I wear a skirt for disguise

[naphand]

This was a wierd play by me, but there were reasons. The interesting bit is the River.

The table has become 3-handed briefly. On my right is a fishy passive player (V$IP 67% PFR 7%), to my left a tight passive player (V$IP 22% PFR 5%).


Cryptologic 2/4 Hold'em (6 max, 3 handed)

Preflop: Naphand is SB with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Button (Fishy) raises, Naphand calls, BB folds.

Flop: (5.0 SB) 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Naphand checks, Fishy bets, Naphand calls.

Turn: (3.5 BB) 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Naphand checks, Fishy checks.

River: (3.5 BB) 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Naphand checks, Button bets, Naphand calls.

Why no raise PF? Fishy does not raise many. Could he be stealing? A passive fish stealing /images/graemlins/confused.gif. Tighty to my left will fold to a raise, so a 3-bet is probably not necessary. I was genuinely interested in this raise and could not decide if he really was stealing or (more likely) had a big hand. I think a re-raise is almost certainly correct here, but in the back of my mind was the idea that a player who raises very rarely needs to be given more respect. I'm not sure a 3-bet tells me much here, as this player will clam up with hands like AT, AJ etc. and I am left betting my dominated A through.

I flop a big draw. I check/call. Why no raise? This is a good spot for a free card play, except I am SB and first to act and a raise followed by a conspicuous Turn check is not going to earn many free cards. The board has probably missed Fishy, his bet is a big hand or overcards and I have a big draw. I have raised and CR in the spot 3 times against fishy recently, with a draw or 2nd-pair against a draw. He knows I will raise "light" here, although there is no need to clear the field as there is no field. Should I raise this again?

Turn brings me additional outs in the form of a gutshot straight. I am now beginning to think I should CR this and try to win it outright, I might have as many as 19 outs (the A outs could be dodgy) plus the possibility of winning it here or for one more on the River, this looks a good CR. Anyone agree? He checks behind!

River. OK I miss my draws and my CR. He bets out. His play to this point makes me believe he has either a good K (KQ or KJ) or an A. The question is, has he cognised the possibility of stealing with any Ace, or am I calling a better A? I think this is a close, close call.

What should I do? Results later.

[Dov]

I think fishy has you beat here more often than the 4-1 you're getting from the pot. Since you played it so poorly, I think you need to fold. I think fishy shows you an A with small pair.

Since he's got VPIP of 67, he could have anything. Since he did raise, he probably has either a PP or a better A than yours. If he's being fishy, though, he could even have a suited A like you do, but he paired his kicker.

I think I would have raised somewhere to get more information on his true strength. If you get 3 bet by the passive fish you can fold.

Dov

[Peter_rus]

I would muck it PF against player who has known 7% PFR in SH-games. If i wouldn't muck it i would call it hoping BB to come along to see a flop. Raising here to take BB out isn't too good i believe cause you have very probably worse hand out of position and any pocket pair regardless of flop will call you down till river exactly as well as any good ace.

BB call make this hand playing easier on flop - c/r or fold as well as giving your hand slightly +ev cause of usually weaker hand of BB. This is so until button is able to raise on a button KQo and 66. But given his PFR he raising very few hands.

[naphand]

If he shows me A with small pair then I want to see it, as it means he was trying to steal PF (ignoring the semantics of what constitutes a "steal"). It is the 3-handedness that makes this situation much more interesting IMO, and a call here gets me some valuable info about his play when it gets very short. Just as I would call down more often early in a HU encounter to get a handle on someone.

I don't know why, but the situation (being 3-handed) and Fishy raising OTB to "steal" seemed so out of character that it piqued my interest. I don't think he folds to a flop CR, that is not fish-style and there is no way he folds any pair either. The flush draw adds a lot of equity to my hand here, even if I am just calling to suss him out. The Turn was the critical point IMO, his check behind says a lot. A Turn CR is far more likely to win here than on the flop (for the historical reasons I gave), plus I gained even more outs.

My "read" was that the Button raise was suspicious, even though he rarely raised. I think A8s is good enough to play here and after the Turn check I think I am better than 4:1.

