got 5 outs and you're getting better than 10-to-1. If CO folds to the turn bet (which he did), then you know your 9s are good outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, what happend if LP decides to punish Hero and just calls the flop checkraise, planning to raise a bet on a safe turn card. Now look at the trouble we've gotten Hero into!

That's a good point. But... I can now safely fold the river. So I have spent the same amount as I would have calling down, but I might get overcard to fold when I bet out on the blank turn. Doesn't that make this a better play?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are raised on the turn (and call, because of the outs), it may be true that you can safely fold the river, but the fact that overcardswould have folded the turn doesn't make this play better. If he had overcards, then calling hime down would have been best, because you'd win more when you're ahead and lose the same (or less) when behind.

[Sarge85]

Sorry for eff'n up my stellar analysis there....

Your right the board doesn't pair on the turn. If the 4 was a 2 on the turn...then my thoughts are correct ... as it stands now - I'm a dork /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[gaming_mouse]

yep. you're right. nice analysis again.

so basically you're saying i played this right? (EDIT: except for betting out on the flop) It just feels so weak to me... And these situation will come up even when you don't make borderline calls pf.

gm

[gaming_mouse]

it may be true that you can safely fold the river, but the fact that overcardswould have folded the turn doesn't make this play better. If he had overcards, then calling hime down would have been best

Unless.... This makes him fold his overcards even when he has correct odds to call (maybe he thinks I have two pair or a set). Does that affect your analysis?

gm

[Sarge85]

One of the best things I've ever seen GuyOnTilt write, was that you need to put your opponents on a range of hands.

So I ask myself - what are typical raising hands here after one limper, and I'll assume an ABC player.

99-AA
AJs-AKs
AJo-AKo
KQs, KQo

I ran this through Poker Stove. This is what came back. (note- I only ran the probable hands our raising opponent has - it's much tougher to guess what our other players are holding)

Board: 2c 8d Th
equity (%)
Hand 1: 38.6693 % { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 2: 61.3307 % { Td9h }

On the flop - based on the range of hands I at this point can put him on - Hero is a big favorite.

I guess my final point is if I bet, and get a bunch of callers, with overcards or whatever I do nothing to protect my hand - even if it is just one person.

If I check - i can see what happens and make a judgement call when it gets back to me.

The best case scenerio is that LP bets with the above range of hands, and CO, and SB fold - and then I pop it to get rid of UTG+1 (hopefully).

The LP will probably just call with over cards - good or pop back at me with TT-AA

---
If it is three bet back - then it probably looks more like this -

Board: 2c 8d Th

equity (%)
Hand 1: 21.0424 % { Td9h }
Hand 2: 78.9576 % { AA-TT }

So about 4:1 to make a winning hand (math right?) and getting sufficient odds to call that.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
And these situation will come up even when you don't make borderline calls pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

They will come up far less often if you muck mediocre offsuit cards preflop. It's not that you will never win a pot against a pf raiser with a pair of Tens and a 9 kicker, just that it will be rare enough (and cost you enough bets) when you're not good to make any +EV that might exist minimal.

The point: you're giving up very little, if anything, if you never make this preflop call.

[slogger]

That's a big "if." Take the percentage of time he's just pushing overcards.

Then of those few times, estimate the percentage of time that he incorrectly mucks them to one bet on the turn.

I'm not one of the good math guys around here, but my guess is that when you integrate these two percentages, you're looking at something below 5%.

[Malcom Reynolds]

I think the idea is that if there is a bigger error to consistently make, it would be to fold in large pots rather than calling a bet. That's because you give up all the equity for your hand. And even on the river, you have some sort of pseudo bluff equity in these situations.

So I figure the idea is just to have instincts good enough, and ALWAYS look at the pot. On the river there, if you are getting 11 to 1, ask yourself if he is bluffing once every twelve times you are in this situation. If your instincts are good enough, they should tell you if you should call down or not.

Every decision needs to be made in terms of the pot. If for example you were getting 1,000,000 to 1 odds, you'd call with ace high against what you think is a full house, because there is the chance that right before the hand his wife caught him cheating and he just went on tilt and then the cat jumped on the mouse, etc.

And I'm not saying always call down, hardly. But human nature wants us to fold our losing hands, but really we have to always put math behind it too.

[Sarge85]

How many times to you bet with AK after you raise PF, and it's checked to you on the flop when you miss.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[sthief09]

fold preflop

this thread is long and I'm half asleep so maybe it's been said already, but I just wanted to make sure you realized that you should be folding offsuited connectors in the BB most of the time.

[slogger]

Against fewer that 4 opponents, I'd say it's nearly 100% of the time.

Four opponents depends on the flop. If I have other outs (backdoor draws, etc.) and the flop is not scary (789, two-tone), I may fire away 50-60% of time.

More than 4 opponents, unless the flop gives me tons of ways to win, it feels like ignorant chip-spewing (but that doesn't mean I won't fire a barrel to see where everyone stands about 30% of the time /images/graemlins/blush.gif).

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop

this thread is long and I'm half asleep so maybe it's been said already, but I just wanted to make sure you realized that you should be folding offsuited connectors in the BB most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, thief, I knew that when I posted. The call was borderline, probably too loose. But that wasn't what I was interested in.

On a similar note, slogger, my comment to your earlier that you can find yourself in similar situations even when you fold these hands pf was not a defense of my pf call, but just a way of saying that you will run into the dilemmas this example brings up no matter how you play pf. Therefore, suggesting a pf fold doesn't solve the problem. But you and sarge both gave an excellent analysis anyway.

thanks again,
gm

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]

yeah, thief, I knew that when I posted. The call was borderline, probably too loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't borderline. It was bad.

scrub

[pfkaok]

Yeah, I agree that this is a bad PF call, but what if hero had 10 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 's?

he would certainly want to call that PF, then he'd be in the same scenario for the rest of the hand. His main ? was the postflop play, which I think is a very interesting one. Its one of those where you're almost certainly -EV for the rest of the hand, but you don't want to fold either b/c there's a decent pot... I like trying for flop CR, but that might be a leak in my game as well.