Limit O8 hand

I'm in a very loose 10-20 game, only one of whom I've never played w/. I'm on the button and 5 people limp to me. I call w/ Ac8cJJ. First question : is this a bad call? I thought it'd have very good possibilities and would see it for one bet. SB calls, BB(Unknown) calls. Flop comes Jc7c3d. BB bets - I haven't seen him show down many weak hands in the 1.5 hrs I'd been there, so I give him credit for a nut low or another set of trips. One call, raised by a player who prolly has a similar type (nut low draw, maybe w/ clubs or trips). Another call by a calling station and I raise. Call to BB who re-raises. call, call to me and I cap it . All call.


5 of us see the turn: 6s.


Board : 367J - two clubs.


BB bets, call, call, I raise, call, BB raises, call, call, I re-raise(bad play here? I figure there's a good chance I'm ahead w/ a ton of outs for a monster if BB has the A245. BB caps it. All call.


5 see the river of Td.

Board : 367JT - rainbow.


BB bets, call, call to me, I raise, all call. Anyone like this raise?


Results to follow.


To recap : BB was unknown, flop raiser was fairly passive, but likes to raise low draws or trips, the rest were habitual calling stations.

I get shown A2 by pre-flop raiser and A45 by BB.

I lose a monster pot.


Thanks for the comments.

1. Two low cards on the flop. Immediately, you must devalue your hand. However, with the nut flush draw and top set, raising and capping is the right play in a multiway pot.


2. The low is made on the turn and it is very likely that someone has a straight (Remember, in Omaha8, "if its possible, its probable). I would just call. Yes, you are getting 4 callers, but since you are splitting the low, instead of 4-1 odds, you're only getting 2-1 odds on your bet. Actually, you're putting in 80 to win 120. Or only 3-2. There are 9 clubs left, and another 8 cards that can fill you up/quads. So 17/44 give you a flush or better. However, only 10 actually give you the nuts. Your capping on the turn isn't an awful play, but it seems marginally better to just call. You may get more people to pay off if you do improve because they might think you have the low, but that all depends on the game.


3. The river is an awful raise. End of story.


This hand illustrates the vulnerability of oneway hands in Omaha8. Once the low comes, you must play very conservatively until your hand is made. Often, I'll fold top set if three low cards come on the flop.


Tim

Preflop, I'd say that your hand is marginal. You have no reasonnable chance for low and your hand is not quite strong enough for high. Maybe you can play it if your opponents are very weak and will chase a lot. I would fold this hand most of the time.


On the flop, you have 2 low cards which means that you will split the pot a very high portion of the time. This lowers the value of your hand a lot, although you flopped a monster for high. Your cap on the flop is aggressive.


On the turn, forget it, you are blessed if the str8 is not already out, and for sure you are only playing for half the pot. You are drawing and I would play cautiously, i.e. not raise. I just don't think there's a good chance you are ahead.


The river, well, you almost have to muck, but by the way the hand was played the pot is huge and you could make a crying over-overcall. Expect to lose to a str8 here very very often.


Nicolas

I would have backed off on the turn. You no longer have the nuts. You have a one way hand and are drawing for half the pot. I would try to play cheaply in this situation and see what the river brings.


On the river I definitely wouldn't raise. You didn't get there. With four opponents it is likely that someone is holding a straight. Either fold or make a crying call since you close the action.

Prince,


I have been reading your posts on 2+2 for a while and respect what you are saying.


I do have a question for you about your statement "hand is not quite strong enough for high"


For one bet on the button and several limpers, this hand has several scoop possibilities - full house, nut flush and broadway - IMHO. Is this type of thinking a leak in my play or is this the "Marginal" type of hand that is open to a players table feel, position and judgement of other players?

Well, after I posted my answer I made a sim using Poker Probe. That hand wins about 11.5% against 9 other random hands, but basically, you'll win the high side about 10% of the time. So it's not going to be a hand that you can make a living on. Compare this to a hand like AcAsKcQs that will win high 20% of the time.


I think the hand is playable (from a late position) IF you can play pretty well on the flop and beyond and if your opponents are weak. I mean, it's like 76s in holdem, if you don't play well on the flop, you might as well fold it.