I am interested why you think calling is actually a better play if BB calls.

A8s HU wins 62.1%, 3-way wins 43.7%.

I can 3-bet and get HU for 7 SB, call and BB calls for a 3-way 6 SB pot, or call and BB folds for HU in a 5 SB pot. My equity for each is (?)

(0.621 x 4.5 SB) - (0.379 x 2.5 SB) = +1.089
(0.437 x 4.5 SB) - (0.563 x 1.5 SB) = +1.122
(0.621 x 3.5 SB) - (0.379 x 1.5 SB) = +1.605

Which seems to indicate calling is the best option, especially if BB folds. Of course this does not factor into account what Button is raising with. Perhaps someone can confirm if my calculations are OK.

[naphand]

Raising the Turn and folding to a 3-bet would be a big mistake, with so many outs. I don't think I can raise the River. Raising PF is the least EV of the options I have (see other post). We are left with raising the flop, but folding to a 3-bet would surely be wrong with such a big draw, I can easily call his 3-bet with my flush outs alone.

[chezlaw]

I would play this a lot more aggressively. I take it that the 7% PFR is from normal 5/6 player games, which is passive but not all that passive - I would still reckon a fair range of hands open-raising from the button.

I like the flop. Assuming I hadn't 3-bet pre-flop then I check-raise the flop and lead the turn. Some chance I'm ahead, if not then loads of outs and he might fold a better ace.


chez

[stripsqueez]

either you think your in front of the button pre-flop or you dont - with such a tiny PFR% i'm with peter in thinking that the button is serious and that says fold pre-flop

3 handed the button should of-course be plenty aggro and certainly raise more hands than his stats suggest but the question is does he know that ?

i wont argue with suspicion - maybe you reasonably thought he did know it was time to loosen up a little and steal - but if thats right thereby making your pre-flop choices ok (as usual i think the SB after a pre-flop raise is 3 bet or fold territory - but thats a secondary issue) you should follow through and play him for something he will throw away post flop (assuming he does fold) - stick with the plan

i call the river - chooks love the desperation bluff

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Peter_rus]

Supposing of BTN range of hands: A8s,ATo,KTs,KQo,QJs,77 (11.1% of hands)
you have 38.1% of equity. If BB comes along with _random_ hand than you will have 29.7% against 2.

(0.381 x 4.5 SB) - (0.619 x 2.5 SB) = +0.167 SB
(0.297 x 4.5 SB) - (0.703 x 1.5 SB) = +0.282 SB
(0.381 x 3.5 SB) - (0.619 x 1.5 SB) = +0.405 SB

Lets make smaller range of racing hands
ATs,AJo,KQs,88 (6.4%)

You have 32.0% of equity HU and 26.2% of equity 3-way.

(0.32 x 4.5 SB) - (0.68 x 2.5 SB) = -0.26 SB
(0.262 x 4.5 SB) - (0.738 x 1.5 SB) = +0.072 SB
(0.32 x 3.5 SB) - (0.68 x 1.5 SB) = +0.1 SB

3-betting become a crime and yes calling and BB fold is preferrable.

It's interesting. Lets change a bit situation and say we have AA on SB against first set of cards.
We have 84.9% equity HU and 72.6% 3-way

(0.849 x 4.5 SB) - (0.151 x 2.5 SB) = +3.43 SB
(0.262 x 4.5 SB) - (0.738 x 1.5 SB) = +2.856 SB
(0.849 x 3.5 SB) - (0.151 x 1.5 SB) = +2.745 SB

With AKs 3-betting is still better (counted).

Not 3-betting with strong hand become a crime. So the basic rule is if you feel you're ahead you must 3-bet. But if you think you're behind and _not too far_ you must call.

Actually i'm still vote for folding in your situation (until you have very good *suspicion* /images/graemlins/smile.gif) cause your worst position will punish i think your margin profit PF. Nate once said that bad position usually cost you around 0.5SB in a long term. I don't know how to theoretically get such numbers but i tend to believe that they are near true as my own experience shows SB profit of AKo of 0.55 and Button AKo of 1.02.

