Omaha-8 question

My line of reasoning here is probably why I'm so bad at Omaha-8, but I was wondering if the turn call and the river call were big mistakes or not.


Online 3-6 game - pretty loose passive, except for one player.


Preflop:

2 or 3 limpers, the small blind completes (he's been very aggressive most hands...too much so, he's pretty stuck at this point). I check with 345T no suits.


Flop:

33Q


SB bets, I raise (good? bad?) 1 MP cold-caller, and the button cold-calls, SB calls. My rationale here was, I want to see if I'm best, although any reasonable 3 has me outkicked.


Turn:

[33Q] 2

SB bets, I call (I wondered about this...not unreasonable that SB could have 32 - but is this low draw + other full house outs enough to stick around?) only the button calls.


River:

[33Q2] T

SB bets, I've got a weak full house, so I decide to go for the overcall in case my hand is no good, but button folds.


Thoughts? Criticisms?


I seem to get in more trouble in the blinds in Omaha...

SB shows 23xx with no low draw and my threes full of tens is good. SB then types "river rat" into chat.


Catching on the end notwithstanding, would a raise be in order on the turn (regardless of whether I thought the SB actually had a full house) because of the low draw AND the fact that my hand may be best (SB could be betting with AA, KK, or AQ) AND to put pressure on the button, thus increasing my chance of winning the pot?

Flop:

33Q

"SB bets, I raise (good? bad?)"


I would raise here. If for no other reason than to make his, and others, hands more readable on the turn and river.


"1 MP cold-caller, and the button cold-calls, SB calls."


I would be wary of the two cold-calls if they are decent players. If one of them comes alive on the turn it's a likely QQ. Especially if the small blind's bet meant he had the other 3. (In this case it didn't have to because he was so aggressive.)


Turn:

[33Q] 2

"SB bets, I call"


This is a tough spot. I would probably call here. I was thinking a raise would be good to force the other two out and make your low draw stronger heads up. But if they stayed on the flop with a low draw then they're not folding a low draw now.


The small blind is unlikely to have QQ or Q3, as he would either have 3-bet the flop or check/raised the turn. If you make a boat with your 4 or 5 it will put a low out. So you're only hoping to see one of the 3 Tens. An A, 4 or 5 would likely give you half the pot, assuming one of the callers isn't lying in the weeds with QQ.


I'd really be interested in others opinions on this turn play.


River:

[33Q2] T

"SB bets...I decide to go for the overcall in case my hand is no good"


I would raise here. I already decided the small blind doesn't have QQ or Q3 (Unless this player is a very unimaginative, tight/passive player). And since the button just called the turn, neither does he.


After you raise the river and get paid off by the small blind, you will hear things like, "Wow! You're lucky he didn't have Queens!". Then another "expert" will chime in, "He didn't even need Queens! Q3 would have been good!" And they will think you suck because you raised without the stonecold nuts. (At least for a little while /images/smile.gif )

Another good reason to raise the flop is to knock out any lows,I normaly play a little higher,and this works.then if a low comes you will proubly get that 1/2 of the pot plus you have position on the SB.Having said this a fold wouldt be bad ether.As it turned out your raise{or mine}did no good.

"I check with 345T no suits."


Yawn - Sure not worth a raise, IMHO. Wouldn't even be worth a call if you had to pay extra. Might as well see the flop from the big blind for free.


"Flop: 33Q

SB bets, I raise (good? bad?)"


The raise is good, I think. At least I would raise with your cards in this situation. You raise here to thin the field, both high and low. SB has represented trip threes or better with the bet, but could be trying to buy one here.


"1 MP cold-caller, and the button cold-calls, SB calls."


Yikes. Two cold callers. And SB calls too. Yikes.


"My rationale here was, I want to see if I'm best, although any reasonable 3 has me outkicked."


Threes don't go well with kings queens and jacks. A three is more likely to be with low cards, 234X, A3XX, A23X, etc. At this point you should be mildly worried about a three with an ace. But your opponent with the three could easily have something like 2345, in which case you have the kicker.


"Turn: [33Q] 2"


Yikes. Now you have to seriously worry about a three with a two. Very, very possible someone playing a three has a two to go with it.


"SB bets, I call (I wondered about this...not unreasonable that SB could have 32 - but is this low draw + other full house outs enough to stick around?) only the button calls."


After your raise, and two cold calls, to make a lead bet, SB almost certainly has threes full of twos or better - most likely threes full of twos exactly. Wonder what Button has....perhaps an overpair with a low draw. Or maybe the hand I put SB on is the hand Button has and vice versa.


Whatever. Between the two of them, surely one of them has the case three and you should expect that SB has a full house for the lead bet on the turn (but probably not with a queen because of the betting on the previous round). You need help and there are 34 cards that do not help you. There are ten cards that would help you here, but surely one of your opponents has the case three.