In Omaha 8, you really have to concentrate on the low side. If you can't, I think you have to have a top notch hand for high only. Because most of the time you will be splitting the pot. A hand like Ac8cJhJd does have some scooping possibilities but aside from the nut flush draw I think many players will get in trouble with for exemple the pair of jacks. First, if you flop top set, a str8 draw and/or a low draw will be out. Second, if you flop middle or bottom set, a str8 or a higher set are likely. These are all things that makes it difficult for you to extract the most value out of your hand because it will be very hard to know for exemple if you really have the best high hand or if you are drawing.


Just consider this: if you change the jacks to kings -- Ac8cKhKd -- this hand will win the high side about 16% of the time, a huge difference.


I am not an expert at Omaha8, yet /images/smile.gif, so I try to avoid these hand that can quikly get me into trouble against a big field.


Nicolas

Thanks for the input - you are right about the JJ being KK - much more powerful. I never new what the exact % was - I normally play by feel + logic.


Last night I won a huge pot with a similar, but what I feel was much better hand A3h JJ in the cutoff - 8 players to a capped pot! Flop was J92 rainbow with one heart. 6 players called my raise. 8H on the turn - 5 players called my bet and button's st8 raise. 8d came on the river:)

The hand is marginal at best. I would not play it. It is the type of hand that will win a little or lose a lot. I do not play high only hands unless all four cards are working (not just the 8 as a flush card). 6, 7, 8 and 9 are useless cards, generally. For example, AT suited and JJ. Now, you have the pair, flush and AJ straight draw. But you also have the JT and AT straight draws ... and Js full of Ts is better than Js full of 8s. And ... if two Ts fall, your trips or full house have better chance of being the biggest than if they were 8s. All of these things seem small, but cumulatively, they add up to precious additional outs. They hand is still not premium or even very good but it is at least good.


As to the Ah3hJJ being "similar, but much better", well, it is much better. But since it is much better, it cannot be similar.

If you have ATJJ it is not likely you will make Jacks full of tens (remember you have to use two from your hand). Anyway, I would rather make Jacks full of eights than Jacks full of tens, because people are more likely to play a pair of tens then a pair of eights.


Bama Gambler

Yes, I realize that Js full of Ts is unlikely but so is Js full of 8s. I acknowledged that some of the outs are small possibilities. Also, the hand I mentioned really is not that good. The point was that it has significant advantages over the hand originally posted and that is because the T is more connected with the other three cards than the 8.

i dont play omaha 8 but im going to start. i do know enough to say that you played this very poorly from the turn on. you have a huge flop for your hand which is great and capping it there is right but you went overboard on the turn when it's clear that youre now vying for just half the pot and that youre definitely behind. you should be calling bets on the turn with NO raising. on the river you should fold, you are beat with all those callers before you. you should learn more about omaha 8 before playing anymore.

I agree that this is a marginal holding at best. JJ, IMO, is best as a safety valve or plan B...like when you are playing a hand like A2JJ, where you call hoping to go low and back into a high hand.


Top set with Jacks is pretty hopless unless you fill up, because unless you DO fill up, there will be a bigger set possible by the river and/or a straight can (will) be made. If there is any conceiveable way for you to knock someone out on the flop, by all means do it. If all you are holding is top set with Jacks, and you still hold the nuts on the turn, there should only be about 10 cards which don't terrify you on the river.


With Queens, you at least can tell yourself that if you flop top set, you could wind up with the absolute (high) nuts on the river...with a board such as QT7-4-2. Note: You will not be so forutnate as to have this happen. At least, I never will be. Then, after sweating it out, you can split the pot with the booger eating moron who cold called 3 bets preflop with A995.


If your primary draw is to a pocket pair, you shouldn't take too many liberties unless you have Aces or Kings.


Please bear in mind that my experience has been mainly at low limits in games where there are very few solid players. People just stick around to the end to crack whatever you have.


"Jacks" = "Cracks"

Lurker -


"I call w/ Ac8cJJ. First question : is this a bad call?"


