76o in the BB vs. a loose-passive guy.

[bisonbison]

MP2 is a bit loose and too passive preflop. I don't have a postflop read.
CO is a bit loose and very passive.
SB is a LAG.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

What I guess I want to know is: how close are the decisions to call the turn (as opposed to 3-betting) and to call on the river (as opposed to capping)? One of those extracting/going too far issues.

[sthief09]

I might consider betting the river, since he might not tend to bet with many worse hands. even JT might freeze up and take a free showdown. when he raises the turn, you're pretty screwed. when he raises the river, you're really screwed. why not just fold the turn to the raise? if he's passive, the worst hand he'll raise with is what you have, bottom 2, and if that's the case, you rarely have 4 outs (only against JT).

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
why not just fold the turn to the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? You're looking to fold 2 pair here?

[sthief09]

I thought it said he was a bit to passive postflop, but even if he's average postflop, people who raise against a non-PFR (their raising standards go down against preflop raisers on boards like this because preflop raisers ALWAYS have AK) can beat one pair. in this case, if he beats one pair, the worst hand he can have is 76. the pot isn't big, and he has little to no outs toward improvement. further, his river check-raise doesn't make sense. he plans to check raising, which says (I hope you have JT), but his passive opponent might freeze up at the paired board and check. most of the time that his opponent bets the river, he's beat. since he's too loose and passive preflop, we know he can have any combination here. against the range for his opponent, which is JJ, TT, 66, JT, J7, T7, J6, T6, 76, he's in serious trouble on the turn

[johnnycakes]

Is MP2 loose-passive enough to not raise TT or JJ pre-flop?

It's close between 3-betting the turn and just calling, but I think I'd call. We all know how much loose passive types like their (sooted) connectors. I'm scared of 89 or JT.

It's going to be nearly impossible for me to not cap this river. I think about 85% of the time you're up against 89, 15% of the time you're beat.

[Festus22]

I think the turn is close but fine. A passive player usually isn't raising the turn with only top pair unless it's very good. And in this case, he would have to have A-J or K-J to make the raise both of which he might not have called the flop with. So I would say you are more likely than not behind. But to what? That's the question. JJ, TT, J7, T7 (and is he THAT loose to play J7 or T7?). What are you ahead of on the river that he would play this way? 9-8, J-T, 6-6.

Given the combinations, cap the river.

I say he has 9-8 for a flopped straight.

[bisonbison]

I don't know about his raising standards, just that over 70 hands, he raised 2.5% of the time.

I think you're overestimating the times he'll have 89 here, cause I don't know if someone's who's not superloose will ever have 89o here.

Note, by "a bit loose" I mean a little over 30% of his hands. He's not tight. He's not superloose, he's loose for 3/6.

[ElSapo]

Hey Bison,

I read sthief's response and this kind of clouded my thinking here. If he's a fairly passive player then it probably means your two pair is no good on the turn. I guess I agree with that, and seeing as the pot is smallish you don't have the odds to draw to your 4-outer.

On the river, now that you have your mini-boat, I like the check-raise. I'd like to see 3 bets go into the pot at most, seeing as I want to be ahead of a straight. If I bet and he raises, I don't feel like I can three-bet here because then I must call a cap. Check-raising allows you to limit the bets to 3.

Basically, I play it the same way. I'm not folding my two pair either, but the logic behind it is interesting. But then I've seen a lot of turn semi-bluffing lately, so you have to pay off I think.

[slogger]

Your description of MP2, makes it look like you feared JJ on the river, although TT is a possibilty as well.

I think I would have 3-bet the turn, but the lack of a postflop read makes me worried that he is typically passive postflop as well. Would he have slowplayed flopped straight or set? Would he raise the turn with as little as AJ?

Given your line on the turn, I'd consider capping the river, but it's close.

p.s. - did you get my PM the other day? If you'd rather not discuss, no big deal. Just curious.

[bisonbison]

Slogger, my response rate to PMs has reached an all-time low.

If it involves my fixing the converter, the answer is: I'll get to it sometime. If it involves a question you could ask of the board, my response is: ask the board.

[sthief09]

why put your chips in with the worst hand, possibly drawing dead?

[slogger]

It is a question I could ask the board, but was directed at you because you've commented about this a few times recently.