Therefore you realistically have only nine outs, any four, five, or ten. But if you're going to take a three out of the mix, and put it in an opponent's hand, then you also have to take three other cards out of the mix and put them in an opponents hand, and another of these may be one of your outs as well. Thus the odds are about 31 to 9 or 32 to 8 against you, or roughly almost 4 to 1 against you. But if you make your hand it will be for the whole pot.


Kind of a scary situation because you don't know if one of the betters behind you will raise or not. Assuming no raise, assuming one caller, and assuming the river is one of your outs and you are able to collect at least one extra bet on the river if you hit one of your outs, you're getting nine or so to one implied pot odds for your call, and the hand odds against you are only four to one. You have a very clear call here, IMHO.


"River: [33Q2] T

SB bets, I've got a weak full house, so I decide to go for the overcall in case my hand is no good, but button folds."


SB just called your raise on the flop. With those two cold callers in front, given that SB is over-aggressive, you might expect SB to re-raise with queens full on the flop. I think the re-raise from SB is even more likely with threes full of queens on the flop. But SB didn't re-raise on the flop.


SB didn't fold to your raise on the flop even with the two cold callers, so that it looks like SB had *something*. But SB just called your raise on the flop so that it doesn't look like SB had a full house on the flop. SB could have been slow playing queens full to your raise on the flop, but then wouldn't SB also check after the turn, planning a check-raise on the turn?


Instead SB came out betting on the turn. And 2 is a very logical card for someone to have with a 3. Therefore it looks very much like SB has made a full house on the turn.


Button folded on the river, making it look like Button had the over-pair with a low draw. I'd put SB on a small full house after the turn. That being the case, unless SB also coincidentally has a jack, you have the best hand.


The pot is not in jeopardy. You either have it won or not. On the river, any money you initiate into the pot as a bet or raise only has to do with the liklihood one of your opponents holds a queen and a three or two queens. But the way SB has bet this hand doesn't look like either of these. I'd think that SB is betting a small full house thinking you are stuck calling with trip threes, which SB should put you on.


You're in a tough spot on the river because Button is still in the hand. From the way the betting has gone, Button could have something like A2TT. However, there are many other hands Button could have and since you have a ten yourself, the odds of the Button having A2TT are diminished. Even if Button does have A2TT, I don't think Button can re-raise, because of the possibility of facing quad threes or queens full. Therefore you're only risking one extra bet on the river.


Button still being in the hand made your action on the river more difficult, but you missed a raise on the river. Otherwise, IMHO, you played the hand perfectly.


However, it's easier to figure out what to do when you have all the time you need and the pressure is off. I have tended to make the same type of mistake you did (not raising on the river with a non-nut hand when a raise is indicated) in the heat of battle. Hopefully, this discussion will help me correct a flaw I recognize in my own game.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

im opposite everyone on this hand. since it wasnt raised and the pot is small. guess what. fold on the flop. the sb bet into the field he has to have at least a three. so your hand stinks. also if you do luck out and make a full on 4th street it may be a low full and give a chance for a low to take half of what you sucked out on away. your best hand here is a back door low draw. in straight high omaha i would always ditch the hand so in split it seems more worthy of a toss.

...for all the input, and Buzz for the excellent analysis. With some more thought and practice, maybe eventually I'll stop being so clueless in this game! /images/smile.gif

Ray, the action on this hand suggests that it was a very soft table. Would that change the way you play this hand as opposed to if it was a tough table?

he bet into 4 or 5 people with that flop. it doesnt matter who is sitting down. with a soft table it is even more likely the better has you beat.

Buzz you wrote:

"Therefore you realistically have only nine outs, any four, five, or ten. ... But if you make your hand it will be for the whole pot. "


Only a ten likely gives you the whole pot. A 4 or 5 puts three low cards on board and it seems likely that the Button has an Ace with a low draw if he calls here. So you will only get the whole pot if the 4 or 5 counterfeits the Button's low draw.

"Only a ten likely gives you the whole pot. A 4 or 5 puts three low cards on board and it seems likely that the Button has an Ace with a low draw if he calls here. So you will only get the whole pot if the 4 or 5 counterfeits the Button's low draw."


Chaos - Thanks. I always appreciate your posts. Wonder what I was thinking when I wrote that. Clearly a four or a five puts low on the board.


Ray Zee has already stated that he would throw the hand away on the flop.


In the rest of this post, to correct my error I will consider what to do if Yawn does not throw away his hand on the flop, instead (as happened) raising SB’s bet on the flop and getting two cold callers, in addition to having SB also call.


The low/(split pot) aspect makes things much more complicated, at least for me.