Tempting to call with this hand, isn’t it? Assuming the blind is almost certain to check, the cost to see the flop is ten bucks. Playable flops include club-club-club, club-club-X, T-9-X, J-X-X, A-A-X.


1*47*46/2 + 1*46*45/2 +10*9*8/6 + 10*9*30/2 + 4*3*20 + 3*43 = 1081+1035+120+1350+240+129 = 3955


I make it about 3955 playable flops for your Ac8cJJ.


3955/17296 = 0.2287


Looks like about 23% of the possible flops are playable with Ac8cJJ. You're still on a draw with most of these flops. The odds against liking the flop are close to 3 to 1. You're getting 6 to 1 pot odds. Some of that is for a split pot and some is for a scooper. Most of the time after the flop you'll be drawing for 8-10 outs, roughly 2 to 1 against, considering there are two cards yet to come.


You can jam if you hit on the flop or the turn. Or you can jam if you hit on the river. Let's assume if you miss on the river and the pot is not too large, then you're gone. With seven opponents seeing the flop, and with no pre-flop raising, roughly nine times out of twelve you’ll miss the flop and fold, losing ten bucks each time, (-$90). Two times out of twelve you'll continue after the flop, most likely still on a draw - but you’ll miss your draw. Let’s assume one bet each betting round, and no raising. In that case, you’ll be paying another $10 to see the turn, and then another $20 to see the river (-$60). Looks like it’ll cost you a total of about $150 the eleven times out of twelve when you miss.


One time out of twelve, you'll make your hand, the nuts for high. Assuming one bet each betting round, and assuming five opponents see these bets for each betting round after the flop, there will be 32 small bets from opponents in the pot or $320 of their money. Half of the time low won't come in when you draw after the flop and you’ll scoop ($160). The other half the time you’ll only win high ($120/2-$30). Your take will average about $160 + $30 = $190.


Those figures are pretty rough, but it looks like you'll make $190-$150 = $40 per 12 tries. Looks like you have an e.v. of about $3 per try.


"I thought it'd have very good possibilities and would see it for one bet. SB calls, BB(Unknown) calls. Flop comes Jc7c3d. BB bets - I haven't seen him show down many weak hands in the 1.5 hrs I'd been there, so I give him credit for a nut low or another set of trips."


Nut low draw probably. He'd have to be playing a pair of sevens to have middle set. On the basis of your description of this player, doesn't sound like the kind of player who would see the flop with a pair of sevens. He might have a pair of threes, as in AA33ds, A233, A334 or 2334, but would he bet bottom set here? Nut low draw looks most reasonable.


"One call, raised by a player who prolly has a similar type (nut low draw, maybe w/ clubs or trips)."


Sounds like a good game.


"Another call by a calling station and I raise."


You have top set and nut club draw. You need the board to pair or you need a club. You have 14 outs to the nuts for high and only 4 of your outs put low on the board. The hands odds are roughly 2.2 to 1 against making your draw and getting anything back.


There is enough money already in the pot for you to call, even with only one active opponent.


Raising is a different matter. With hand odds of 2.2 to 1 against you, you need at least three opponents to justify raising. With three opponents you’d be getting 3 to 1 on your investment, better than the hand odds against you. Most of your outs don't put low on the board. Here you have five opponents, two more than you need to raise. You're in Omaha-8 heaven! By all means, raise.


"Call to BB who re-raises. call, call to me and I cap it . All call.

5 of us see the turn: 6s. Board : 367J - two clubs."


Drat. Low. We need to refigure. Now you have 16 outs to the nuts with one card yet to come. Hand odds are 28 to 16 against you or 1.75 to 1 against you. There’s enough in the pot to justify calling.


Is there enough for a raise? Fresh money you should initiate into the pot only depends on how many opponents will also contribute. If you initiate a bet or raise of $20, with five opponents, since you're only probably going to win half the pot, you stand to win $40.


If this isn’t crystal clear to you, use two different colors of $10 chips. Put two blue chips in the pot to represent each investment you make (bet, raise, re-raise, etc.). Put two white chips in the pot for each of your five opponents. That’s a total of twelve chips, two of them yours, for each bet or raise. At the showdown, when you win, you’ll get half the chips in the pot. Put your two blue chips in the half you win and see how many opponent’s chips are also in your half of the pot.


