AKo: probably the hardest geometry problem in the world [Archive]

View Full Version : AKo: probably the hardest geometry problem in the world

mantasm

11-10-2004, 05:42 AM

The primary villain is 40/12 preflop, lag postflop but slows down if he thinks he's behind.

I'd like to hear comments on all streets, I think there were close decisions on each.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

gaming_mouse

11-10-2004, 06:07 AM

The Turn 3 bet narrow him down to:

66 - 3 hands
99 - 3 hands
T9 - 6 hands
AT - 4 hands
A9 - 6 hands

You are behind on 16 hands and ahead on 6. I would just call.

gm

Richard Berg

11-10-2004, 06:07 AM

At first glance: I like it. Turn looks like he made two pair, river looks like he may be counterfeited. If he has a monster then that's life.

After some thought: I still think it may be correct but am less convinced it's a standard or obviously +EV play. There are twice as many A9/A6 possibilities as T9, but raising also loses 2BB when behind vs. winning 1BB when ahead, so the initial math is a wash. If you're left with 2nd-order factors, that means you have to weigh:
- how often does he raise the turn with less than aces up?
- does he play 96s [from a raised blind] more or less often than he plays random T hands?
- does he deserve any credit for a set or flopped straight? (even LAGs get lucky)

mantasm

11-10-2004, 04:56 PM

Any more comments? Would anyone fold this flop or just call the turn?

jordanx

11-10-2004, 05:13 PM

Flop call is ok. You have no reason to assume your overcard outs are no good. Raising won't protect your hand here because you are closing the action in a large multiway pot.

When you get 3-bet on the turn it's very likely you are behind, but the pot is too large to fold, so just call him down.

River card likely didn't help you, although it could have, but it's certainly not worth raising.

SB is LAG, so he could have 69, 9x, 6x, Ax or marginal hands you are ahead of just as easy as Tx, T9, T6. You should just call him down.

zimmer879

11-10-2004, 05:22 PM

I don't understand the river raise. You're most likely behind, and if you are, you're gonna get 3 bet.

mantasm

11-10-2004, 05:41 PM

The turn 3-bet made me pretty sure he made 2-pair, and I was pretty sure he was counterfeited on the river. I would expect a check raise with top pair and maybe some sort of slowplay with something stronger on the flop. I have to admit I completely overlooked straight possibilities though.

Aces McGee

11-10-2004, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The Turn 3 bet narrow him down to:

66 - 3 hands
99 - 3 hands
T9 - 6 hands
AT - 4 hands
A9 - 6 hands

You are behind on 16 hands and ahead on 6. I would just call.

gm

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not A6 or 87?

-McGee

MoreWineII

11-10-2004, 06:15 PM

I don't like the river raise. When villian 3-bets you on the turn, I think two pair becomes less likely and set/straight becomes more likely.

J.R.

11-10-2004, 06:18 PM

Would A6 bet the flop? Sure soembody could bet it, but would they? I agree about 87.

Aces McGee

11-10-2004, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would A6 bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if A9 would bet it, A6 would. There isn't much of a difference in a raised pot with a ten-high flop.

-McGee