I love this game. ..Was/Cincy

[Zoltri]

Washington (-3) over Cincinnati

A few years ago I picked a betting tip I would like to share with you. This is a stat "tell" that really applies to this game.

DRA-Defensive rush attempts

DRA is the amount of times teams run the ball on you. In other words, teams that win usually have low rush attempts against them because the ability to stop the run as well as they are usually winning and the other team must pass to catch up.

Check this link from NFL.com and notice the top and bottom teams. Washington is 3rd (27.4 att/gm)and Cincy is last (33 att/gm).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-RUSHING/2004/regular?sort_col_1=4

I should point out I dont start using this stat until the middle of the season to get a true indication. I cant tell you how many times I have used this and won. I love situations like this game (top/bottom) especially when the spread is reasonable. Many times there are games like this, however, the spread is usually much higher than three. I love it when I see the wrong team favoured based on this stat.

Its a moneymaker and I dont base my decision solely on this stat but it is my favourite one. Just like anything else use with caution.
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[kyro]

i'm confused. are you saying washington's DRA is indicative of their stellar 3-5 record?

[Zoltri]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm confused. are you saying washington's DRA is indicative of their stellar 3-5 record?

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Actually, 4 of those losses were by 6 points or less so even though their record does not show it they are better than 3-5.

Also like to point out this is their only soft spot for a while. Next opponents are Philly, Steelers, Giants and Philly again. Tough sledding.

[MikeyObviously]

I'm taking cincy +3. Cincy cannot stop the run. I am making this bet based on the coaches and quarterbacks. Joe Gibbs will get out coached by Marvin Lewis, bottom line. Also, Mark Brunell is looking terrible and Carson Palmer is showing nothing but good signs. I would turn it into a no bet if I found out Ramsey was starting instead.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Cincy cannot stop the run. I am making this bet based on the coaches and quarterbacks. Joe Gibbs will get out coached by Marvin Lewis, bottom line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Marvin Lewis has not yet shown the ability to outcoach Joe Gibbs. Gibbs is building his team the old fashioned way, good defense and run the ball. Both of these matchups favor the Redskins here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Mark Brunell is looking terrible

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His stats may look a lot better after going against Cinci's Defense.

[ QUOTE ]
Carson Palmer is showing nothing but good signs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Against the better defenses he's faced he has not been particularly effective. He's improving to be sure but if Cinci can't run the ball he's not yet ready to win the game for them.

The matchups favor Washington here and they are at home. IF I play this game, I take the Skins -3.

[Zoltri]

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Joe Gibbs will get out coached by Marvin Lewis, bottom line.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, you have dont have a clue about football do you? Joe Gibbs has won the Super Bowl 3 times and a Hall of Famer. What the hell has Marvin Lewis accomplished?

[MrGo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Joe Gibbs will get out coached by Marvin Lewis, bottom line.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, you have dont have a clue about football do you? Joe Gibbs has won the Super Bowl 3 times and a Hall of Famer. What the hell has Marvin Lewis accomplished?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, maybe Gibbs was a good coach in the 80's but he's horrible today. He should have stayed in redneck (Nascar) racing.

[MikeyObviously]

Joe Gibbs has been getting outcoached all year. It's pretty bad when defenses are able to call out the play before the snap, which has been the account from multiple games this season. Gibbs has the motivational skills still obviously, those don't change over time. However, Gibbs and staff are getting outschemed week to week. You my friend must not know anything about football.

[Zoltri]

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Dude, maybe Gibbs was a good coach in the 80's but he's horrible today. He should have stayed in redneck (Nascar) racing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nascar....did you know he won 2 out of the last 4 Winston Cup Championships.If you're keeping score, that's five championships in two sports. How many people can say that?

The guy is a winner and 8 games into a season will not wash away his success in my mind.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Joe Gibbs will get out coached by Marvin Lewis, bottom line.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, you have dont have a clue about football do you? Joe Gibbs has won the Super Bowl 3 times and a Hall of Famer. What the hell has Marvin Lewis accomplished?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, maybe Gibbs was a good coach in the 80's but he's horrible today. He should have stayed in redneck (Nascar) racing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have watched every Washington game this season. They should be 5-3 if not for 2 horrific officiating jobs in the Dallas and Green Bay games. The biggest leak on their team is the injury to RT Jon Jansen, which has basically crippled their O-line. Remember, Brunell is left-handed, so the RT is the most important position on the O-line when he's playing. I think Brunell is having a terrible year, but many of his fumbles/int's are coming as a direct result of poor RT play.

I will say this--Washington is playing significantly better football this year, in all areas, than they were last year. Gibbs was a little rusty those first few games, but I think he's starting to hit his stride. The Gibbs formula still works--establish the run, get big plays through play action, max protect the qb, and play great defense. I think Washington goes 4-4 or 5-3 to finish out the year. To say Gibbs is a poor coach, is like saying Parcells is a poor coach because his team is doing worse this year -- it's absolutely baseless.