Big action on river.

[ALL1N]

10/20 Party.

MP and CO limp, I raise QQ in SB, BB and limpers call.

Flop 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet all 3 call.
Turn 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet all 3 call.
River J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet, BB raises, MP folds, CO 3-bets, and I ??

[Scotch78]

. . . thought 3 people were on the flush draw. Unless all three callers are fishier than rotten tuna with WSD rates around 70%, there's no way you are ahead on this river. I check-fold this one. Don't let their earlier passivity fool you, this board screams "slowplay".

Scott

[Rakkad]

I don't think you can say there is no way he is ahead, I'm calling this river, if someone has a 7, good for them, but I wouldn't be surprised to be shown some jacks that think they're boats are good enough.

[Scotch78]

oops!! I thought he had AQ. Time to get my eyes checked. So, yes, I think you're up against an 8 and a J often enough to call this one.

Scott

[Jeff W]

I assume you will at least call the 3-bet and that BB will call a cap. If this is the case, your choice is between 3-betting and capping. To cap, you need to have an equity of 1/3 because 2 times out of three you will lose 1 bet for an EV of -2 BB and 1 time out of three you will win 2 bets for an EV of +2 BB. Total EV=0. I definitely think you're ahead here more than 1/3 of the time in the laggy 10/20 game unless you have a read to the contrary.

[Scotch78]

Once again I'm dumbfounded by your mathematical prowess. At least last time you were correct though.

Scott

[Jeff W]

I do not understand your rudeness. It may be that I am incorrect in my mathematics. Would you please elaborate so that I may be enlightened and thusly refrain from spreading ignorance?

Thank you for your time.

[Ulysses]

Cap.

[stripsqueez]

i'm a tad torn

when you bet the river a sane player must surely be plenty scared of an overpair

if as usual these players arent terribly sane then i love the idea they are going to call a cap with just a J

of-course its not just the 7 you need to worry about and it looks a bit consistent with 88 or JJ - i call - perhaps the BB will fold his J to a cap anyway

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[DeezNutz3]

Cap

[ALL1N]

I capped, as it doesn't matter whether BB has a 7 or not, and if the CO is aloof enough to not raise quads on the turn from his position then he's going to 3-bet the river with a worse boat a lot too.

Also to stripsqueeze, I don't think BB folding a boat would really be an issue here. If he's going to raise against an obvious overpair instead of go for overcalls, I think he's calling the cap close to 100%.

Results:
BB had K7
CO had K8

[ALL1N]

An interesting thing about the river scenario is that it could be correct to cap here knowing I'm ahead less than 20% (a bit extreme, but you get the idea).

[stripsqueez]

i'm interested in how you get 20%

its a good hand - to me it highlights the tyranny of playing with chooks - 3 betting with K8 is like donating money

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Peter_rus]

I wouldn't cap river here. I tend to believe river moves of LAG's and poor players much more then their move on other streets.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm interested in how you get 20%

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that after the CO's 3-bet, I think that the BB is winning 75%, me 20%, and the CO 5%. In this situation, I'm losing 4 river bets 75% of the time regardless of call/cap, but of the remaining 25% when BB doesn't win, I'm winning 4 times in 5, and thus, want it capped.

If I'm winning better than one third of the times BB doesn't win, then capping > calling, unless of course folding > capping, which is where I got the 20% (19-3 approx 14% actually).