Choose your own line: KK.

[MoreWineII]

UB 3/6. Multi-tabling so minimal reads. This table is kind of passive-ish.

Hero has KK in MP. One limper to hero who raises. Everyone folds except the limper.

Flop is J5Jr. Limper bets, hero..?

What's your line and why?

Here are some possibilites.

A.) Calls down, bets if checked to.

B.) Raises the flop, calls a 3-bet. Folds turn unimproved. Or calls down.

C.) Calls flop, raises turn, folds to a 3-bet. Or calls down.

D.) Folds to the flop bet. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Evan]

e) raises the flop, calls a 3 bet and then raises the turn.

[LowDown22]

A.) Calls down, bets if checked to.

If he has a Jack I'm way behind, anything else besides 55 and I'm way ahead. Only fear one overcard. I'll let him bet for me and I don't want to scare him off.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
e) raises the flop, calls a 3 bet and then raises the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
LAG.

This is like Ed's QQ hand, neh? Raising may make worse hands (PP's like 88) fold, and will lose the most to a J. Everything except A5 is drawing pretty slim to you here, so I'm calling and betting the river (or turn) if it's checked to me.

Rob

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]

LAG.

This is like Ed's QQ hand, neh? Raising may make worse hands (PP's like 88) fold, and will lose the most to a J. Everything except A5 is drawing pretty slim to you here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly. In this hand, some players will call you down just because they don't believe you. In Ed's hand, anyone bluffing would just fold to aggression.

Without a read, I think I call down and bet if checked to, but this one is much more read sensitive than Ed's is.

[MoreWineII]

That was pretty much my thinking. I'm heads-up. If I raised, I was probably going to lose anything but Jx. This table was pretty passive. And Jx was just going to make my life miserable. Also, the board is pretty draw-poor.

[Homer315]

I like calling the flop, then raising the turn. I think far too often, when someone is heads up and the flop pairs, they will try to bluff at it, hoping to get a better hand to fold. If that's the case, the guy will fold to the turn raise, but you will have gotten three small bets instead of two, which might be the case if you raised the flop, then got the guy to check/fold the turn.

If 3 bet on the turn, I might still call down. Guy might have a lower pocket pair and figure that the flop was more likely to miss the raiser since it's got a pair.

[Festus22]

A) Call down, bet if checked to.

Check out this Tommy Angelo post in Mid/High.

Aces w/QQ on the Board (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1232680&page=1&view=expan ded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=)

Deja vu? And when Clarkmeister says that's how he plays it, I would give that some major weight.

[joker122]

Pretty stanard call - call - raise hand.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
This is like Ed's QQ hand, neh?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeh.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty stanard call - call - raise hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Call - call - bet (if checked to), or call - call - raise?

Rob

[Octopus]

Sure, if your image is squeaky tight (as in the referenced post), but what if your opponents think you are very aggressive? Then he will probably pay you off with A-high or worse (and may even keep bluffing).

I think this is a good default line, but this situation is more read and image dependent than many of the other call-call-bet/raise situations.

[MoreWineII]

You knew another jack was going to hit on the river? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Festus22]

I would have a hard time trying to base my play on what I think my opponent thinks about how I play. I made a post earlier today where I get caught trying to think what my opponent thinks I HAVE as a hand and the verdict was not to bother against most players. For them to be thinking about how I play is probably another notch beyond that. Most probably aren't paying attention anyway. And one person's definition of tight or aggressive can be radically different than another's. In this post, we have no meta-game information so the "default" play should apply.

[Octopus]

I absolutely agree, in general. This flop is the exception. For whatever reason it is this flop that makes many people think you are bluffing and makes them want to fight back or call down with little.

Having said that, I normally would go with the default play. (Is that redundant?)

