Running Good (No Content)

[Schneids]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Schneids is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Schneids calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Schneids checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Schneids calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Schneids checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Schneids raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Schneids calls.

River: (9.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Schneids bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Schneids 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Schneids calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Schneids has Ah Js (four of a kind, jacks).
UTG+1 has Ks Kd (full house, kings full of jacks).
Outcome: Schneids wins 17.25 BB. </font>

[jrobb83]

You fish. Any exciting chat after that one went down?

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Any exciting chat after that one went down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Half an hour later another player at the table says, "Papa do you notice any patterns?" I say no. He says "everytime you raise you're getting three-bet by her." I realized it was true. I say "but I've been raising good hands...even for me." He says "like AJ?" I do the /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[kiddo]

A classic 1 outer. I would hate you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MEbenhoe]

your sucking out abilities will always amaze me

[geormiet]

Hey, now I know schneids party id...

[naphand]

No way is this close to 1 out, it is the biggest suck possible in THE; runner-runner only-cards-in-the-pack makes it 1:1,081 on the flop. I've seen this once; pocket 77 vs pocket 55 with a 7 on the flop and no 5, sees run-run 5's for quads. I was at the sharp end of that. Ooof!

[Tosh]

He hardly wants it to be secret though.

[Scotch78]

I count 4 outs on the flop for a nut straight. He doesn't need the fourth jack to win until after the third one hits.

Scott

[naphand]

Ah yes.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

No way is this close to 1 out, it is the biggest suck possible in THE; runner-runner only-cards-in-the-pack makes it 1:1,081 on the flop. I've seen this once; pocket 77 vs pocket 55 with a 7 on the flop and no 5, sees run-run 5's for quads. I was at the sharp end of that. Ooof!


[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be completely pedantic: not only is this not true in this case (because of the straight draw) but even if it were, it's only 989-1. Almost a sure thing!

Guy.

[kiddo]

Actually its hard to find a flop where one player needs to hit a 1 outer twice. Normally there is some kind of runnerrunner straight or flush. But a flopped set against a smaller pair - like your 77 against 55 and flop something like AT7, rainbow - would be one of those.

[nicky g]

On the flop he could also hit runner runner aces to win.

[fnord_too]

I usually raise this in six max pre flop, did you have a read on utg+1, were you mixing up your play, or am I just too aggro with AJo in the blinds? Also, have you been playing in the 15/30 full under about 20 different names?

[naphand]

To catch the only 2 cards in the pack on a runner runner is:

2/47 on the Turn
1/46 on the River

2/47 x 1/46 = 1/1,081

What am I missing here? I only vaguely remember someone putting up a different result when this cropped up months ago, and someone else agreeing with this number.

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
To catch the only 2 cards in the pack on a runner runner is:

2/47 on the Turn
1/46 on the River

2/47 x 1/46 = 1/1,081

What am I missing here? I only vaguely remember someone putting up a different result when this cropped up months ago, and someone else agreeing with this number.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be correct, except that he had 4 additional outs (tens) and another potential runner runner (2 aces) on the flop.

[jrobb83]

I once had a guy go runner runner 1 out on me to split the pot. I forget the exact situation, but the only way he possibly gets any money from the pot is going perfect perfect for a split. Is that worse than him taking down the entire pot? I know you don't loose any money, but I personally was insulted that he got any money when it was impossible for him to take down the entire pot on the flop.

[MAxx]

I don't see how you make so much money when you keep on chasen such horrible odds like this.

[benping16]

One possibilty would be...

K /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif vs 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

flop: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

and then 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[naphand]

This happened in a tourney to me too, I had AQ and the flop was AAQ (4 all-in including me) and the Turn and River went K-K and I split the pot with A7o... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Perhaps I should have been glad no-one had KK... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

To catch the only 2 cards in the pack on a runner runner is:

2/47 on the Turn
1/46 on the River

2/47 x 1/46 = 1/1,081

What am I missing here?


[/ QUOTE ]

989-1 assumes the opponent's hand is known. That's all.

When someone hits one on you, you can't say "Man, that was 1081-1 against", because you knew your hand!

Guy.

[naphand]

Yes, I remembered this was the reason why the number was lower in reality. It does not require that the opponent's hand is known, just that it is safe to assume he does not have a J.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

One possibilty would be...

K Q vs 8 9

flop: A 2 3

and then 4 5


[/ QUOTE ]

A while back someone posted a hand # where this happened on Stars. Perfect-perfect to split, in a no-limit tournament if I remember correctly. They got it all-in on the flop.

Guy.

[benping16]

a Q on the turn or river also would have split the pot unless both of the Q's come

[sweetjazz]

Why don't you raise the flop here? It's a perfect opportunity to semi-bluff here because of the combination
(1) that he lays down his top set because of fear of being behind to the nut straight with only a 30-35% chance of improving to kings full or better; and
(2) that you improve to the best hand by spiking runner-runner (or the 10, but let's not overvalue our gutshot /images/graemlins/wink.gif )

I grant you that the chances of either one specifically happening are longshots, but when you add two longshots together, you get near certainty. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Chizoad]

In a span of 1 month on UB this summer, I lost 3 times after flopping a set and having an underpair catch running quads. JJ vs 22, TT vs 22, and 88 vs 77.

The odds of this happening are at worst (1/1082)^3 which is around a billion to 1, but seeing as sometimes more than one person has the underpair, and I'm sure I flopped tons of sets in a month, the true odds are much much lower than this. Even still, it sucks hard, and is probably akin to winning the lotto in terms of frequency.