There will be four opponent’s chips in your half of the pot for every two of your chips. With four opponents, you’re risking two chips to win four chips. Thus you’re getting 4 to 2 or 2 to 1 fresh bet odds. You need to get more than 1.75 to 1 to have a favorable bet initiation situation. And you’re getting it.


"BB bets, call, call, I raise, call, BB raises, call, call, I re-raise(bad play here?"


No. Good play. Hand odds are 1.75 to 1 against you while fresh bet odds with five opponents are 2 to 1. Jam! You'll lose more often than you'll win, but you'll win enough when you do win to justify your losses.


"5 see the river of Td. Board : 367JT - rainbow."


Oops. 45 or 89 makes a straight. Looks like this time you lost. Another time you'll win.


"BB bets, call, call to me, I raise, all call. Anyone like this raise?"


Because of the size of the pot, I think you're stuck calling here. However, without the nuts raising is probably not prudent, although by raising here you might knock a foolish weak/tight player off the second nut straight. The other plus is by raising here these opponents will be more likely to call your raises when you do have the nuts. Yeah, you seem to waste your money by raising here, but if you do it just this once, maybe it's not such a bad investment.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

One issue, but minor, is that you say he has 16 outs on the turn. no, he has 8 NUT outs. The case Jack and the other 7 clubs that don't pair the board. Quads have beaten me so many times in Omaha8...esp. when you have a multiway pot. often one or two other players will have sets.


I like your point about the river raise: yes, he's almost surely beaten, but I've seen plenty of players lay down second best straight/flushes. Also future bets will more than make up for it, IMO.


This hand is an example of why you should only play Omaha8 with an A2 in the hand :^)


Tim

Tim - "One issue, but minor, is that you say he has 16 outs on the turn. no, he has 8 NUT outs. The case Jack and the other 7 clubs that don't pair the board. Quads have beaten me so many times in Omaha8...esp. when you have a multiway pot. often one or two other players will have sets."


Actually I made a mistake. I should have written that he had 17 outs on the turn. But you're correct that he has only eight nut outs, the case jack and the seven clubs that don't pair the board.


I'm simply going to get burned every time an opponent catchs a seven, six, or three and makes quads. I don't see any way around the problem. If I'm always worried about someone catching quads, an unlikely occurance, I'm going to miss a lot of good bets in the meanwhile - enough bets to more than make up for the times I get burned by quads. It's simply too conservative to not usually bet the top full house. If it is too conservative to worry about an opponent making quads when betting, then when figuring odds it's also too conservative to worry about and opponent making quads. I figured it out one time and as I recall it was something like nineteen to one against your top full house being beaten by quads against a random field of hands at a full table. I'm not going to miss nineteen good bets because one time out of twenty I get burned by quads.


This would be especially true for quad sevens and quad sixes, and even for quad threes. Before the flop I'm usually folding hands with low pairs. (Obvious exceptions would be hands like A223 or A233).


"I like your point about the river raise: yes, he's almost surely beaten, but I've seen plenty of players lay down second best straight/flushes."


Thanks. I've seen it too.


"Also future bets will more than make up for it, IMO."


It surely is difficult to play against someone who you have seen raise on the river with a set when there are two possible straights on the board. Easy to fall into the trap of tending to always call someone who raises without the nuts on the river. Some very good players suck others in by false advertising. Then when you miss your draw but call them anyhow, they show down the nuts. False advertising is a fairly common ploy in the games in which I regularly play.


"This hand is an example of why you should only play Omaha8 with an A2 in the hand"


I agree A2 is nice. /images/smile.gif


While I am at it, I see another mistake in my post. I wrote, "There will be four opponent’s chips in your half of the pot for every two of your chips. With four opponents, you’re risking two chips to win four chips. Thus you’re getting 4 to 2 or 2 to 1 fresh bet odds. You need to get more than 1.75 to 1 to have a favorable bet initiation situation. And you’re getting it."