[Octopus]

Actually, at one time I argued (with a slightly different setup) that a large number of players would bluff at this flop and that anyone who actually had trips would likely wait for the turn. From there I suggested fighting back with almost anything. (At the time I was accused of "reckless chip spewing".) While I now agree that my argument then was flawed, I still believe that this type of flop generates more action by weaker hands than just about any other.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling the flop, then raising the turn. I think far too often, when someone is heads up and the flop pairs, they will try to bluff at it, hoping to get a better hand to fold. If that's the case, the guy will fold to the turn raise, but you will have gotten three small bets instead of two.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you put him on a hand he will fold for a turn raise, then raising the turn makes no sense. You're not worried that he will draw out on you with a ragged, paired rainbow flop. Let him bet it all the way down, and collect 5 small bets instead of 3. If he checks the river, bet it.

The only place I could see folding this hand would be if you call the flop, and get check-raised on the turn. Even there, I would need well-supported data that this guy is typically very passive to fold this overpair.

[sfer]

Against an unknown, call/call/call, bet if checked.

Some players will habitually bet any pair into you here, and those I will raise.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Call - call - bet (if checked to), or call - call - raise?


[/ QUOTE ]

oops. bet if checked to.

[MoreWineII]

The consensus seems to be the call down/bet if checked to option and so did I, until...

River was a third jack. bet, hero raises...

Yes?

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
The consensus seems to be the call down/bet if checked to option and so did I, until...

River was a third jack. bet, hero raises...

Yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There really is no other way to play this hand IMO. This is a perfect example of the call down/bet if checked to line. Players who want to raise on the flop or turn have to seriously reconsider this.

[Pil Sung Do]

B.) Raises the flop, calls a 3-bet. Folds turn unimproved. Or calls down.

This is closest to what I would expect.
Raise the flop, bet the turn, fold to a checkraise. And I would check behind on the river too.

A lot of players won't threebet the flop (for fear of scaring you off or because they were actually trying to steal the pot themselves).

[MoreWineII]

I wouldn't be all that thrilled about folding to a flop 3-bet. A flop 3-bet could mean middle pair or just some idiot trying to blow me off of overcards/overpair.

If anything, I'd rather raise the turn. Then if I'm 3-bet, I'd feel a lot more comfortable folding. This play isn't a real fan favorite either because unless villian has Jx, he's probably folding to a turn raise. Therefore, I make 1.5 BB in this scenario from the flop/turn/river, less than I make if I call down. And I'm taking the risk of being 3-bet.

[Pil Sung Do]

I wouldn't be all that thrilled about folding to a flop 3-bet. A flop 3-bet could mean middle pair or just some idiot trying to blow me off of overcards/overpair.

What I was saying is no one has given any thought to the idea that when you reraise, your opponent will just call.
You didn't give us any read on him, and while I know there are some players that will 3 bet, there are just as many that will just call the reraise on the flop (either because they think they're behind or because they feel they are way ahead and don't want to scare you off).

I was not suggesting folding to a three bet on the flop. The action I expect would be this....

Villian bets, you reraise, he calls.
Turn he checks, you bet. If he checkraises here, I think a fold is in order (unless you have a good read on him).

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I was not suggesting folding to a three bet on the flop. The action I expect would be this....

Villian bets, you reraise, he calls.
Turn he checks, you bet. If he checkraises here, I think a fold is in order (unless you have a good read on him).

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about this line you suggest. Count the number of bets you expect to win on average when you are ahead. Count the number of bets you expect to lose on average when you are behind. Now contrast that with the line: call down / bet if checked to.

Remember to consider the fact that if you ARE ahead with the line you are suggesting then you are giving your opponent the opportunity to make an easy fold. Be realistic with your numbers.

[Pil Sung Do]

Are we talking about the river or the entire hand?

Let's say you're ahead 60% of the time.

The pot has less than 3 BB before the flop.

Call down means 4 BB on the turn, and 6 BB on the river and 8 BB in the end.
Meaning you'll win 4.8 BB.

Reraise means there will be 5BB on the turn, 7 BB on the river and a total of 7 if you check behind.(9 if you bet the river too).

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we talking about the river or the entire hand?

Let's say you're ahead 60% of the time.

The pot has less than 3 BB before the flop.