Essentially, what are you reasons for not wanting to reveal you playing names? Some people think it's a good idea. Others don't. I provided more context in my PM, and if you'd prefer to read that and respond by PM, by all means, take your time. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[sthief09]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, bisonbison checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">bisonbison bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">bisonbison bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SB folds, bisonbison calls.


when your only hope is that a likely passive player plays the hand like this, you're probably screwed

[bisonbison]

Yesterday I was sitting at a table when my right hand opponent dropped a "brown trout". I'm pretty sure he recognized my handle, but I hate responding to that stuff. Then my left hand opponent responded with "it sure does." I unchecked my blind button and left two hands later.

When a poster here is publicly identified as a 2+2er, they lose an edge. That's it. It may be subtle or never really come in to play, but their opponents now have more info about them than visa versa. 2+2ers who remain anonymous retain an information advantage. And that's ignoring the fun of being a well-known poster and getting mobbed.

[sfer]

Is that bisonbison or Fish Daddy?

[sthief09]

for a while Evan played under sthiefO9. apparently way too many people know about this place, because it pissed him off enough to change his name to something stupid

[Evan]

Not sure if you want any responses on this question besides bison, but here's my reasoning. I don't mind sharing my Party name with most people. I chose not to post it because I don't want lurkers to see it and start talking about 2+2 at tables. That's really the only reason. A lot of people on these boards know my Party name and I have no problem with that.

[bisonbison]

he just took the hand and reworked it to give the impression of MP2 with AJo.

[slogger]

Your analysis is better than mine, here. Just calling the turn also leaves me uncertain about what type of hand we're up against. Given that, folding the turn (assuming I have four outs) seems more reasonable. Still, without a postflop read, I wonder whether this is the type of guy who raise the turn with AJ.

I've been trying to focus on staying aggressive in these games, and I'm probably over-compensating and losing more chips than necessary in situations like this.

After bison just calls the turn, though, I'm left to wonder how likely it is that we're facing 89, JT, 66, etc. (hands we're ahead of). Again, if this passive preflop player is willing to raise the turn and then 3-bet a river checkraise, I guess capping is just foolish. But 66 and 89 are still real possibilities.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
it pissed him off enough to change his name to something stupid

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it any stupider than some of your names? Have i even told you what it is yet?

[bisonbison]

oh yeah, and the 2+2 questions, and the converter comments, and the idea that I want 5 TAGs at my table when I'm trying to earn a living.

I like playing with CDC and bakku and company one or two at a time, but people get this idea like it's time for a 2+2 party at a 3/6 table when I'm just trying to get in some hands.

As you can tell, I have a lot of repressed anger.

[johnnycakes]

What's his VP$IP?

Hmmm, raises just 2.5%? Then he probably would limp with TT or JJ (if anything can be accurately inferred given your sample size.) That really worries me. Let's now list possible holdings:
89s (sooted only since we've determined 89o is an unlikely limping hand) (can be made 4 ways preflop)
TT (made 3 ways)
JJ (made 3 ways)
66 (made 1 way)

6 times you're behind. 5 times you're ahead.
Given all this information, I call.

Also, Did his 3-bet on the river come instantly, or did he have anything to think about?

[bisonbison]

Also, Did his 3-bet on the river come instantly, or did he have anything to think about?

I have no idea and I doubt it matters.

[Evan]

I agree. As Josh said, I played unders sthiefO9 for a while and it's amazing how many people recognize the name (and then don't believe me when I tell them I'm Evan and end up PMing Josh).

[sthief09]

I saw it. it was some random combinations of letters and numbers. I'll assume anything you say that attempts to explain it as anything other than a random combination of letters and numbers is a lie

[bisonbison]

I agree.

Would you say you're behind bison, 100%?

[sthief09]

I think J7s and T7s are reasonable for someone who's loose but not too loose. also consider that when you get 3-bet he usually doesn't have just a straight

[Evan]

its actually extremely non-random. I bet if you think about it for like 10 seconds you can figure it out.

(unless this is more sarcasm, then once again I am pretty dumb for a smart kid)

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you say you're behind bison, 100%?

[/ QUOTE ]
HELL YEA

[slogger]

I appreciate the response. And your reasoning makes a lot of sense. I have just been weighing my options between anonnymity (for some of the reasons you mention - incl. general advantage in terms of info) and publicity for the purposes of having other 2+2ers generally try to avoid plauing in too many games with me (and other 2+2ers).

