QTo steal - turn and river?

[Fiddler]

SB is tight VP$IP 19% and BB has a VP$IP over 50% but he is not very aggressive and can find the fold button.

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

This confused me a bit... what's the play?

River: (6.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds.

Check it through or bet and fold to a raise?

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

[naphand]

This looks like an 8 or a weak Q. He makes 2-pair on the Turn and definitely does not want to let you draw to...ermm...ummm...hmmm...maybe you have 75o. He could just have nothing and tries to scare you into believing he best bottom pair on the flop.

A call is fine here, with a better kicker I would often raise, but you are still in good shape. Bet on the River when checked to. Yup, what's the problem?

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]

A call is fine here, with a better kicker I would often raise, but you are still in good shape. Bet on the River when checked to. Yup, what's the problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a bit of confusion wondering if I missed an "obvious" raise.

[naphand]

Not necessarily. You have no read on this guy. His Turn bet could be another stab with some garbage (which he folds to a raise). He might actually have a 6 (and you get 3-bet and probably feel obliged to call). There are no obvious draws out there you need to push him off, so let him bet again on the River (actually it seems he had nothing at all).

T kicker is borderline here for me, but yes I probably would raise with this some of the time. Against a player I know will SNG with less than great hands then certainly raise, but you will find yourself getting 3-bet an uncomfortable number of times. How many times will he have a T or better kicker? How many times will he have a 6? And some goons will do this with AA or KK. The sum of these needs to be 33% or less versus the times he has an actual hand (bluffs don't figure as you gain nothing by a raise).

Let's be really basic about it, just for simplicity's sake. If he has an 8 jolly good, you gain an extra BB. If has a 6 you lose 2 extra BB. If he has a Q, what Q? Q6, Q8 and QJ+ are all bad for you, losing 2 BB extra; 5 from 13 possibilities and QT splits. Which leaves 6 crappy Q's you beat, or around 50%.

Of course, he is less likely to have a Q as you hold one, and also less likely to have a 6 as there are two of those out. I am a bit tired to sum up the possibilities but he obviously has an 8 more than a Q or 6. But I would say you do run the risk of getting raised here enough times to hurt, but it is probably slightly in your favour to raise. BUT the real question is, what hands does he play SNG with? Most of the time I find this is indeed TP on a draw-free board like this. If he has a hand, it is a somewhat marginal position for you. My prefernce in that case, is to raise with on a read, calls down without. But yes, I think you could raise here and not lose sleep over it. I still like to see his cards as SNG-type players tend to be either tricky or complete goons and it is nice to know which. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[spydog]

With KQ or AQ, I'm raising. With QJ or QT, it's borderline. I think a raise works here against average non-lag opponents, because you can fold to a 3-bet. If he was a lag, then I wouldn't raise, as it could get ugly with an OK hand.

Also, a raise has the added benefit of knocking the BB out, especially if he is holding a K or A.