8-8 All-In Situation

[MikeyEdge]

Six players are left in a single table tournament. The blinds are 100-200 (about to go to 200-400 the next hand). To start the hand UTG has 2,000, CO has 4,000 and the Button has 6,000.

UTG goes all-in for 2,000. CO calls. You are on the button and you are 99.9% sure that neither player has a pocket pair. Most likely A-X for both. You have 8-8 on the button. What do you do?

A.) Fold
B.) Raise all-in.
C.) Call

Results to follow.

[rjb03]

How are you ever 99.9% sure that both opponents have Ax?

[jcm4ccc]

Given your read, it's a simple math problem.

99.9% probability of Ax and Ax. Let's play it conservative and say they both have 2 overcards to your 8-8. Your chance of winning a three-way all-in is 45.0% (twodimes.net)

0.1% probability of a higher pair. Your chance of winning a three-way all-in is 18%.

0.01% probability of 2 higher pairs (0.1% * 0.1%). Your chance of winning a three way all-in is 17%.

(45% * 99.9%) + (18% * 0.1%) + (17% * 0.01%) = 45%

You have a 45% chance of winning. Seems like an easy all-in, given that you have both stacks covered. Of course, there is still the 1 in 1000 chance that one of them is holding a higher pair, but that seems a risk worth taking.

[patrick dicaprio]

not sure how you can ever be that sure but this shoudl be an easy call if you know they both have AX especially if there is some chance that 8>X. give one player Kx and one Ax and maybe it is different i would have to do the calculations.

Pat

[Jman28]

As everyone said, this is a pretty strong read you have.. 99.9%.

Given that, you would love to play against those two. The problem is with the blinds still to act.

Their stack sizes are pretty important here.

-Jman28

[Benholio]

The problem is, even if they would both definately make that move with Ax every time they had a chance, if they would still make that move with a pocket pair you can't discount it that easily.

Even [maniacs / loose players / fish / whatever read you have on someone] will get dealt a good hand sometimes. Not to mention they could easily have 2 not very good hands and have you in bad shape (JQs + ATo, for example).

I would keep my 6000 chips here (I assume thats a good stack at this tournament) and wait for better opportunities.

[MikeyEdge]

Thanks for everyone's input.

<<How are you ever 99.9% sure that both opponents have Ax?>>
I've been playing with these players for a few years. All signs pointed to A-X. If you don't want to beleive me, thats ok.

I moved all-in. My read was right. I was up against A-9 (UTG) and A-Q (CO). I came up with a 45% chance to win as well. However a Queen fell on the flop and river.

Even though I had the advantage I kind of feel like a misplayed it anyway. I have 6,000 going in and I have a 45% chance at doubling up. I would say its probably not worth it. With 6,000 left, I could have picked a better spot to double up.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Six players are left in a single table tournament. The blinds are 100-200 (about to go to 200-400 the next hand). To start the hand UTG has 2,000, CO has 4,000 and the Button has 6,000.

UTG goes all-in for 2,000. CO calls. You are on the button and you are 99.9% sure that neither player has a pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

99.9% sure?

OK, if the UTG had an AA, how would he have bet? KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99? Are you saying that the UTG will almost never go all-in with these hands, given the blinds of 200/400 and the fact that he is the short stack?

OK, the UTG has gone all-in. The bet is 2000 or so to the CO. What would the CO do if he had AA (probably all-in). But what about KK, QQ, JJ, TT, or 99? Are you saying that he would never call the bet?

I think you were using your read to justify a risky bet. If you want to challenge that statement, then answer these questions. What would the UTG have bet with an AA? KK? QQ? JJ? TT? 99?