Any 2-suited in SB hits a flush - now what? [Archive]

View Full Version : Any 2-suited in SB hits a flush - now what?

maryfield48

11-10-2004, 03:25 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
3 folds, MP2 (LP-A) calls, 2 folds, Button (LA-P) calls, Hero completes, BB raises, MP2 (LP-A) calls, Button (LA-P) calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, LP-A calls, LA-P 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls, LP-A calls.

Turn: (10 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, LP-A bets, LA-P calls, Hero raises, BB folds, LP-A 3-bets, LA-P calls, Hero calls.

River: (19 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, LP-A bets, LA-P raises, Hero calls, LP-A 3-bets, LA-P calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

mmbt0ne

11-10-2004, 03:31 AM

You have to cap the turn and the river. A LA-P isn't 3-betting a flush draw on the flop. BB raised preflop, so the only possible hand I put him on that beats you is KQs, and you might see that once every blue moon. Once he folds you are good to go.
You're gonna be good in this situation at least 90% of the time I think, and need to pump that flush for every cent you can. If the board pairs on the river I might be a little wary of a full house, but until then, get your money!

Greg J

11-10-2004, 03:34 AM

Go nuts. Cap every street -- including the flop!

mmbt0ne

11-10-2004, 03:47 AM

Yeah, I completely whiffed on that one. Any time you have a four-flush and at least 2 callers, go crazy. Cap that flop.

maryfield48

11-10-2004, 09:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I completely whiffed on that one. Any time you have a four-flush and at least 2 callers, go crazy. Cap that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

jrz1972

11-10-2004, 09:46 AM

Cap the flop. Cap the turn. Cap the river.

easypete

11-10-2004, 10:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're gonna be good in this situation at least 90% of the time I think

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the loose players will play any two suited:

There are 8 spades left in the deck. One of your opponents have to have at least the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif or Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif to beat you.

Kx/images/graemlins/spade.gif : 7 combinations
Qx/images/graemlins/spade.gif : 6 combinations

A total of 13 combinations can beat you (and most of which a LA or LP will play them).

13/C(45,2) = 0.013

P(not) = 0.987

with 2 opponents:

P(not)^2 = 97.4% chance you're good.

BTW.... cap the flop, cap the turn, cap the river. I think you're most likely against a lesser flush and a set.

davelin

11-10-2004, 10:31 AM

Check-raise the flop, you don't want BB's raise to possibly shut out the other two players.

CWsports

11-10-2004, 10:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raise the flop, you don't want BB's raise to possibly shut out the other two players.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking as well.

maryfield48

11-11-2004, 08:54 AM

No-one directly addressed this question:

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

[/ QUOTE ]

k000k

11-11-2004, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No-one directly addressed this question:

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be aware of the possibility, but I still put the $ in. I almost never worry about flush over flush. When the flush hits, it's 8:1 that someone else also has a flush. If they do, you have over 1/2 of them beat, so consider it's about 18:1 that there's a higher flush out there... Sure, there's a few flushes out there that beat you, but there's more hands out there that come alive on that turn that you have beat. AJ, JT, KQ.. JJ could even be calling your raise and not 3betting PF, since he's passive PF. LP-A, well he's loose so he could have anything..

kenberman

11-11-2004, 09:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No-one directly addressed this question:

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll address it!

it looks to me like you played this fine, and in fact you have few choices to make.

Pre-flop: completing/calling is an easy decision.
Flop: you can either lead out or hope for a c/r, but this works out just fine for you.
Turn: your flush hits, with both the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif and A /images/graemlins/spade.gif accounted for. I think you have to raise. unfortunately, a 3 bet behind you may mean you are behind.
River: With this pot, you need to call down.

Ken

easypete

11-11-2004, 09:47 AM

crockett

11-11-2004, 11:30 AM

Flop: I C/R
Turn: Cap
River: Bet...Cold call the 3-bet.
Capping the river isn't the end of the world, it's only one more bet and you might still be good.

All those odds and numbers that people posted are pretty and nice looking but my Poker experience says your good about 50/50 of the time, probably even less.

There are people who play poorly in Poker but they are not frickin' retarted. LP-A really really likes his hand and I'm sure he can count to 3. Plus LA-P is still calling and most likely has a flush.

Hopefully the LAG rammed a set down everyones throat and the fish has a smaller flush.

maryfield48

11-11-2004, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No-one directly addressed this question:

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that's what I was addressing. You are in good shape. Look at the stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

The stats don't take into account the betting on this hand. Would all the flushes that I'm beating bet this way? That's really the question, I guess. Would 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif bet the way villain did from the turn on? On the other hand, would that hand call the PFR?

Obviously you are saying yes (to the first question).

On thinking about it, I probably agree. It's a no-brainer that I should cap the flop (what does that say about me?). If I cap the turn, I'm gonna cap the river (if given the opportunity), because if I was good at the turn this river hasn't changed anything.

Yeah on reflection, a lot of players at this level will bet this way with all those small flushes.

Shoulda capped the turn & river.

maryfield48

11-11-2004, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: I C/R
Turn: Cap
River: Bet...Cold call the 3-bet.
Capping the river isn't the end of the world, it's only one more bet and you might still be good.

All those odds and numbers that people posted are pretty and nice looking but my Poker experience says your good about 50/50 of the time, probably even less.

There are people who play poorly in Poker but they are not frickin' retarted. LP-A really really likes his hand and I'm sure he can count to 3. Plus LA-P is still calling and most likely has a flush.

Hopefully the LAG rammed a set down everyones throat and the fish has a smaller flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty close:

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts 6s (flush, ace high).
MP2 has 9s 8s (flush, ace high).
Button has Ad 6d (two pair, aces and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 28 BB.

--
Peter

beginner

11-11-2004, 02:13 PM

Often agressive players will try to take the pot down by playing agressively when a scare card hits. The bet/raise/3-bet on the flop does not indicate a flush draw by any of the raisers, and after two of them checked the turn when they saw a third spade, the LP-A player probably thinks his bluff could work. If he actually does have a flush, it can be lower than yours. I say keep betting!