P.S. Also not that you're mistaken and assuming your hand is good and
[ QUOTE ]
(0.621 x 4.5 SB) - (0.379 x 2.5 SB) = +1.089

[/ QUOTE ]

(0.621 x 4.5 SB) - (0.379 x 2.5 SB) = +1.847

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
(0.262 x 4.5 SB) - (0.738 x 1.5 SB) = +2.856 SB


[/ QUOTE ]

Must read (0.726 x 4.5 SB) - (0.274 x 1.5 SB) = +2.856 SB

[naphand]

I find myself agreeing with Peter, and his analysis. I felt I could be behind but "not by much" if I was, as Peter says. Probably muck anything less than A8s, but as I was thinking this I started to feel the hand has just enough to stay in, but not good enough to raise (due to his previous low PFR%). It felt odd at the time.

The flop is good, and I agree with chez that CR looks the obvious best line here. The trouble is, I actually felt that once Fishy had raised PF he probably would want to see a showdown, even with just A high. While the player to my left would fold to aggression, I felt the chances were more likely of Fishy calling this down, and me spewing chips in the process. I suspect with less of a draw, I would have pushed it on the flop, and folded to any playback. I don't think folding to playback is an option post-flop, as when a 3-bet goes in I will have odds to call down for my draw (which makes the play all the more correct, I suppose). By the Turn I begin to feel I need to step on the gas, and have by now a bundle of outs to justify some raising (this really was the plan, and I suspect this hand would look a lot better if I had gotten to do this). But he reverts to type and checks behind. Once that happens, calling the River becomes a lot easier (as strip says, they love the desperation bluff), as it is certain he does not have much of anything. I did think for a bit though.


Fishy turns over A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif and MHIG /images/graemlins/laugh.gif


I'm trying not to be results oriented.... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I guess what I like about this hand was the fact that I was enjoying really thinking about it on each street and, regardless of the correctness or not, it means my gameplay has moved on to adjusting my play for each player rather than auto-piloting against assumed-morons. I caught myself doing this (the thinking bit) the day before and really tore up the game, which was nice.

[naphand]

Great stuff, once again Peter. I love to see mathematical interpretation which can sometimes (surprisingly) support an alternative line. I cannot claim to have been crunching the numbers at the time though... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[PokerNoob]

What about betting the river to get him to lay down a better Ace?

[naphand]

I think it is unlikely he will do that, and he always folds a worse hand. It is more likely he will bluff bet because I have shown no aggression. Also, I now definitely want to see his hand and as I would have to fold to a CR, and he probably folds when beat, check/call it is.

Having thought on it a bit, I think the flop is the only realistic place to make a move. Pre-flop is debateable clearly but, I still prefer call. A flop CR is essential without the draw, but even with the draw obviously if I get 3-bet I have plenty of outs to play on, plus he folds out a lot too. On the Turn (as a passive player) he checks behind with nothing (in fact he picked up an OESD), he will much more likely only bet the Turn with a made hand. So a Turn CR is staring spewfest in the face. Against this type of player, with the PF raise, I am happy to call into the hand, but the more I think about the flop the more I realise I should have CR there (betting is even preferable to check/call). I don't like the Turn CR plan at all now. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[runa]

The turn CR is a nice semi-bluff if your opponent is capable of folding in this spot. However, someone this loose is more likely to call you down. Psychologically a CR can have the opposite intended affect and get them to call down out of curiousity or stubbornness, so I'm not sure that would be effective here. You might end up just CR'ing, bet the river, and get called down by overpair or the like.

Would CR the flop, lead the turn be better, as you only need this to work 1/3 of the time as El D's post suggested? It might be even better than that since if you do get called, you still have a ton of outs to draw to and the 1/3 assumed that you'd lose every time you were called.

On the river if they were bluffing previously, you want them to continue bluffing. However, given play on earlier streets, you might already be behind bigger Ax overcards as mentioned, and in this case you want them to fold. If your table image is that strong, your opponent is weak-tight, and you frequently CR the turn, betting out here may get a better ace to fold. Without more information I prefer check-calling. I believe you will be ahead more than 1 out of 4.5 times here if your overcard read is good.