flop call

[sublime]

i have been running bad lately and as a result have been playing at a substandard level. what do you guys think of this flop call?

15/30 online

game is loose and on the aggressive side. not crazy aggressive, but not passive for sure.

9 handed
2 folds to EMP open raises (not a good player, but i dont seek him out either) he gets 1 caller in MP(typical player i suppose) SB folds and i call in the BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

6.5 SB's
flop is rainbow T75 (one diamond)

I check, MP bets, LP folds, I call

i no like, how bad though?

[Joe Tall]

You are closing the action gettign 7:1, it's a little thin but fine and you fold the turn unimproved, ok then.

Peace,
Joe

[sublime]

Q /images/graemlins/club.gif falls

I check, villian bets, I raise, villian 3-bets /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Clarkmeister]

Flop call is fine.

I don't particularly like your turn checkraise though. What are you trying to accomplish? Get one extra bet that you might have gotten anyways in case he has specifically AK or AJ?

[sublime]

i think the reason i wasn't thrilled with my flop call is cuz i got nailed with a 3-bet on the the turn (yeah results based, but thats how i think when the deck is cold)

so you prefer check/call i presume, lead the river if its non A/K.

what about this quandry i have got myself into now?

[Festus22]

Since some heavyweights have already chimed in, lord knows what I can offer. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But I'll give it a shot. Both backdoor draws obviously involve calling a likely turn bet. Once MP bets the flop, there's 3.5 BB's in the pot. You're going to pay 1.5 BB's from this point to see the river so you're getting 3.3:1 on your backdoor draws. And what are they, something like 16:1 combined to hit? Bleh. I know you'll fold the turn if you don't improve and that will be the majority of the time but still. So the backdoor draw aspect ain't adding much.

Now the overcard outs. Much tougher question in terms of how to value them. MP just cold called a raise so that normally says no big pair. What's left? Smaller pairs, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ maybe? Looking at that those possibilities, you're dominated by many of them and villian may also have a set if he came in with a small pair.

Add all this up and I would say fold the flop. The pot's just not big enough and your combined backdoor and overcard drawing chances just don't appear EV viable.

[sublime]

festus, i think i typed the action a little messed up. the PFR bet the flop and the CC folded. hence i am closing the action

[private joker]

I would have folded the flop too. Backdoor draws add minor equity, but I'd think your overcard outs are dirty enough that 6 of them become 3 or 4 of them -- in addition, any overcard you hit that doesn't hit the PFR is likely to give him a gutshot redraw. There are too many ways to lose this hand, so a very thin flop call becomes marginally unprofitable in my opinion.

[Festus22]

Ho Chi Momma - I didn't see this part!

I would have to say eject here. You made the power move on a big street and he scoffed. Without a read, I just don't see you're hand being good. Man, this is close though. Calling down from here is 5:1 plus you have a redraw though it could be tainted if you're dominated or he has a set. At what point do you just stop throwing good money after bad? I'll be very interested in other's opinions.

Very good post involving more than 1 street. That's tough to do!

[Festus22]

Doh!

Bag what I said previously. This actually makes a stronger case for you're overcards since AK is more likely in play although the same domination concerns are there. I'd have to bet this is just about neutral EV on calling or folding.

[SCfuji]

[ QUOTE ]
not a good player,

[/ QUOTE ]

bad players are allowed to have good hands. fold the 3-bet turn (i actually have been praticing this a couple times and when other guys called down i got to see that i was beat. very very cool laydown thanks to 2+2 comments).

[sublime]

i can see why i should not have c/r (thanks clark) and after reading some of tommys post, check/calling and then seeing what the river holds would have been much better.