TPTK - river brings 3-flush

[maryfield48]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero...?

[dfscott]

I still bet this river and call a raise. There are a lot of other draws beside the flush and you might catch a bluff raise on the end.

[spacemonkey57]

Against a typical party LP player I'd bet the river here.

[jrz1972]

Typical value-betting situation. This is not even remotely a close decision IMO.

[crockett]

Hero bets....

Mary,

I see you survived the hurricane...last I heard you were shutting down for a few days because the Island was one big swirl on my T.V. screen.

I also see you've left PS's and are now playing in the big house. I skimmed my bankroll and am now starting over at Party. If you have the same handle as PS's I'll look for you. I've been getting beat up pretty bad but I'm slowly gaining ground and looking forward to 1/2.

[wyattjames4]

isnt this the typical situation where only someone who has you beat will call, but someone who doesnt have anything will fold. there are a number of draws that didnt hit. obviously the flush draw is the most obvious. and if the flush did hit than the caller would be right to go for the check raise on someone who has lead the whole way. i dont see how the one additional bet you may win occasionally from someone who cant even beat TPTK will out way the extra bet or two youll lose more often than not.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt this the typical situation where only someone who has you beat will call, but someone who doesnt have anything will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some players at this level who will call down with anything and everything. If you bet, many players will routinely call with any 9, any 8, any 6, any 4, pocket deuces, a busted draw (because, you know, you might be bluffing so they have to call to keep you honest even though they can't even beat a bluff), etc. You just asolutely have to value-bet this river.

If you don't yet have PokerTracker, get it. It is literally amazing to see the crap that people call down with.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt this the typical situation where only someone who has you beat will call, but someone who doesnt have anything will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct if you assume thinking players, however, I think you'll see hands like A-rag, 9T, 78, etc., call you for one bet.

[crockett]

What everyone else said above plus the bonus times when an Ace chaser hits with their A6o and raises the river. You call thinking "great, he hit the flush" and surprisingly find out he just has a pair with a lower kicker.

BTW, no one is saying you won't get raised/called and lose but most feel in this situation you will be called and win enough times to make it a profitable bet.

[wyattjames4]

so you really think then that for every one time you get checkraised and lose 2 bb that youll get called two plus times by someone who cant beat TPTK? thats not a smart @ss question either, i find it hard to believe.

[elitegimp]

[ QUOTE ]
so you really think then that for every one time you get checkraised and lose 2 bb that youll get called two plus times by someone who cant beat TPTK? thats not a smart @ss question either, i find it hard to believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

the typical low-limit players aren't very good and will routinely call river bets with 2nd pair, top pair no kicker, or any pocket pair. So, yes... you will be called more than twice as often as you're check-raised.

[dfscott]

Even if he does fold on the river, you get another benefit: it drives the fish crazy not knowing what you had and makes it that much more likely that you'll get called with nothing next time.

[dfscott]

And even if he does fold on the river, you get another benefit: it drives the fish crazy not knowing what you had and makes it that much more likely that you'll get called with nothing next time.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
so you really think then that for every one time you get checkraised and lose 2 bb that youll get called two plus times by someone who cant beat TPTK? thats not a smart @ss question either, i find it hard to believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see why it's hard to believe, but yes, betting here is definitely +EV. As crockett mentioned, sometimes your hand will actually be good even when you're check-raised.

One of the points that Ed Miller makes in SSHE is that at this level, a lot of your profits come from incompetent players calling you down with weak hands. You forfeit this advantage if you don't get your river bets in there.

If you're seriously contemplating checking behind on this river, I think that's a classic symptom of weak-tight play. Your opponent probably was not on a flush draw. Keep punishing him!

[Reqtech]

You're assuming that the other player is good. This is a costly error on .50/1 at Party, IMO. Players will call down with any pair, and I also wouldn't be surprised if the guy is holding just a king high.

Another tidbit that makes the bet here automatic, is that the villian might fold, so no one knows what you had. Which is nice, I think.

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt this the typical situation where only someone who has you beat will call, but someone who doesnt have anything will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my thinking, so I checked. Villain had Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and was on a gutshot draw. I think it's unlikely he'd have called. But that doesn't mean it's wrong to bet. I think the posters here make good points.

[kenberman]

it's a gigantic leak in your game if you slow down/fold every time a 3 flush appears on board.