I wrote, in thinking about the situation after the turn, “The odds are about 31 to 9 or 32 to 8 against you.” I wasn’t sure about how to proceed if fairly certain a particular opponent has a particular card. It didn’t seem quite correct to take only that particular card out of the mix without also taking some other cards out of the mix, but which cards to take out? I decided to use a range but then rounded off in favor of the least favorable edge of the range anyway. (Not sure if range is the correct mathematical term here).


Suppose instead of using a range, we just take the three out of the mix and give it to SB for his bet after the flop. If so, we know the location of nine cards after the turn, the Q33(2) on the board, the T543 in Yawn’s hand, and the 3 in SB’s hand. In that case, after the turn, there are 43 unknown cards, of which 9 make a full house for Yawn. The odds are thus 34 to 9 or 3.78 to 1 against Yawn making a full house. I probably should have done that in the first place. Perhaps ironically, since some of the time Yawn figures to scoop but some of the time Yawn figures to split, the 3.78 to 1 odds are useless anyway.


One third of those odds are for the whole pot (any ten) while two thirds of those odds are for half the pot (any four or five). But that doesn't help either.


If we’re going to assume Yawn has a trey on the basis of his betting isn’t it also reasonable to assume Yawn *doesn’t* have a queen on the basis of his betting? Isn’t it reasonable to assume SB has a full house with threes over twos after the turn, considering the betting?


If so, after the turn there are 9 cards that help Yawn and 34 cards that don’t. After SB leads with a bet on the third betting round, there are 15 small bets in the pot. Yawn has to be mildly concerned that one of the cold callers has a full house with queens over treys, slow played the top full house on the second betting round, and will raise on this (the third) betting round. Yawn also has to be concerned that one of the two cold callers behind him will (seemingly idiotically) raise with a wrap around low draw or A4 plus a pair, in which case Yawn won’t know if the raiser has queens full or not.


I can clearly see Ray Zee’s logic in wanting to stay clear of this mess. Yawn is definitely out of position on the turn with those two cold callers behind him after SB bets the turn.


Scenario 1: If Yawn bites the bullet and calls SB’s bet after the turn, and if one of the cold callers raises and SB re-raises, I don’t see how Yawn can call the double bet. In this case Yawn loses one big bet on the turn and concedes the hand. I don’t know how to estimate how often this will happen. In games with cagey, aggressive players it’s not uncommon.


Scenario 2: If Yawn bites the bullet and calls SB’s bet after the turn, and if one of the cold callers raises and SB just calls, Yawn has to call the single bet and also call on the river with a made full house. In this case Yawn may lose three big bets or may win all or part of a huge pot - hard to say which. I think scenario number 2 is less likely than scenario number 1.


Scenario 3: If Yawn bites the bullet and calls SB’s bet after the turn, and if one of the original cold callers also calls, then, putting SB on threes full of twos, Yawn will either probably scoop if he catches a ten on the river, probably split with low if he catches a four or a five on the river, or fold to anything else on the river. In this case, Yawn will lose two small bets (= one big bet) by calling on the turn when not making a full house, will probably win 19 small bets when he makes tens full, will probably win at least 9 small bets when he makes fours or fives full (and splits the pot). There also is a chance (about ten to one against) to catch an ace on the river and make the nut low wheel, probably for half the pot (8 small bets). I think scenario number 3 is the most likely scenario, in which case,

+3*19 win make full house and scoop

+6*9 win make full house and split

+4*8 win make wheel and split

-30*2 lose miss full house and wheel

Putting it all together, e.v. = (57+54+32-60)/43 = +1.93 s.b. for calling on the turn.


After going through this, Ray’s case for simply folding to SB’s bet on the flop, even with trip treys, makes perfect sense to me. If you calculate your chances of winning after the flop based on the next two cards to come, when you miss on the turn, you’re in a bad position for the third betting round with one active player in front of you and two behind you. Very scary.


However, having raised on the flop and then gotten the ensuing action, biting the bullet and calling SB’s turn bet makes sense to me.


Sorry about my error in my previous post. Hope my reasoning here makes up for it.


Buzz

In Scenario 2 I would throw away Yawn's hand facing even just the single raise by the Button. If the Button raises the SB's bet with a board of Q332 what possible hand could he have. Since the 3's are accounted for the Button must be raising on Queens full and Yawn would be left drawing to his weak 3rd nut low. The Button wouldn't raise on a low draw even with backup (e.g. A245) for fear of a reraise by the SB which might drive out Yawn.


I agree that Scenario 3 is the most likely and after having raised on the flop would probably also bite the bullet and call the turn bet hoping for a kind river.


I agree with Ray and would muck this hand on the flop. It seams like I've lost a ton of money with low trips and low straights on the flop. You get tied to a hand which may be best at the moment but that has only a small chance of being best at the river and usually only potential for half the pot at that. My current philosophy is to get away from these hands before I invest too much money in the pot.