NL O/8 Tourney question

I posted this in the tournament area, but have gotten better replys in this section.


Played in my first NL O/8 last night. I made several mistakes - quite a learning experience and I'm looking forward to more of these.


My question: 25 players left (out of 55) in tourney that pays 9 places - about $2,800 1st place. Blinds are 1K-2K. I'm bb with 4K (below average stack at my table) left after posting. I have JT98 and check after 5 players call. Flop comes AJ7 rainbow. Checked to UTG who bets 5K and gets 3 callers to me. I hear a voice that reminds me of a post I saw on 2+2 "NL is not a drawing game" but I call anyway. I figured with 9 outs for the straight (although the T wouldn't be the nuts) plus the possibility of another J, I was getting pot odds for my straight draw, I also considered that if I fold, I am down to only 3K after posting my sb while if I hit my straight, I am in decent shape to make the final table.

Is this a fold or a call, all in?


Thanks for your comments.

“My question: Is this a fold or a call, all in?”


iblucky4u2 - When you go all-in in a tournament, clearly you like to be in a position to be able to force the *other* guy to call or fold. When you call “all-in,” rather than bet or raise “all-in” you’re usually between a rock and a hard place, and that’s how it seems here.


The reasoning is complicated, because you should actually win more split pots than scoops, roughly in a 3 to 2 ratio, I think, but calling “all-in,” because of the number of active opponents, does, in my estimation, have a +e.v.


If you scoop, you’ll be in good shape with 32000TC. Even if you only split, you’ll have 15000TC and be able to survive a dry spell.


The problem is, you’ll only survive about one third of the time. The other two thirds of the time - something like that, you’ll be knocked out of the tournament. I looked at the 990 turn/river two card combinations to estimate your chances of success, rather than figuring on the basis of outs.


You might wait for a hand where you have a better chance of survival, but it is unlikely, IMHO, you will win as many chips as you will win here if you do survive. Therefore you will be forced to go “all-in” again, and soon. Going all-in once with a one third chance of survival is better than going in twice, each time with a one half chance of survival. (In the latter case you only have a one fourth chance of survival).


Therefore, I think you made an astute decision to go all-in here, even though the odds of your losing here are (IMHO) about two to one.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

Buzz - thanks for the input - the size of the pot overode my "NL is not a drawing game" perpective. I did feel that with the size of the blinds vs. other stack sizes that if I hit, I would cruise to the final table and the $. I had no illusions that I could scoop - it would require a 9 and another high card with noone having the higher straight, or J - x(x being my high full house). I guess that pot odds rule over rules.