Then again, sthief seems to want my mini-2-pair-turn-3-betting LAG ass is his game. Can't say I blame him. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[sfer]

You should have given Evan a better avatar.

[Evan]

He's still got control of it for 6 days.

[bisonbison]

Wendell, it's okay that you want to see my ass. You and chesspain's wife.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Wendell, it's okay that you want to see my ass. You and chesspain's wife.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's okay. That's why I want it on Evan's avatar.

[Evan]

I'll cry myself to sleep every night for the rest of the week if that happens.

[Evan]

Did you figure out how I came up with that name yet? If not then Columbia's engineering program is in bad shape.

EDIT: I just signed on and realized that my name is not exactly what I thought it was. Those morons at empire messed up one of the characters so I guess it is slightly random now.

[sthief09]

I don't even remember what it is. it doesn't matter because it's random

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is a bit loose and too passive preflop. I don't have a postflop read.

[/ QUOTE ]
Some posters have made way too much out of this minimal read. We have no postflop info at all. Preflop he plays a few too many hands and doesn't raise as much as he should.

Even the passive preflop read is extremely tentative. Bisonbison later said he has 2.5% PFR over 70 hands. That's useful information, but let's be real. That's 2 PFRs in 70 hands. A typical 6% PFR player would raise only 4 times on average. Where is Sample Size Man when we need him?

Anyone know a valid reason why the turn raise couldn't be QJ/J9/J8? I don't. The bottom line on the turn raise is we don't know. That means you have to call.

I would bet the river for fear of a checkthrough. MP2 has shown no great strength and may have been hoping for a free showdown when he raised.

I think the river 3-bet shows the ability to beat trips. You beat 98 and 66 and lose to TT. You also lose to JJ/T7/J7 but these are unlikely hands based on preflop and flop. It's also barely possible he's way out of line with A7.

I think capping the river is worth a shot but it's close. I wouldn't expose myself to a 5-bet if that was legal.

[bisonbison]

Thanks for the response, Stella. As I hope you can tell, Sample Size man was in the back of my head with the aggression stuff, but it's a thin line between "hey, this guy is new to me" and "I can provide no reads whatsoever". All I can say is, he hadn't shown down anything raised/not-raised preflop that made me scratch my head, but at this point he'd probably shown down, what? 4 hands?

And just so everyone understands: if I bet the river, he raises, easy 3-bet, call a cap. next hand.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Even the passive preflop read is extremely tentative. Bisonbison later said he has 2.5% PFR over 70 hands. That's useful information, but let's be real. That's 2 PFRs in 70 hands. A typical 6% PFR player would raise only 4 times on average. Where is Sample Size Man when we need him?

[/ QUOTE ]

way to make me look/feel like an idiot. I guess these numbers we export from PT (aside from VP$IP) really don't tell us all that much. while we're on the topic, do you have any idea how fast AF converges, and do you have any opinion on the reliability of the stat?

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]

And just so everyone understands: if I bet the river, he raises, easy 3-bet, call a cap. next hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why this is such an easy 3-bet against a rational opponent. Obviously, if you got there, you call a cap.

If he only caps on boat hands, only one of which you beat, the check-raise has got to be correct - you putting in the third bet (which you say is easy) means he gets the easy decision on the fourth bet. By check-raising, you get the decision on the last bet.

[StellarWind]

I played about 400 hands last night and had a nice session. My Flop AF for the night was 8.17 based on over a hundred flop decisions. Compare this with a 3.82 average over the last six weeks.

This is an excerpt from a post I wrote a month ago in the Shorthanded forum. It doesn't exactly address your question, but maybe you'll find it interesting:

[ QUOTE ]
In a sense, PT's aggression factor does not measure aggression. In my mind, a player is aggressive if he is willing to bet and raise with relatively weak holdings. PT doesn't do it that way. Consider two loose preflop players A and B who both attack savagely if they have any piece of the flop. Player A has a Flop AF of about 6. Player B has a Flop AF of about 1. What's the difference? Player A checkfolds everything that completely misses the flop. He has very few calls to put in his denominator. Player B checkcalls many of his worthless flops. He checkcalls as many hands as he bets.

[/ QUOTE ]