reposted: Possible draw?

I reposted in the right section


Holdem 20-40 and up. Three to five players. You have J9h on the BB. Everybody in, buttom raises (aggressive) you call. Flop is Ah 5c 7s, SB checks, what do you do? My inclination is to check and muck if buttom bets, but if there is an 80% chance that he may raise with almost any 2 cards with minimal strength (65,K5s,97, etc).Do you take one off for a possible flash draw or inside straight? What about if there was no ace on the flop, but a Kh or Qh? I think the options are to muck or to come out betting and hope to pick up a draw on the turn. (I am assuming if there are actions from other players on the flop, it is an easy muck?)


thanks


Jaque

I'll stick with the same response I gave you in the other forum /images/smile.gif


HAPPY HOLIDAYS!


Rick "DaVoice" Charles

rick@voiceofpoker.com

"there is an 80% chance that he may raise with almost any 2 cards with minimal strength" and if he now auto bets, no one else is in, and no one is left to act behind you, you should not fold.

Mason: my question was that you were on the BB (for 3 players your answer works) but what do you do with 2 or 3 players behind you? Does it make a difference it there is an Ah on the flop vs Kh or Qh for possible draws?


thanks again


Jaque

Disclaimer: Don't think for a second that I am unaware of the fact that I am about to contradict Mason Malmuth. This gives me good reason, of course, to question my wits, but my wits have never really been inscrutable anyway, so...


This situation is interesting to me because it seems to me that it's not enough to reason that he doesn't have an ace just because it was a very possible position raise. This is especially true because it seems you're saying there are other callers as well, and you really have very little idea of what you're up against with them (although they do bring something to the table, so to speak). I'd think you'd want a bit more here than backdoor flush/backdoor straight draws as justification to call. Your "overcards" (to the 7) are in extreme danger if they come, so how good to you feel with them?


If you've made the decision to call, what do you do with J/9 of hearts if a 9 hits the turn? Every option is bad. Betting is not supremely palatable, although probably correct. Check-calling is clearly wrong, and check-raising in this position would have me feeling I'd overextended myself unnecessarily.


What if you DO manage to pick up either draw? Obviously, you'll want to make your play for the pot right there (or else you'd be call-calling for a runner-runner draw in at best a shorthanded situation) but do the numbers really prop you up?


You'd probably be just about as good if a blank hit the turn and you came out betting.


I'd lament missing the flop and defer to the raiser's position on me, folding.


I don't know all of the equations involved, but it seems to me I'm not too far off-base here.


Please advise.


DT