Make that five opponents. Sorry. Lurker had five opponents at this point and I figured the fresh bet odds for five opponents. Don't know how I typed "four" instead of "five."


Again, just my opinion. And never a guarantee my numbers are correct.


Buzz

"Your take will average about $160 + $30 = $190"


That should be ($160 + $30)/2 = $95

"Your take will average about $160 + $30 = $190"

That should be ($160 + $30)/2 = $95


Chaos - Yes. Thanks for the correction.


Buzz

Actually, another reason I think for not raising is that with many players in and seeing raises, the cards that you need to fill up are gone. In other words, the remaining 3,6,7,J are most likely in players hands.


So while you may have, in fact, 17 outs, your "real life" outs are probably much fewer.


Example: Omaha 8 yesterday. family pot


my hand: 5-Q-K-K


Flop: 4-7-K

Turn: 10

River: 3


The case king , two sevens, three fours and two tens were in the other players hands. This left me with two live cards.


Yes, also, I agree you can't worry about quads. But from a purely statistical pov, you must include them.


Tim

“Actually, another reason I think for not raising is that with many players in and seeing raises, the cards that you need to fill up are gone. In other words, the remaining 3,6,7,J are most likely in players hands.

So while you may have, in fact, 17 outs, your "real life" outs are probably much fewer.”


Tim - I like your terminology here - “real life outs.” And I do see your point. Phat Mack made a similar argument in a post here a while back. He didn’t call them “real life” outs but his reasoning was much the same as yours, that some of the cards you need are held by your opponents.


However, some of the cards you *don’t* need are also held by your opponents. Thus when you have 17 outs, it’s true that some of the cards you’d like to see are almost certain to be in the hands of your opponents. But it’s also true that some of the cards you don’t want to see are almost certainly in the hands of your opponents. Alas, you generally can’t tell how many of which.


I’ll grant that the more opponents you have the more likely one of them is to have a decent hand. However, just because you have more opponents, you can’t arbitrarily assume you have less of a chance of making your draw.


At least I honestly don’t think you should look at it that way. On the surface, it seems reasonable that the more opponents you have, the more cards you need are in the hands of your opponents. But isn’t that putting too much faith in the good judgment your opponents? My experience is some of my opponents hang in there after the flop with hands that don’t really match the flop very well. These are the hands that occasionally give you a bad beat, but that more often end up face down in the muck. Another possibility is that your opponents may have decent draws to other possible nut hands.


For example, in your example hand from yesterday, the flop is 4-7-K and you have 5-Q-K-K. Other decent draws would be 3-5-6-8 and A-2-3-5. No one staying in the hand necessarily has *any* of the cards you need to make your draw (a full house or quads). As it turns out, your opponents did hold many of the cards you needed, but they might just as well not have held the cards you needed.


“Example: Omaha 8 yesterday. family pot

my hand: 5-Q-K-K

Flop: 4-7-K

Turn: 10

River: 3

The case king , two sevens, three fours and two tens were in the other players hands. This left me with two live cards.”


Yes, it happens. In this particular isolated example you were left with a diluted pool of cards. But it could just as well have been the other way around.


“I agree you can't worry about quads. But from a purely statistical pov, you must include them.”


Agreed. Let me make a correction in my previous post. I wrote that as I recalled, the odds were 19 to 1 against one of your opponents making quads when you have made the nut full house. I recalled wrongly. Actually when someone has the nut boat, I calculate the probability of one of eight opponents having been dealt the particular pair that would make quads as 0.05316, making the odds against quads greater than 18 to 1 rather than 19 to 1. "Greater" than 18 to 1 because whoever was dealt the low pair that would lead to quads might very well have chosen to muck the hand.


If you always bet your nut full house, one time in nineteen you’re going to get burned by quads, but probably for only two bets (because when someone raises you here you’re going to suspect quads and just call). By betting your nut full house the other eighteen out of nineteen times, you’re going to collect more than two bets from other players with non-nut full houses, and perhaps also collect some bets from players without full houses.


But there seems no way around getting burned for two bets that one time out of nineteen when an opponent has quads.


Just my opinion. /images/smile.gif


Buzz