Call down means 4 BB on the turn, and 6 BB on the river and 8 BB in the end.
Meaning you'll win 4.8 BB.

Reraise means there will be 5BB on the turn, 7 BB on the river and a total of 7 if you check behind.(9 if you bet the river too).


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you completely missed my point. I'm sorry to bump this thread but I can tell you are looking at this in the completely wrong fashion.

[ QUOTE ]
UB 3/6. Multi-tabling so minimal reads. This table is kind of passive-ish.

Hero has KK in MP. One limper to hero who raises. Everyone folds except the limper.

Flop is J5Jr. Limper bets, hero..?


[/ QUOTE ]

You want to:[ QUOTE ]
B.) Raises the flop, calls a 3-bet. Folds turn unimproved. Or calls down.

This is closest to what I would expect.
Raise the flop, bet the turn, fold to a checkraise. And I would check behind on the river too.


[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly does your flop raise accomplish? I think it wins you the less money then calling in the long run since you allow your opponent to get away from his hand very cheaply.

Case A:
When he bets the flop if he is bluffing and has a card higher than a Jack he will generally call your flop raise and fold the turn unimproved. If he improves he will probably call your turn and river bets. He is only going to improve 3/46 times. But, if you just call him on the flop he will generally bet the turn and often will bet the river (or even check/call). I think this clearly shows that those times your opponent is bluffing you clearly earn more in the long run by just calling his bets (and betting if he checks to you).

Case B:
When he bets the flop – if he has an underpair to the Jacks he will generally call your flop raise and then proceed to call you down or fold on the turn. If an Ace, King, or Queen shows up on the turn or river he will almost certainly fold. I would estimate, and I think this is a generous estimate for you, that he will call down with a pocket pair around 85% of the time in this situation. So 85% of the time that your opponent has a small pocket pair, and fails to improve, you make one small bet more than I would by simply calling him down or betting if checked to (actually you make around 0.375BB’s more, not 0.5BB’s because he will improve about 12.5% of the time). I concede that in this case your line wins slightly more than my line (around 0.32BB’s).

I really think I’m being very generous in this case because you opponent is going to fold the river a lot here if any card higher than his pocket pair shows up.

Case C:
When your opponent bets he has a Jack. In my line we lose 2.5BB’s on the surface but that isn’t entirely true. If a king hits we will get AT LEAST 1BB more from our opponent (possibly 3 BB’s). I’m going to average this to 1.25BB’s so our actual EV for calling down (ignoring the pre-flop bets) is:
EV = (2.5+1.25)*P – 2.5(1-P)
Where P = 1-44/47*43/46 = 12.5%
Therefore EV = 0.46831 – 2.188 = -1.72BB’s.

The EV of your line (raising the flop and folding to the turn CR when you don’t improve), assuming your opponent calls you down after you 3-bet his turn CR is:
EV = (1+3+1)*p – 2*(1-p)
Where p = 2/27
Therefore EV = -1.702

So, your line saves us 0.018BB’s if our opponent has a jack.

There are a couple of other small cases to consider (when he has pocket 5’s, or when he has a 5 (I think when our opponent has a 5 it will be somewhere in between case a and case b but lean towards case a so the lines may be a wash here)), but I think these 3 cases cover enough of the situations to really tell the tale here. You win SO much more in case A that it will completely cover Case B and Case C. My analysis is really quite rough but I think it shows that calling down IS better than raising the flop here.

From experience calling down has become the clear play to make. I truly believe it makes me a lot more money. I used to play the hand similar to how you suggest but I believe it is way wrong. I think my math is showing it to be closer than it really is and that calling down (betting if checked to) will actually make a fair amount more, in the long run, then the line you suggest will.

[Pil Sung Do]

I used to play the hand similar to how you suggest but I believe it is way wrong. I think my math is showing it to be closer than it really is and that calling down (betting if checked to) will actually make a fair amount more, in the long run, then the line you suggest will.

I guess this means that I have a leak to fix /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I see your reasoning and can't find any arguement against it. Time for me to try something new.

Thanks